Topsteptrader

[austinp]

Austin, you can't do that. You are data mining. Fine, you were profitable during that 10 day stretch of data. You can't simply annualize those numbers. You could have easily dropped 15k in the next 10 day period, we will never know but we are not seeing a 12 month non interrupted stretch of data from you. You are "showing the winners".

THAT IS MY POINT!!!!

an arbitrary 10-day or 20-day stretch with minimum profit mandates means nothing. So why add the minimum profit mandate as an artificial bar to reality?

hell, Lescor would have failed many combines during his thread run, and he made $600+K that year.

 

[Maverick74]

THAT IS MY POINT!!!!

an arbitrary 10-day or 20-day stretch with minimum profit mandates means nothing. So why add the minimum profit mandate as an artificial bar to reality?

hell, Lescor would have failed many combines during his thread run, and he made $600+K that year.

Austin, I will obviously agree that any 10 or 20 day stretch is meaningless. However I think that is their intent, for you to spend 3 to 6 months on the combine process. Hopefully you are at least a scratch trader that can qualify for a rollover. There is absolutely no excuse for you to hit your drawdown limits. Why? Because YOU control that variable.

 

[austinp]

There is absolutely no excuse for you to hit your drawdown limits. Why? Because YOU control that variable.

Sure there is... a damn good reason. It's day eight, nine or ten and you are behind the mandated profit minimum. Fail to reach that and you lose. So what's the harm if you gun it and try to play catch-up? A time-limited profit mandate ENCOURAGES gambling behavior when deadlines arrive.

Now how about this as a solution: same exact combine parameters across the board, one lone change. Instead of needing to meet a minimum profit goal in ten or twenty sessions, make it a whatever profit goal without limit.

For example, a $50K combine must make it to $5k profits eventually without violating any other current stipulations. Or $10k profits, or $25k profits. If a deadline is needed, make it three months or six months with no session count.

Last week the ES traded INSIDE of 10 points total range each day, Mon thru Thu and again on Friday until 11am. But Friday ended up nearly a 40-point session range. At the start of each day, they all looked identical. You had no way to tell which if any would be dead or normal or expansive. But the moment you took that first combine trade, you were committed to making that day count.

The clock had started. Eliminate that clock => encourage more disciplined behavior.

 

[Maverick74]

Sure there is... a damn good reason. It's day eight, nine or ten and you are behind the mandated profit minimum. Fail to reach that and you lose. So what's the harm if you gun it and try to play catch-up? A time-limited profit mandate ENCOURAGES gambling behavior when deadlines arrive.

Now how about this as a solution: same exact combine parameters across the board, one lone change. Instead of needing to meet a minimum profit goal in ten or twenty sessions, make it a whatever profit goal without limit.

For example, a $50K combine must make it to $5k profits eventually without violating any other current stipulations. Or $10k profits, or $25k profits. If a deadline is needed, make it three months or six months with no session count.

Last week the ES traded INSIDE of 10 points total range each day, Mon thru Thu and again on Friday until 11am. But Friday ended up nearly a 40-point session range. At the start of each day, they all looked identical. You had no way to tell which if any would be dead or normal or expansive. But the moment you took that first combine trade, you were committed to making that day count.

The clock had started. Eliminate that clock => encourage more disciplined behavior.

I've said before that I agree with you that the time variable should be taken out. But let me be clear about something. There is no excuse for you to behave that way. The goal is not to WIN that damn combine. The goal is to become a profitable trader. If that takes you 100 combines then so be it. YOU HAVE to have emotional maturity to understand that. Simply gunning the last few days simply to "win" something demonstrates the same emotional weakness that guys at my firm had when their trading accounts starting getting low. They did the exact same thing only there was no combine or rules. They simply got desperate and start taking huge risks. This behavior HAS to be AVOIDED at all costs. I cannot stress this enough. This is a weakness Austin. It is. You have to overcome this. You will NOT survive in this business without emotional maturity.

When you have some time, I want you to go google the "marshmellow experiment". It was a famous experiment done in the 1960's that has been repeated for the last 50 years and its astounding what it reveals. But you are a perfect example of the children who failed that experiment. Read up about it. It's very important.

I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying, I get that's what people do, but the point is you need to overcome that urge. And that urge does not simply exist at TST in a combine, it exists with all traders who are watching their trade equity drop every day. For some it could be the pressure of having a wife or family. For others it could be mounting debts. It's all the same. You must overcome that.

 

[helmholtz]

For accuracy, it's not my setup. I, like many others, discovered it's a positive expectancy setup.

I call it BOPB.

Cornix trades it; he calls it BSOT.

DB trades it; I don't know what he calls it because I haven't studied his PDF yet, but I think the term "RET" is involved.

We either discovered for ourselves through study of price action that it's a positive expectancy setup or we heard about it from someone else and saw that it produced profitable outcomes with relatively small risk more often than not.

