Toll CEO says speculators walking away from contracts

I don't fault OP for putting this up, it was a release. I agree this is only the tip of the iceberg to hit this particular industry and housing in general. When these guys are bailing out on land deals, you know it's BAD!

The fact that it was occurring last year is also true, but, when has a CEO every come out at the time a pullback in sales was occurring and said we suck... none that I know of, until, they've dumped their stock.

Agree, the short was last year, not now.
 
Lets look at the chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TOL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p46036307072

The price is right at the 200 week moving average. A quick look at the financials shows the P/E suprisingly low.

I do believe that housing will go much lower. In fact, I was on the phone with a friend who just bought a house who said that he saw a bottom in the housing market. Little does he know about charting. Imagine a stock that keeps drifting downward. It falls some, then rallies a little bit then drops some more until its a lot lower. Thats how housing is right now. It falls, then rises a little bit and then falls some more.

However, you have to trust the chart and not what you believe will happen to housing. The time to have shorted Tol was in October of 2005 or even the earlier part of 2006. Now its been heavily sold off. I can tell you that any positive news on housing will send it much higher.

Yes, Tol was a good short, but now that opportunity has gone. Your too late. It will probably go much lower in time, but looking at the risk-reward of the trade its too risky.

This is a common mistake of most people. They see a stock hit a new low and think its time to short. Similiarly, they see a stock hitting a new high and think its time to jump on board. However, the party is just about over and people are starting to leave. The bottomline is that if you want in on the party, come early, otherwise just stay home.
 
yeah, should make an attempt or two at the 50ema and then fall back to take out the lows...dailies are more bullish....weekly [long term] are definetly bearish. quick long may work.
Quote from eagle488:

Lets look at the chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TOL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p46036307072

The price is right at the 200 week moving average. A quick look at the financials shows the P/E suprisingly low.

I do believe that housing will go much lower. In fact, I was on the phone with a friend who just bought a house who said that he saw a bottom in the housing market. Little does he know about charting. Imagine a stock that keeps drifting downward. It falls some, then rallies a little bit then drops some more until its a lot lower. Thats how housing is right now. It falls, then rises a little bit and then falls some more.

However, you have to trust the chart and not what you believe will happen to housing. The time to have shorted Tol was in October of 2005 or even the earlier part of 2006. Now its been heavily sold off. I can tell you that any positive news on housing will send it much higher.

Yes, Tol was a good short, but now that opportunity has gone. Your too late. It will probably go much lower in time, but looking at the risk-reward of the trade its too risky.

This is a common mistake of most people. They see a stock hit a new low and think its time to short. Similiarly, they see a stock hitting a new high and think its time to jump on board. However, the party is just about over and people are starting to leave. The bottomline is that if you want in on the party, come early, otherwise just stay home.
More...
 
November 10, 2005 10:30 AM ET
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/commentary/gkitermi/11102005-47093.cfm

"The CEO of TOLL BROTHERS is the gentleman who went on bubblevision saying he was going to bury the shorts...just a few weeks before he sold millions of shares of stock. Love this business."

This is from last November. Now the same moron Toll goes on a conference and says the turn around in housing will come with a vengeance? You gotta be kidding me.

I think Toll will not be here anymore when the turn around comes.
 
Quote from ratboy88:

i remember "oldtrader" arguing with me about this appx 1 1/2 yrs ago telling me i was an idiot. i said give it a couple years and he laughed and reminded me he had been in the biz for years.... what i have noticed about real estate people, many are fools that rode a rising tide.
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LOL! What did I call you an "idiot" for, Ratboy? You need to put the context out there, 'cause I don't call someone an "idiot" very often.

Speaking of that "rising tide", I just sold a property for $83,500 that I bought about 15 months ago for $31,000. This during the period where houses were coming down in my area. In fact, at the time, I thought I could resell the property for $90K-$100K, which turned out not to be the case. I did have to put about $20K in fix-up money into the property.

At this point there are MANY opportunities out there if you know what to look for, and what to do when you find it.

OldTrader
 
LOL, everyone who thinks the homebuilders have bottomed needs to look at a "max" chart of TOL on Yahoo finance. The last time housing really took a hit, the early 90's, TOL and KBH were 2 dollar stocks. Robert Toll is going to keep calling a bottom because he and his brother(?) Bruce Toll are still unloading shares as we speak. Someone has to buy it from them. :eek:
 
does anyone has TOL short interest chart for last two years ? It would be interesting to look at it ( with lead/lag functionality vs stock's price)
 
i normally don't hold anything longer than a few days but see these a prime short (i'm currently short RYL)

10 yr chart on RYL

<img src="http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/6474/picture7pd1.jpg">
 
Quote from OldTrader:

LOL! What did I call you an "idiot" for, Ratboy? You need to put the context out there, 'cause I don't call someone an "idiot" very often.

Speaking of that "rising tide", I just sold a property for $83,500 that I bought about 15 months ago for $31,000. This during the period where houses were coming down in my area. In fact, at the time, I thought I could resell the property for $90K-$100K, which turned out not to be the case. I did have to put about $20K in fix-up money into the property.

At this point there are MANY opportunities out there if you know what to look for, and what to do when you find it.

OldTrader
More...

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...24&perpage=6&highlight=oldtimer&pagenumber=30

ratboy88


Registered: Dec 2003
Posts: 2507


01-15-05 04:01 PM



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Quote from OldTrader:

..........But to directly answer your question: I'm not calling this a "bubble"....you are. I'm not predicting a 20-30% decline....you are.

But here's the thing....I also believe that IF there is a drop, that 20% might be a "reasonable" sort of decline. I could see it....I'm just not predicting it...............

Look forward to you answer.

OldTrader
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you didn't directly answer the question. you say there is no bubble so what is your definition...what are the parameters?

as far as time frame goes i was wrong for almost two years regarding the nasdaq and smart asses kept running their mouths....so i guess we can start the clock ticking right now...i just made my prediction so give me up to jan 2007 give or take a few months.
 
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