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Time to go short?
- Thread starter futurecurrents
- Start date
this market reminds me of the experience by Jesse Livermore in Reminiscence, if I remember correctly.
He kept shorting the market, and every time, it went higher, making him cover.
To him, there was no reason for the market to go higher. But it went higher and higher until he lost much of his capital. He described it as seeing a big pile of money with his name on it; he ran after it. Then the money was gone. He lost the shovel, and the wagon that he was going to use to carry off the money.
This also reminds me of the Rogers interview in Market Wizards, where he talked about how he shorted Memorex at 48, and it went to 96. Then went down to 2.
Just because we see something, it doesn't mean that everyone else does. We are a very small group of people in this world.
I agree with Ice. there has not been any reversal. There just is no reason to short.
Time will come, you know it will. Let us not lose our capital for that time when the market will go down.
I am currently long.
Jake
He kept shorting the market, and every time, it went higher, making him cover.
To him, there was no reason for the market to go higher. But it went higher and higher until he lost much of his capital. He described it as seeing a big pile of money with his name on it; he ran after it. Then the money was gone. He lost the shovel, and the wagon that he was going to use to carry off the money.
This also reminds me of the Rogers interview in Market Wizards, where he talked about how he shorted Memorex at 48, and it went to 96. Then went down to 2.
Just because we see something, it doesn't mean that everyone else does. We are a very small group of people in this world.
I agree with Ice. there has not been any reversal. There just is no reason to short.
Time will come, you know it will. Let us not lose our capital for that time when the market will go down.
I am currently long.
Jake
I am long with fairly tight stops.
I had a friend in the spoo pit that was a perma-bear. He had made a couple of mil arbing bonds and wanted to try the spoos. Everyone does. He refused to believe it was going higher. It just has to go down he used to say. Ultimately he gave back everything, and was leasing a seat instead of owning it. Finally he busted out in September of 1987.
Who remembers what happened one month later?
I had a friend in the spoo pit that was a perma-bear. He had made a couple of mil arbing bonds and wanted to try the spoos. Everyone does. He refused to believe it was going higher. It just has to go down he used to say. Ultimately he gave back everything, and was leasing a seat instead of owning it. Finally he busted out in September of 1987.
Who remembers what happened one month later?
Quote from inandlong:
I am long with fairly tight stops.
I had a friend in the spoo pit that was a perma-bear. He had made a couple of mil arbing bonds and wanted to try the spoos. Everyone does. He refused to believe it was going higher. It just has to go down he used to say. Ultimately he gave back everything, and was leasing a seat instead of owning it. Finally he busted out in September of 1987.
Who remembers what happened one month later?
What happened to this guy when he witnessed the crash? That would've killed me, if I was in his position.
its hard to say how high we go but the sox hit 1200+ in the bubble. its 472 now. its not impossible that it could do 600-800 again.
Romeo I hear ya man. Me too. He called me at home the week before when the market started tanking and was hatin' it then. Monday evening we met for drinks, lol, I think every member was drinking that nite. He was one sad puppy. All he kept doing was smoking, and shaking his head. I sat there with him for hours, we barely spoke. What in the world could I say that would help? "keep your chin up" or "you'll be back"? yeah right.Quote from Romeo:
What happened to this guy when he witnessed the crash? That would've killed me, if I was in his position.
His wife left him, took the kids. He went BK and had to leave a sweet home in Highland Park. He got a job working an arb desk in the currencies making 30K a year. But he was working in the biz we all love.
I think the recovery sucks, valuations are too high, and that a walloping big break is in the cards. However it's not coming yet.
Right now the bottom line is, there just isn't enough stock for sale. The public hasn't yet gotten the prices they need to feel whole. Stubborn perma bulls are in the hope mode not the fear mode. Let's face it, if you didn't puke in 2001, '02 or in Mch. 03, whats the nagging impetus to get out on strength here. Coupled with the lack of retail liquidation there is the buying pressure of nervous, under invested, under performing portfolio managers. The only ones suppling the market are traders, either longer time frame guys who are scaling out of spring-summer longs, or futures shorts who are meat to the starving, carnivorous buyers.
Right now the bottom line is, there just isn't enough stock for sale. The public hasn't yet gotten the prices they need to feel whole. Stubborn perma bulls are in the hope mode not the fear mode. Let's face it, if you didn't puke in 2001, '02 or in Mch. 03, whats the nagging impetus to get out on strength here. Coupled with the lack of retail liquidation there is the buying pressure of nervous, under invested, under performing portfolio managers. The only ones suppling the market are traders, either longer time frame guys who are scaling out of spring-summer longs, or futures shorts who are meat to the starving, carnivorous buyers.