To all thee would-be traders out there....

[ironchef]

You would be looking at price action and volume.

Thanks. So, what should I look for in price and volume?

 

[ironchef]

There's really no shame in this either - it's no secret that there are about as many variations of TA as there are new traders entering the markets whom want to use TA. Not to mention the various permutations within the same 'area' of TA, also.

Appreciate your encouragements.

So to keep it simple, lets say I focus on price and volume. Any characteristics of price actions have predictive values?

I am actually encouraged by all the responses.

Regards,

 

[ironchef]

Thank you for your question.

The hidden data is the spectrum of differentiation one has/is creating in their own mind by their own work.

The more words we can use to describe a thing, the more it's characteristics are known. Concepts are definable and powerful. Concepts can be proven by math. The math of the markets that create clarity is boolean algebra. True or False.

With price there are two cases out of ten that directly translate to making money. Of all the movements of price, it distills to ten unique cases. With Volume there are 11 essential elements that comprise the development of a trend.

All liquid markets are symmetrical. All concepts apply to long or short.

A trend is defined by three moves. A dominant move, a non-dominant move and a return to dominance. Trends interlock. Longs rollover into shorts, shorts consolidate into longs. We can see that with price pretty easy with a nesting of fractal containers.

What drives price to higher and higher levels is the volume of participants that see value. At a point the volume diminishes (Pt2) and a smaller non-dominant move takes place. From here if the trend continues in the initial direction then a (Pt3) has occurred.

From here volume will either increase to create a VE in the trend or it will post a FTT. A volatility expansion comes from a new surge of participants that see value. A Failure to traverse comes from fewer and fewer participants agreeing to do business at these price levels.

The market is constantly looking for new business. If price will go no further in one direction, then it will migrate in the opposite direction until it the same sequence of events takes place.

This scenario can be witness on all time-scales. Each time scale has at the minimum of three fractal containers that can be annotated by a differentiated mind - tapes, traverses and channels.

When one shifts from a time-based orientation of markets to an event-based one, everything becomes clearer, easier and supports better feeling emotions. Unfortunately it's not easy. The shift requires a re-assessment of pretty much everything one has been taught about how markets work. It requires drills to form new neural connections so that one might begin to perceive what has been there all along.

A trader making bank and another losing bank are both looking at the same data. How they each interpret that data makes all the difference.

The above concepts are not really part of Conventional Wisdom nor are they popular nor ever will be.


To understand volume first we have to clarify - What are the ten cases of price?

Appreciate your posts though I don't understand most of what you wrote.

Same question for you. Let's keep it simple and just look at the price chart. What are some price patterns that have predictive values that a trader can use to trade?

And you said time-based and event-based, what time frame is your time-based and again what time frame is your event-based charts?

Regards,

 

[Sprout]

Thx. Can you please illustrate with a diagram or a chart for the sake of clarity?

I could but it would deprive you of an essential experience. If you're willing to attempt the simple effort of the post you are referencing then I would be more inclined to do work that is not my own.
In a couple of days, yes, after giving a chance to anyone who wants to take up the effort.
It's rare that I have time to post as much as I recently have.

@Sprout I think I understand and appreciate your philosophical approach , but the concept of volume must be defined to be compared in any scenario. Therefore, back to my previous, when you refer to volume bars how do you know that day 1 was missing off exchange volume and day 2 was not , etc.

Thank you for expressing your diligence. You are correct. One would zoom out in time scale to get a approximation as the smaller (faster) time scale progresses.

If monitoring the 5min chart, you don't really know if the day's volume will surpass the previous day's or not. The opening volume gives a comparison of the previous day's opening volume, that's about it. A large market participant/s can enter at any time and cause either the dominant direction to progress with a VE or by the sheer volume they are transacting cause a shift in sentiment and therefore change. Most of this time the shift in sentiment is below the radar of those who have not taken the effort to learn how to read the markets. By the time the sentiment shift is apparent, smart money has already positioned itself and are taking profits.

An exercise is putting up a daily, 30min and 5m in a tri-pane and watch the progress. At some point in the 5m, you will know if it can or cannot (at current pace) build a 30min bar comparable to the previous one. Just as watching the 30min progress, at some point you will know if it builds the daily bar comparable to the prior.

But this misses the point. Timescales are fractal but not all fractals are timescales. A change of trend can occur and does several times throughout the day. We can call these trend segments. A larger trend can span multiple timescales. A trend can also be intra-bar.

All of this is observable.

Sorry that you went to this much trouble. I wasn't looking to learn, I was simply asking about the kinds of results you get with your method. I learned a while back that any time someone can't share true results, there is little point in continuing to listen.