I got introduced to the idea long ago from Cornix when we traded together in a Skype group. He never told me what it was at that time, but I observed his trades on the 5- and

You can continue to make fun of me and "my" Bigfoot unicorn fairy tail setup. Those who exercise contempt prior to investigation may feel smug and get a little ego boost each time they do so, but those who investigate and see the bunnies in the clouds might just enjoy a boost to their trading account.

I'm not making fun of you because I believe you sincerely believe what you are saying--- and may be misled, living a deliberate fantasy, or potentially even hoodwinked by JH or DB Cooper.

The problem is what you are saying simply does not work. It can't work, there is no secret pattern that can be discovered by folks toiling away on the laptop at the kitchen table and manually back testing on spreadsheets. The market is simply not designed in the way that would allow consistent long term profits from your stated method. It's pure fantasy hence warning noobs is in order.

Remember noobs--- market satans appear as angels of light and education --- yet produce no evidence. Proceed with caution. Good luck!

 

[austinp]

I've said before that I agree with you that the time variable should be taken out. But let me be clear about something. There is no excuse for you to behave that way. The goal is not to WIN that damn combine. The goal is to become a profitable trader. If that takes you 100 combines then so be it.

That'd be swell if the combines were free. Do you want to pay for 100 combines while trying to be profitable enough?

Now remember, I was net profitable and if there was no time limit on profit goals I'd be net profitable every time. Every time... but most times would be a lot longer than ten sessions for minimum-$$ or twenty sessions for 2x minimum-$$

When you paid $350 or $400 for a try, it's day nine and you are in compliance with all parameters except way behind profit mandate, you are going to gun the finish every single time. No question about it.

Curiously enough, if you pass a combine and reach a trial phase, guess what? The limited sessions performance pressure is eliminated. Why is that? Why not leave the same parameters for combine to funded trial phase? Why then and only then is the fixed session profit goal no longer important?

 

[Maverick74]

That'd be swell if the combines were free. Do you want to pay for 100 combines while trying to be profitable enough?

Now remember, I was net profitable and if there was no time limit on profit goals I'd be net profitable every time. Every time... but most times would be a lot longer than ten sessions for minimum-$$ or twenty sessions for 2x minimum-$$

When you paid $350 or $400 for a try, it's day nine and you are in compliance with all parameters except way behind profit mandate, you are going to gun the finish every single time. No question about it.

Curiously enough, if you pass a combine and reach a trial phase, guess what? The limited sessions performance pressure is eliminated. Why is that? Why not leave the same parameters for combine to funded trial phase? Why then and only then is the fixed session profit goal no longer important?

No Austin, you don't have to pay $400 over and over again. In the example you gave you WERE profitable which means you would have qualified for a FREE rollover. But no, you wanted to WIN and because of that, you all in and violated the limits. There is NO excuse for that. A decent trader should NEVER EVER have to pay for more then a couple of combines over a 6 month period. If you can't even qualify for a rollover via a scratch then it's time for you re-examine what you think your edge is. And also you should not be paying for a $400 combine if you can't pass a smaller one. I mean come on. Don't sign up for a Calculus 3 course if you can't pass basic math.

 

[austinp]

No Austin, you don't have to pay $400 over and over again. In the example you gave you WERE profitable which means you would have qualified for a FREE rollover. But no, you wanted to WIN

So if a trader meets all parameters but only makes $1 profit in the combine, they get rolled over? I don't think I knew that at the time, and I didn't know that now.

Which leads me to reiterate this: if you are still in contention for a funded status without making the minimum profit once or twice or one hundred times... if you keep getting unlimited chances to breach that hurdle... why not simply eliminate that artificial hurdle completely?

After all, it serves no role in the funded trader status. So what is the point to begin with? Nobody has ever once justified that.

 

[Maverick74]

So if a trader meets all parameters but only makes $1 profit in the combine, they get rolled over? I don't think I knew that at the time, and I didn't know that now.

Which leads me to reiterate this: if you are still in contention for a funded status without making the minimum profit once or twice or one hundred times... if you keep getting unlimited chances to breach that hurdle... why not simply eliminate that artificial hurdle completely?

After all, it serves no role in the funded trader status. So what is the point to begin with? Nobody has ever once justified that.

That's correct, you just need a single dollar in profit for each contract you trade. So if you only trade oil, you need to have one dollar profit and NOT violate the drawdown limits.

 

[Tonkadad]

I'm not making fun of you because I believe you sincerely believe what you are saying--- and may be misled, living a deliberate fantasy, or potentially even hoodwinked by JH or DB Cooper.

Lets get real here, you are not making fun of her, you are calling her a liar!

You believe, she sincerely believe's what she is saying? She is either making money or she isn't. She says she is. No confusion, no believing, no fantasy.

When you say the markets aren't designed to work that way, I see patterns all of the time, are they real? Just because I didn't trade them does that change the fact that they are there?

If someone said they made money on a chart that had minimal movement, then I agree, I would find that hard to believe. (I am talking chart pattern trading.)


I don't find it hard to believe that someone who is disciplined, has a plan and can follow it, has learned to keep their EGO in the backseat and can be in the moment without fear or greed can make consistent money.

I am not currently doing that but that doesn't mean its impossible?