Today a Line in the Sand for Markets?

I see two possibilities, and as yet it's not clear which is correct. The first is that we're headed lower, on longer term charts Monday looks like the kind of sharp blast of buying that you usually see after such a massive down move, followed by a resumption of the downtrend.

The second is that the market will make a double bottom and we'll finally see the kind of drift-upward-consolidation that imo we're due for... at least for a couple of months.
 
Quote from gnome:

How about this...

SP earnings have come down from about $94 to about $56.

What if earnings drop to $30 in a recession... and the recession is long and dragged out...

P/E multiples drop to maybe 10x (were 7-8x in 82)

$30 earnings, 10x P/E = 300.

And that's about Dow 2700...

Seems not out of reach...
More...


Nutz.

The enormous growth we've seen in markets and earnings suggests that its mostly paper, or asset inflation. And people have their entire savings invested in this beast thats largely a conjuring of loose credit...

what happens when the DOW goes to 4K, or 3K??

20 years of market gains erased?? Tons more newcomers propped the system to its highs only to see 10-15 years of investment go up in smoke?
 
Well, today (Thursday) was surprisingly bullish.

Down huge than rallied strong into close.

A welcome reprieve before we take the next leg down..
 
Quote from gkishot:

Market is in a consolidation phase to take off higher by the year end.
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Hope in one hand...
Shit in the other...

See which fills up first.
 
Quote from achilles28:

Nutz.

The enormous growth we've seen in markets and earnings suggests that its mostly paper, or asset inflation. And people have their entire savings invested in this beast thats largely a conjuring of loose credit...

what happens when the DOW goes to 4K, or 3K??

20 years of market gains erased?? Tons more newcomers propped the system to its highs only to see 10-15 years of investment go up in smoke?
More...

Wouldn't happen if it could be prevented... I'm considering how perhaps it can't.
 
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