Tomorrow Wednesday 09/09/2009: Beginning of Bear Leg

gkishot · Sep 10, 2009

Quote from S2007S:

How anyone thinks you can price in a movement in the markets 20%, 30% 40% or even 50% higher from here is crazy, the economy was running on all cylinders back just 2-3 years ago when corporate earnings were at the peak of their time, unemployment was under 5%, GDP 3%+.....

We are no where close to that time and everyone believes the economy is becoming what it once was again, the biggest credit crisis done with in a year.

The US market is pulled higher by the markets overseas. Maybe they are doing just fine now even though US might be in much worse shape than in 2007. Maybe US market is just following recovery in Europe and Asia.

gottatrade · Sep 10, 2009

gkishot, maybe you are right. The Chinese have some money last I heard and might be investing here. I am not sure if they know what they're doing. The vice pres of Bank of China says there are bubbles everywhere.

We used to be the leader in bubble blowing, but maybe that has changed like everything else lol.

FB123 · Sep 10, 2009

Quote from jalee25:

saying this could dissapoint some bulls on et... but many think the markets are overbought now. regardless, bulls could still be right and the markets can keep going up despite any bad data that keeps arising. :eek:

You do understand that when many think the markets are overbought, that this is a bullish sign, right? Whenever "many" people think something, the chances of it happening are low. If everyone thought that it was going to go up, I'd be more worried. Either way, just trade the price action and be prepared for either scenario.

canuckrookie · Sep 10, 2009

Im glad everyone expects the worst.
S&P 1100

jalee25 · Sep 10, 2009

Quote from FB123:

You do understand that when many think the markets are overbought, that this is a bullish sign, right? Whenever "many" people think something, the chances of it happening are low. If everyone thought that it was going to go up, I'd be more worried. Either way, just trade the price action and be prepared for either scenario.

Pardon my verbiage... 'many' people probably think the markets will keep going up as well. That is the reason we've been moving up through many bad news... rising unemployment... etc. I thought overbought was more bearish... as long there isn't major momentum pushing up. Either direction... I'll take it.

As I'm typing this... the S&P is approaching 1045... It will be interesting if bulls can keep push past that.

S2007S · Sep 10, 2009

more air being inflated into the market.

Clubber Lang · Sep 10, 2009

Quote from riskfreetrading:

My models said that the bear leg is about to begin,

Readers of my blog know the details as per today's post. 40.66 to 40.76 was the level we thought the Qs should be shorted during the afternoon session of today September 08, 2009.

QQQQ 41.48 now.

2% move against you in less than two days.

Time to run away for another month and come back with another top call then.

Eventually you will get one right.

lexcorp · Sep 10, 2009

Quote from Clubber Lang:

QQQQ 41.48 now.

2% move against you in less than two days.

Time to run away for another month and come back with another top call then.

Eventually you will get one right.

why pick tops in a one-way market?!!
why aren't people starting threads sayin "get ready for the next leg up"?.
Much much less chance of looking like a fool like this guy has, lol

S2007S · Sep 10, 2009

The bulls on here remind me of the same bulls from late 2007....

Everyone should know markets dont go in one direction and of course its after they have dropped 20% do they realize this, remember markets take the stairs higher and the elevator down. Weeks of gains can be lost in hours. It will come with a little patience to the perma bears, it always does.

Xspurt · Sep 10, 2009

Quote from riskfreetrading:

The move down is already underway in Qs before noon, and in SPY a little after 1PM today.

If it continues, the top is then on Wednesday September 09, 2009!

As per the comments on this thread, the majority on ET is bullish! That is another positive sign for a move down.

It ain't that simple. You were a bear steak in the Fx when you called a bear leg that resulted in a 1200 pip upthrust.

Now you are on the BBQ again. You have some good ideas but you are repeating the same mistakes. Use those good TA ideas to discover how to correct this error.

This was an amateur mistake technically but look at the fundamentals. Who is buying?