Today a Line in the Sand for Markets?

[murray t turtle]

Quote from achilles28:

After todays 7.5% beat down, I think investors took a huge Psychological Hit.

The Global bailout plan announced over the weekend - equivalent to 4 Trillion dollars - was probably the best chance to revive world markets.

After a euphoric 10% drive and talks of a new Bull, most of those gains were erased in a single day. With strong selling into the close.

IOW, Doubling a Nations debt in one Quarter punishes future growth via debasement or tax. The Markets know this and will price it, accordingly.


With each successive bleed, markets will force investors to confront what they don't want to accept - the Bear isn't going away.

DOW 7000........

DOW 5000 .......

=================
Agree with a lot of that,A28;
but didnt hear any ''talks of a new bull'', in stock market anyway.

Long term investors like mr Buffet[buying some GS] does not seem to mind all the lows,lower lows, lower closes.

Most of the media as Dave Ramsey points out, has been wrong on the ''recession'', but he does like selling in tough times.

 

[iceman1]

Quote from achilles28:

After todays 7.5% beat down, I think investors took a huge Psychological Hit.

The Global bailout plan announced over the weekend - equivalent to 4 Trillion dollars - was probably the best chance to revive world markets.

After a euphoric 10% drive and talks of a new Bull, most of those gains were erased in a single day. With strong selling into the close.

From here on out, it becomes very difficult for World Leaders to juice their economies without pronounced downside risk to future debt levels or inflation.

IOW, Doubling a Nations debt in one Quarter punishes future growth via debasement or tax. The Markets know this and will price it, accordingly.

With hamstrung consumption committed to Bubble Debt taken on during the Peak, US Economic Fundamentals have been flushed a long time ago.

The recurrent bailouts and propping are revealing themselves for what they are - a toxic stop-gap measure, that will not hold....

With each successive bleed, markets will force investors to confront what they don't want to accept - the Bear isn't going away.

DOW 7000 a definite.

DOW 5000 still in the cards.

well

I don't know for sure if we are going much lower... although it seems reasonable that we go lower. Either way I don't see us -breaking- the recent lows although we might re-test!

 

[gnome]

Quote from achilles28:

Hey, just because you watch the Crying Game in ur wife's heels and panty hose, doesn't mean the rest of us dig it.

And if Kudlows calling for DOW 5000, its probably his best call yet.

Are you a Bull now??

LOL... How'd you know The Crying Game is one of my favs?

Kudlow said 5000? Dang, what got into him?

I think we'll be fortunate to ultimately hold 5000..

 

[Ivanovich]

CNBC has a clock running down towards 7PM with "Paulson Live" under it. Is the hobo going to speak again?

 

[jficquette]

Quote from achilles28:

Hey, just because you watch the Crying Game in ur wife's heels and panty hose, doesn't mean the rest of us dig it.

And if Kudlows calling for DOW 5000, its probably his best call yet.

Are you a Bull now??

lol

 

[achilles28]

Quote from Fractals 'R Us:

If the governments answer is to throw money at the problem and it's not working, likely they will throw more money. The contracting economies will cause reductions in tax revenues so there will have to be inflation, personally I don't think it's going to be mild either.

Agree 100%.

How can the Worlds biggest economies print 10, 20, 30% of their GDP, inject it straight into the economy without blowback inflation eventually wreaking havoc?

Japan did it - 0% rates AND deflation. My best guess - Japanese consumers and business locked-in Real Estate Debt (home loans, or home equity) at bubble top, then market crashed and inflated debt had to get paid back with pre-Bubble Wages.

This meant everyone cut back, saved more, spent far less = drop in GDP and deflation. Even at 0%. Because all their debt was incurred at or around 0%, further reductions in interest did little or nothing to offset that massive debt load.

As they say, history repeats, but never exactly.

What will the fallout be on the Global Economy economy if everyone inflates and cuts back at the same time?

Eventually, all that cash will find another nascent bubble once the consumer recoups their wallet.

 

[achilles28]

Quote from ElCubano:

i am taking a shit....

Where are u long from?

 

[new$]

Hey, I got an idea- why don't we kick in another 4 TRIL ??

 

[achilles28]

Quote from murray t turtle:

=================
Agree with a lot of that,A28;
but didnt hear any ''talks of a new bull'', in stock market anyway.

Long term investors like mr Buffet[buying some GS] does not seem to mind all the lows,lower lows, lower closes.

Most of the media as Dave Ramsey points out, has been wrong on the ''recession'', but he does like selling in tough times.

I probably spend too much time here. ET's permabulls beat their chest after mondays close....

Warrens bottom fishing definitely holds weight. But is Goldman stock indicative of the overall market or an investment "blue chip" that can better weather the ups and downs?

Take the Nikkei for example. Down 75% since 1990.

Asset over-valuation has been priced in for the last 17 years. I can't help to think we hit 1995 levels if this thing goes parabolic.

 

[achilles28]

Quote from new$:

Hey, I got an idea- why don't we kick in another 4 TRIL ??

Marc Faber says US bailout could end up as high as 5 Trillion, alone.