OK, I'll tell you EXACTLY what is being measured, in my opinion of course. The data that we DO have to work with here, and there is quite a bit, are all the combines that were done publicly by fellow ET members. We can actually compile, categorize and measure some interesting bits of data. The one that stood out to me over and over and over again was the fact that a large majority of the traders upon failing openly admitted to breaking THEIR own rules, not TST's rules, but THEIRS. That really stood out to me.
Again, we don't have to speculate on this, we have the hard data right here on this board. Over and over and over again it was the common theme. Even our resident active TSTer Austin has made this comment time and time again. Now while it's true these traders also broke TST rules (usually violating the max intra-day drawdown) the fact that they couldn't even follow their own self imposed rules tells you a lot about the type of person doing these combines.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm not chiding them for being newbie or inexperienced traders. I'm simply stating that these traders are a good case study as to why most traders fail in general whether it be with TST, on a free ninja sim or their own funded account. Again, I'm using real data here not just making stuff up why I think guys are failing. And let me further emphasize that Austin, our fellow futures veteran here on ET has been trading futures for over 10 years! And to top that off, the dude sells mentoring services in the thousands of dollars teaching guys how to trade. Yet even with 10 years under his belt, go back and re-read his comments, he talks about not being able to follow his own strategy or his own rules.
This is the point I'm trying to make. Hell, it could the Italian mafia running this combine, it doesn't matter, the main problem here lies with the trader, not silly combine rules. And I have witnessed this first hand at all the trading firms I have worked for. And I stated previously on this thread that the best theory I have here is the fact that all these guys are trading without an edge in a market that really doesn't offer a true edge large enough to compensate for the daily variance in prices. So since these guys have nothing truly to work with, they just throwing everything against the wall hoping something sticks.
This is analogous to an option trader who gets fed up with losing so he just starts selling option premium with impunity. He doesn't have a real edge so he chases the most risky strategy but one that offers the appearance of consistency. This is similar to the ES trader who scalps one tick winners with 10 tick stops. It works, a lot. Until a few stop outs start building up. The general rule in this business is, those without an edge will start to heavily rely on high risk trading or high leverage to generate p&l. And then it's just a matter of gambler's ruin to take over.