Let me give you a direct example. There are some traders who swear by using volume profile. Sure, it makes sense, look for trades at the price areas that had the most volume. But when you analyze the kinds of trades that set up, or the trades they take, you see that volume profile on its own doesn't have very good stats behind it, and traders using just this aren't doing that spectacularly well. Sure price can sometimes turn here, but not any more than 50% of the time. What makes a trader profitable who perhaps looks at volume profile isn't the volume profile, its actually a combination of other factors.

These things usually come out when someone is asked to show traders, both the winners and losers, and stats. Most of the time, people don't share these stats because their results are crap, but they continue to hold onto the idea that what they are doing actually works, when it in fact doesn't.

Thank you for being straight up. You're username is apropos.

I worked with volume profile for a while. I don't really have an in-depth understanding of it. In my experience it provides utility to avoid areas of congestion. My trades on it were net positive, this was in equities. I don't currently use it for trading.

I respect your point-of-view. Thank you for sharing where you are coming from.

Happy trading to you!

@Sprout
"My intention is to share the process of building the differentiated mind with respectful civil discourse in the areas that I have personally verified for myself."

Any proves?Broker verified?And i`ll exchange with you my own.Deal?

Thank you for the offer. I respectfully decline.

I personally think it's a bit crass. Besides, I only take fair deals.

Fair deals are one's where one would take either side. I do empathize where you are coming from and seeking verification through your due diligence. I myself have refrained from training courses where the instructor would not "show me theirs." However I have nothing to sell. No agenda to progress, nothing to prove and have no interest in seeing yours. No offense meant. I also need no validation for knowing what I know.

If you take issue with a specific concept, we could discuss that. You know from prior threads that I'm working to get to the next level in my trading. There are always higher and higher levels of understanding. If I have nothing of merit to offer, I suppose you could put me on ignore.

You been around long enough to know that when jack or spyder did it, it provided nothing but fuel to distract the conversation because there is no place of reference in CW's mind other than to put it in the pile of unbelievable to the point of "this must be bullshit".

No thanks. I like to learn from others mistakes and save myself the grief. Once the detractors start showing up, I'm out. This thread is on the edge.

In parting, I have utmost respect for you and your posts. They provided inspiration at dark times on my path. This is simply something we disagree upon.

Happy trading to you!

 

[Sprout]

Appreciate your posts though I don't understand most of what you wrote.

Same question for you. Let's keep it simple and just look at the price chart. What are some price patterns that have predictive values that a trader can use to trade?

And you said time-based and event-based, what time frame is your time-based and again what time frame is your event-based charts?

Regards,

ET has a search, lot's a treasures buried.

The sequence of events occurs on all time-based charts provided there is sufficient liquidity per instrument. It's easier to see on some charts than others. The 5min is where I have my attention.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

IF you can't handle loosing , then quit while you're ahead.

If you can't spell, then quit while you're ahead.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

IF you think you are gonna make a million dollars during your first 1 years trading, then quit while you're ahead.
IF you think you think all those "gurus" lifestyles are from trading alone, then quit while you're ahead.
IF you think this is easy skill to learn, then quit while you're ahead.
IF you don't have the time to dedicate, and i mean really dedicate,then quit while you're ahead.
IF you have any financial responsibility during the first couple years of the start of trading.
IF you don't like staring at charts for 4-8 hrs a day, then quit while you're ahead.
IF you think you can predict the news, then quit while you're ahead.
IF you can't handle loosing , then quit while you're ahead.
IF you think there is a "holy grail strategy", then quit while you're ahead.
IF you can't make money in SIM what makes you think you will make money live?

-mainly talking about es s&p 500 - but can be related to any market

The majority of people will lose money within in their first year, this goes for swing and day traders. For the few that keep going, that first year will be their "eye-opener" about markets. This goes for stock and futures. They will start to learn that it is not as easy as the "gurus" make it look.

Now, about these "gurus" they may be able to make money with their systems. But what you don't understand is that for most of them trading is supplementary income. They make most of their money from there subscribers. Most of these guys will show you complex strategies that might take you a while to learn, which keeps you subscribing, and after you learn it you might realize that its not the best strategy. Most of these guys on you tube and twitter scalping for a few ticks or a few points, CHUMP CHANGE! You want to be able to take advantage of the big trend moves during the intraday time and go for 10+ or at least 5pts. Of course you can scalp along the way. Now, the market isn't gonna shell out 20 pt moves everyday, so be aware of that, but on those special days with strong momo - those days can make an entire month. Dedication is important if you miss a day it could bee that day that we move 20pts. As your chart reading skills improve you will be able to identify when days like that may be likely to happen. When you can read the chart and read it well, and understand what you're looking at you'll have made great leaps on your journey.

