Toll CEO says speculators walking away from contracts

[OldTrader]

Quote from ElCubano:

i dont think home prices are 60% higher this year than last ( and they are taking alot longer to sell, not a good sign for the seller of course ), i may be wrong ....and tol has done nothing but go down from its high in 7/05..with the exception of a bounce here and there...i dont know what ratgirl predicted or when...but i believe its not over yet either

Just to clarify, this particular prediction by ratgirl was January 2005. The stocks went up about 70% between January of 2005 and July 2005. Between July 2005 and January 2006, they dipped slightly, came back, but in essence were still 60% higher than January 2005. At this time the stocks are about where they started in January 2005.

Now, home prices as you know would have depended on where you were in the country. California for instance I think you did pretty well in 2005. I assume you're giving it back this year.

In my area of the Midwest houses actually peaked a couple of years ago. So they were flat in 2005, I'd say they are down marginally in 2006.

Houses are taking longer to sell where I am...although I just sold a house that I spoke about earlier in this thread in 2 weeks. I had the house priced low though which attracted a "bargain hunter".

I'm not going to go back into Ratgirls' prediction. I would say that in my area that the market has some work to do, probably lower prices ahead. And from what I read that is probably true other places as well.

OldTrader

 

[ratboy88]

Quote from OldTrader:

Yah, you were right dumbass.LOL!LOL!LOL!

Let's summarize your accomplishments here: you tell us that "sometime in the 2 years" the bubble will pop.

Next, we rally 70% in the stocks. A year later we're still 60% higher. Finally, we drop back to the area we started from.

You don't short it because you don't "trust" the specialists! LOL!LOL! LOL! So essentially this was all a giant papertrade!LOL!LOL!

You gotta love that papertrading eh Ratsass? No problem at all when they rally em 70%. And what's especially funny is I bet we can go back prior to January 2005 and find even more of your "predictions"/ "papertrades", or whatever they were.

Only on ET! LOL!LOL!LOL!

OldTrader

all i did was make an accurate predicition on the housing market and oldtimer has me day trading the builders. LOL LOL LOL got logic?

i would love to have sat by you during the tech bubble when i was day trading a $200 plus tech stock that had a $1 spread at times. i cared not which direction the stock moved.. i played both sides with a bias to the downside given the speed in which it accelerated. i have met few in the business that were able to "scalp" in this manner and i truly believe it is one of the most taxing styles of trading in existence. trust me when i say you would have soiled your "depends" old man if you had attempted it.

 

[Mvic]

class index on ET hitting new low

 

[ratboy88]

oh get over it.

 

[Cutten]

Quote from OldTrader:

Cutten:

You can't be "100% right" about a prediction when it rallies 70% first over the next 7 months, and is still 60% higher a year later. In fact, looking at KBH for example, it's basically a wash from January 2005. Anyone that made that prediction was wrong.

Now, if you're telling us that you "traded" this somehow, more power to you. I'll believe your statements, or some evidence of real time trades. Otherwise, this is little more than talk my friend.

OldTrader

Let's say someone made a prediction in 1999 that the nasdaq was in a bubble and would collapse some time in the next few years. The nasdaq subsequently doubled in price. But did the prediction come true or not?

 

[ratboy88]

Quote from OldTrader:

Just to clarify, this particular prediction by ratgirl was January 2005. The stocks went up about 70% between January of 2005 and July 2005. Between July 2005 and January 2006, they dipped slightly, came back, but in essence were still 60% higher than January 2005. At this time the stocks are about where they started in January 2005.

Now, home prices as you know would have depended on where you were in the country. California for instance I think you did pretty well in 2005. I assume you're giving it back this year.

In my area of the Midwest houses actually peaked a couple of years ago. So they were flat in 2005, I'd say they are down marginally in 2006.

Houses are taking longer to sell where I am...although I just sold a house that I spoke about earlier in this thread in 2 weeks. I had the house priced low though which attracted a "bargain hunter".

I'm not going to go back into Ratgirls' prediction. I would say that in my area that the market has some work to do, probably lower prices ahead. And from what I read that is probably true other places as well.

OldTrader

POP GOES THE WEASLE !!!


http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070313/late_mortgages.html?.v=11

 

[S2007S]

Quote from S2007S:


11-12-06 04:51 PM


exactly, I think im being to nice when I predict another 25% drop in the homebuilding stocks.


The homebuilders have not bottomed. Dont believe what Greenspan is saying or the others hyping up the real estate markets like they have already bottomed. THEY HAVENT.

haha, and they still havent found a bottom yet!!!!!!!


Watch XHB, possible 52 week low in the making come next 1-2 months.