Quote from marketsurfer:
IF you keep an open mind, you will discover the random nature of what happens after each entry----- regardless of what your mentor tells you----- there is no edge in TA-- but manage each entry correctly, and you may win this thing! surf
His mentor would be the first to tell him that what happens after each entry is indeed random. You got that right, Brother Surf
I disagree that there is no edge in TA. I just had a chance to review FCX's trades today and the losses were not the result of TA failure. Out of his trades, two were proper technical price action setups and two were trades with no signal at all (revenge trades).
Of the two that were proper technical setups, he entered the first one a bit late and then placed his stop loss inside the resistance ceiling to avoid a loss larger than .10. The trade had a MFE of .23 even from his late entry level without ever hitting what should've been a .16 stop, and so his loss was the result of improper trade management, not failure of the TA signaling the trade.
The second proper technical setup was as good as it gets, but the volatile nature of this instrument took him out for b/e before he could place his take profit sell order.
I warned FCX that Monday and Tuesday were walks in the park compared with the usual volatility of CL. The key is to be very focused and prepared in advance for entry and trade management.
He's young, and his ability to recover today from order entry errors while under stress was impressive.
What I found most impressive was that he stopped when close to his max loss limit. Anyone who's struggled with the early years of trading knows how difficult it is to do this.