You'll have to dedicate much more time in the beginning and then as you improve you'll notice you don't need to really do much except manage trades. The whole process will become easier as you gain confidence. All the people that like to learn and teach themselves will excel the fastest. Don't bother with "gurus". All beginners should start with sim. I would have saved 5k if i started wit sim. Also, to people that say you need 50k to trade futures, you're all snakes! A amateur should never take 50k to trade with, NEVER. Beginners, if you really think you're good enough to skip sim, please don't take more than 5k to the markets. Here's the logic, and it's similar to sim logic, IF you cant make money with 2-5k you will lose all you 50k before you know it. And don't treat the sim like a joke... If you were a pilot would you treat flight simulation like a joke and start doing doughnuts in the air? set the sim to 5k and try to double or even triple it without loosing too much. Try to do it fast, but don't force trades where there are none. when you can double that account you may be ready to go live.

If you think TA doesn't work then leave my thread now because you are an idiot. TA is the only way to trade, TA goes back to market inception. forget all you learned, clear all you indicators off your chart. Stare at naked chart for a few months and you'll start to see things differently.

Ill stop for now, if anyone finds this interesting ill continue next week.

One of the worst postings in recent memory.

 

[Sprout]

Just a shout out for all the ET sponsors. If it weren't for their valuable offerings and continued support of this site, I would not have had the opportunity to develop so quickly into the trader that I am today.

Deepest appreciation and gratitude to all !!

 

[SoesWasBetter]

One of the worst postings in recent memory.

If you buy 1 and sell 2 you're net short 1

 

[fordewind]

I could but it would deprive you of an essential experience. If you're willing to attempt the simple effort of the post you are referencing then I would be more inclined to do work that is not my own.
In a couple of days, yes, after giving a chance to anyone who wants to take up the effort.
It's rare that I have time to post as much as I recently have.




Thank you for expressing your diligence. You are correct. One would zoom out in time scale to get a approximation as the smaller (faster) time scale progresses.

If monitoring the 5min chart, you don't really know if the day's volume will surpass the previous day's or not. The opening volume gives a comparison of the previous day's opening volume, that's about it. A large market participant/s can enter at any time and cause either the dominant direction to progress with a VE or by the sheer volume they are transacting cause a shift in sentiment and therefore change. Most of this time the shift in sentiment is below the radar of those who have not taken the effort to learn how to read the markets. By the time the sentiment shift is apparent, smart money has already positioned itself and are taking profits.

An exercise is putting up a daily, 30min and 5m in a tri-pane and watch the progress. At some point in the 5m, you will know if it can or cannot (at current pace) build a 30min bar comparable to the previous one. Just as watching the 30min progress, at some point you will know if it builds the daily bar comparable to the prior.

But this misses the point. Timescales are fractal but not all fractals are timescales. A change of trend can occur and does several times throughout the day. We can call these trend segments. A larger trend can span multiple timescales. A trend can also be intra-bar.

All of this is observable.




Thank you for being straight up. You're username is apropos.

I worked with volume profile for a while. I don't really have an in-depth understanding of it. In my experience it provides utility to avoid areas of congestion. My trades on it were net positive, this was in equities. I don't currently use it for trading.

I respect your point-of-view. Thank you for sharing where you are coming from.

Happy trading to you!




Thank you for the offer. I respectfully decline.

I personally think it's a bit crass. Besides, I only take fair deals.

Fair deals are one's where one would take either side. I do empathize where you are coming from and seeking verification through your due diligence. I myself have refrained from training courses where the instructor would not "show me theirs." However I have nothing to sell. No agenda to progress, nothing to prove and have no interest in seeing yours. No offense meant. I also need no validation for knowing what I know.

If you take issue with a specific concept, we could discuss that. You know from prior threads that I'm working to get to the next level in my trading. There are always higher and higher levels of understanding. If I have nothing of merit to offer, I suppose you could put me on ignore.

You been around long enough to know that when jack or spyder did it, it provided nothing but fuel to distract the conversation because there is no place of reference in CW's mind other than to put it in the pile of unbelievable to the point of "this must be bullshit".

No thanks. I like to learn from others mistakes and save myself the grief. Once the detractors start showing up, I'm out. This thread is on the edge.

In parting, I have utmost respect for you and your posts. They provided inspiration at dark times on my path. This is simply something we disagree upon.

Happy trading to you!

For a minute there, i just thought youre trying to be a bit cocky and admonish others.Average ETers age is 50 y.o. i think, or what is it?Anyways, i don`t know your age but you sound a bit childish at times, thou i appreciate your attempt to pholosophize.

All the philosophy has nothing to do with the real world of trading, but if it helps you on your path, then God speed!Wish you nothing but the best!

And yes, you`d better dumb Jacks stuff down, for your own and others benefit and share it with us.

Cheers!