To all thee would-be traders out there....

IF you think you are gonna make a million dollars during your first 1 years trading, then quit while you're ahead.
IF you think you think all those "gurus" lifestyles are from trading alone, then quit while you're ahead.
IF you think this is easy skill to learn, then quit while you're ahead.
IF you don't have the time to dedicate, and i mean really dedicate,then quit while you're ahead.
IF you have any financial responsibility during the first couple years of the start of trading.
IF you don't like staring at charts for 4-8 hrs a day, then quit while you're ahead.
IF you think you can predict the news, then quit while you're ahead.
IF you can't handle loosing , then quit while you're ahead.
IF you think there is a "holy grail strategy", then quit while you're ahead.
IF you can't make money in SIM what makes you think you will make money live?

-mainly talking about es s&p 500 - but can be related to any market

The majority of people will lose money within in their first year, this goes for swing and day traders. For the few that keep going, that first year will be their "eye-opener" about markets. This goes for stock and futures. They will start to learn that it is not as easy as the "gurus" make it look.

Now, about these "gurus" they may be able to make money with their systems. But what you don't understand is that for most of them trading is supplementary income. They make most of their money from there subscribers. Most of these guys will show you complex strategies that might take you a while to learn, which keeps you subscribing, and after you learn it you might realize that its not the best strategy. Most of these guys on you tube and twitter scalping for a few ticks or a few points, CHUMP CHANGE! You want to be able to take advantage of the big trend moves during the intraday time and go for 10+ or at least 5pts. Of course you can scalp along the way. Now, the market isn't gonna shell out 20 pt moves everyday, so be aware of that, but on those special days with strong momo - those days can make an entire month. Dedication is important if you miss a day it could bee that day that we move 20pts. As your chart reading skills improve you will be able to identify when days like that may be likely to happen. When you can read the chart and read it well, and understand what you're looking at you'll have made great leaps on your journey.

You'll have to dedicate much more time in the beginning and then as you improve you'll notice you don't need to really do much except manage trades. The whole process will become easier as you gain confidence. All the people that like to learn and teach themselves will excel the fastest. Don't bother with "gurus". All beginners should start with sim. I would have saved 5k if i started wit sim. Also, to people that say you need 50k to trade futures, you're all snakes! A amateur should never take 50k to trade with, NEVER. Beginners, if you really think you're good enough to skip sim, please don't take more than 5k to the markets. Here's the logic, and it's similar to sim logic, IF you cant make money with 2-5k you will lose all you 50k before you know it. And don't treat the sim like a joke... If you were a pilot would you treat flight simulation like a joke and start doing doughnuts in the air? set the sim to 5k and try to double or even triple it without loosing too much. Try to do it fast, but don't force trades where there are none. when you can double that account you may be ready to go live.

If you think TA doesn't work then leave my fucking thread now because you are an idiot. TA is the only way to trade, TA goes back to market inception. forget all you learned, clear all you indicators off your chart. Stare at naked chart for a few months and you'll start to see things differently.

Ill stop for now, if anyone finds this interesting ill continue next week.
Thank you truth101,

Very well written and simple understanding.

Everything you said is true. How I know its true? Cause I started with $5K cash in the market and said "forget sim, I have a college degree, this will be easy" and lost it all. lol, I been in sim every since.
 
I have been trading futures for 20 yrs. I have spent the last 8 years using Tradestation, having started with Supercharts. I have spent thousand of hours programming easy language studies and seeing how they perform. I'm finally at the point I can consistently pay back the money I have spent on my trading education. It has been a long and difficult road. But it is worth it. I now have a very simple robust methodology that I use that is the result of many years of tweaking. Once you are comfortable with your method then you have to pick your markets and be comfortable trading them. I have also found that the simpler the better. As far at TA goes, I found that its main benefit is to give you a framework to trade with in "the now". Not the future.
It gives you the information you need to make high probability trades in the present. Then all you have to do is manage the trade. The key really is a LOT of screen time and really thinking about what is going on in the market. It does get easier and easier the more you do it. It just takes a lot of time.
 
I have been trading futures for 20 yrs. I have spent the last 8 years using Tradestation, having started with Supercharts. I have spent thousand of hours programming easy language studies and seeing how they perform. I'm finally at the point I can consistently pay back the money I have spent on my trading education. It has been a long and difficult road. But it is worth it. I now have a very simple robust methodology that I use that is the result of many years of tweaking. Once you are comfortable with your method then you have to pick your markets and be comfortable trading them. I have also found that the simpler the better. As far at TA goes, I found that its main benefit is to give you a framework to trade with in "the now". Not the future.
It gives you the information you need to make high probability trades in the present. Then all you have to do is manage the trade. The key really is a LOT of screen time and really thinking about what is going on in the market. It does get easier and easier the more you do it. It just takes a lot of time.
Excellent post. Would you be willing to share your stats and what market you trade? Things like what your average win is vs. your average loss, and then your win rate. (ie. ES, stop is set to 2 points, average win is 3 points, 50% wins, that sort of thing).

Of course maybe you're more so swing trading and hence holding for bigger targets with perhaps a smaller win rate but much bigger payoff. I'm just looking to see how your stats play out. Thanks.
 
ET has a search, lot's a treasures buried.

The sequence of events occurs on all time-based charts provided there is sufficient liquidity per instrument. It's easier to see on some charts than others. The 5min is where I have my attention.

View attachment 174862
Thanks.

From your chart, how do I know beforehand in real time that a down trend will turn into an up trend?
 
At the moment my stats are nothing to write home about. However, I finally got my method down pat and working the way I wanted it to. For June Avg win-83, avg loss-109. Win rate-.76.
But I have come from a deficit of 1814 to a deficit of 660 today. Total trades 71.I only do day trades and I trade CL, GC, NQ, and YM
 
At the moment my stats are nothing to write home about. However, I finally got my method down pat and working the way I wanted it to. For June Avg win-83, avg loss-109. Win rate-.76.
But I have come from a deficit of 1814 to a deficit of 660 today. Total trades 71.I only do day trades and I trade CL, GC, NQ, and YM
Interesting, thanks. Having the average loss a bit bigger than the win is certainly not the best, but you're obviously still net positive with a high win rate. (and who can argue with a positive equity curve!)

How many trades are you taking per day? I assume these are trades that only last several minutes to perhaps an hour max? (assumed based on the average win and loss size being less than $100)
 
Thanks.

From your chart, how do I know beforehand in real time that a down trend will turn into an up trend?

Do you know how to draw tapes, traverses and channels? Would you post a chart of an instrument that you monitor?

I could speak to it but having a chart would ground the concepts to something that you have an active interest it.
 
Do you know how to draw tapes, traverses and channels? Would you post a chart of an instrument that you monitor?

I could speak to it but having a chart would ground the concepts to something that you have an active interest it.
Here is a stock I trade, DXCM, chart from Google Finance:

upload_2017-6-26_18-45-27.png
 
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