Tomorrow Wednesday 09/09/2009: Beginning of Bear Leg

R

riskfreetrading

I have not been at this forum for months now. I hope all are doing well. Also Hello to my friends here! I have not read my PMs yet, so sorry to those who sent me messages for not getting back to you as I have not check this board for a long time.

I just thought to start this thread about the bear leg. My models said that the bear leg is about to begin, and that the market is at a possible turning point. The path of least resistance appears to be down, particularly if market opens with a gap down.

Readers of my blog know the details as per today's post. 40.66 to 40.76 was the level we thought the Qs should be shorted during the afternoon session of today September 08, 2009.

Pplan is to short a gap up at the right price and right time, or in case of a gap down (very possible) to short rallies.

We will see what bulls have in store!

What do U think?
 
Every Tom, Dick and Jack can see the top here so I say...

Bear puts leg into BEAR TRAP

There is fantastic strength climbing walls of justifiable worry - what more could you wish for? I expect whips to suck the bears in, but it will take a lot to break down into a bear leg.
 
I think the bear leg started on August 28th. The pattern on the SPX chart is that of a misaligned head and shoulders. The left shoulder took about 10 days to form while the head seemed shorter in duration. I would suspect the right shoulder will be about 3-5 more days of sideways action before a decisive direction.

The $VIX, viewed with weekly candles, looks like its been basing the last 8 weeks and slowly turning upward. If it were a stock, then I would definately buy it.

I think we are at a turning point, but also believe there will be some whipsaw action to come in the next week or so that might convince some otherwise.

Some other sectors will stay strong for a while longer like the XLE. As I type this, the ES futures are down and Europe decidely trading in the red, but oil is up a little and hanging in there. The $XOI index seems to be at a key point sitting right under a trend line. A bust above that could move the XLE much higher...actually the entire oil complex looks like its been basing since October of last year.
 
I think we could get a dangerous panic rally at some point really soon....what do you guys think of this possibility...market running up to the old highs thus creating an even WORSE eventual next crash.
 
Calling market tops is a losing proposition. This has been written a million times before but some people never learn. A broken clock is wrong twice a day. There are easier ways to make money in the markets than fighting the tape.
 
Wait till the S&P hits 1032, then we'll have a double top. At that point, I'll start liquidating my long positions. I just noticed the date 9/9/9. Maybe that has significance to 666 on the S&P ...
 
Quote from DrEvil:

Calling market tops is a losing proposition. This has been written a million times before but some people never learn. A broken clock is wrong twice a day. There are easier ways to make money in the markets than fighting the tape.
More...

Do you have a special clock? :confused:
 
Quote from riskfreetrading:

What do U think?
More...

I think you're trying to short a market that is manipulated by the government to go UP. You are playing poker against the biggest player in the world, with the world's largest chip stack. I see nothing at the moment that tells me that the government won't turn on the spigots again and blast this thing higher again like they did in July. Will that happen? Who knows. But I want to see more evidence that they are running out of steam, and that the other participants in the market are starting to overwhelm them before I start going short for more than the very short term.

Reading this market based on pure technicals is a very stupid thing to do right now, considering that technicals are irrelevant when you have one player that can goose the market whenever it feels like it. What better time to royally screw the shorts again than letting it seem like a decline is in order right around the traditional time that markets go down (Sept/Oct), letting them get short, and then killing them again like in July? Not saying it will happen, but it's something you need to be aware of.

This rally is like a vampire... you're going to need to drive a stake through its heart to kill it, and I haven't seen that stake... YET. Some more sustained selling on high volume would make me feel better about the short side.
 
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