Time to go short?
- Thread starter futurecurrents
- Start date
What time is it not to go?
Do you find a job?
Do you find a job?
Quote from TheCaracal:
Quote from iceman1:
how is it "parabolic"?! I don't see that. Stocks like KLAC are 5% above June highs... no?
ICe
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Ice,
look at the sox.smh complex...it was running a great uptrend ..would go up make HH then pullback to trendline..etc..
However since 8-08-03 ..Sox has run 102 uninteruppted points..with maybe 2-3 down days the whole time...
This index is getting way ahead of itself..period.
I recall a similar time in March 2002 when this happened and I went short SMH at 50 only to cover at 45..then watch the damn thing trade to 19..after I gave up on this one....
I trade strongly off sentiment..this is running way too hot IMO...and as a counterpoint I have been long PPH since 72.75..same day as INTC upped guidance..I still await the SOX side for payday...though time is getting close to uncle point
We shall see my friend...
Best
David
I am with you brother... ! But I got a**whipped last month trying to sell options strangles on semis. SO I reversed and went long semis... and sold OTm puts; and guess what? I got "lucky" and made some good dough. Rationally... it's hard to figure why these stocks keep running, but as usual the strong (albeit irrational) trend has been my friend since. Funny how that works!Everytime I fight the market, I forfeit huge profits being an overnight, discretionary trader. Spent 2 hours talking with my GF about that subject last night. Now that I am finished kicking my a** for missing, and selling "out of the money????" calls on semis... and gettign whipsawed into covering... duh. I am ready to honor the trend until it reverses. Which as you say... it will.
But when? :eek:
Good luck... let me know (PM me) when you see a good entry point on SOX puts... in the monies ought to do the trick, and we can share thoughts. Thanks
ICe
Quote from iceman1:
are you kidding around or serious. What about today's action leads you to believe what you posted?
ICe
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Crazy as it seems, I was serious. I know that most signs point to higher levels and one should never try to pick tops or trade against the trend. I am not trading on my guess. I was looking at the relative strength of stocks that gap. I just thought that when these stocks fail to follow the market it may indicate a change in market direction.
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Thank for you the thoughts.
You're posts are always interesting.
A puzzlement sure to be.
Too much to drink you or I?
Meaning there may be, to understand not.
Assume no you english speak?
Quote from iceman1:
if anything one could/should consider 9/11 'fear', each year.... as provoking some selling by those fearng a copycat action on or near said date!
ICe
it didn't seem to happen last year (i don't recall it happening, anyway), and it should be obvious to most people that even another 9/11 style "attack" would NOT be proceeded by another selloff such as we had on 9/11/01 right after the attack.
the market action following the blackout and the general turmoil between israel and the rest of the mid east supports this.
plus there was that HUGE rally in the months following 9/11/01.
the world seems to have good confidence (and they should) that another attack, although tragic, would do little to shake the institutions of this great country, and the capitalist system as a whole...