Quote from Arthur Deco:
Proffie, ain't nuthin' matters but S&R. I don't give a fuck how you chart. They all occur at the same place.
Quote from ProfLogic:
I absolutely agree Artie that all that matters is support and resistance. I absolutely agree that they all occur at the same place.
You have natural balanced support and resistance.
You have variable unbalanced support and resistance.
Traders make money using both.
The difference is ones ability to read price direction and strength from natural support & resistance is easier for those of us using CV bars. Whether anyone believes that or not is irrelevent. Those that test it can see the difference.
Then there are those individuals that will tell you that there is no difference in two baskets where one contains 20 apples and the other contains 50 apples and we are charlatans for telling you there is.
Quote from Arthur Deco:
Oh, Proffie, once again you teach me not to disagree with you. You are way to smart, or perhaps too facile, for me. But, fool that I am, I will forge ahead. In my own trading, I rarely see "imbalance." Every buyer has a seller, and versa vicey. The net position during the day, long or short, is usually a trivial percentage of the total volume. The premium does not deviate dramatically from what it "should" be. Market order traders' losses rarely deviate dramatically from the spread.
The only slack I will cut you is that the daily highs and lows sometimes don't occur at what I recognize as S or R. But I have faith that they occur at lines on the charts of traders smarter than I am.
Quote from ProfLogic:
Artie, I am not trying to be smart and am truly being sincere.
You and I both know there are many different ways to take profit from these markets. There isn't ONE single way that is better than another. Each of us that trade in these markets have to find a "sweet spot" from where we are able to make are decisions from that gives us consistent profits.
You find those decision points differently than I do but that doesn't make either one better, just different. I have no clue how you find, view or rank those support & resistance points and what you do at them that gives you further information to make a decision to trade or not. I respect that you know what you are doing because you talk the talk of someone that has taken his lumps with grace in these markets. I have no credibility to criticize your style because I don't trade like you do and am not familiar with it, likewise the same goes for what I do and how I trade.
Quote from ProfLogic:
I absolutely agree Artie that all that matters is support and resistance. I absolutely agree that they all occur at the same place...
Of course the volume of each market changes. It changes every second of every day but if the volume weight of the bars is a constant then as volume increases, the charts simple creates its bars faster. Then as volume decreases, the chart simple creates it's bars slower. The oscillations that CVB chart creates are perfectly consistent because the bar weight value never changes.
I don't understand why individuals think that by eliminating the variable aspect of a problem is curve fitting when in fact the exact opposite is true.
Let me see if I can explain this a little simpler.
Let's say I have an orchard that has 100 apple trees. Last year I had a high school kid come in to pick apples and told him I needed know the yield of the orchard but I was willing to pay him $2 a bushel for what he picked. He ended up picking 80 bushels in 8 hours but I could see some of the baskets were lighter in volume than others. The only way to get an accurate volume count (yield) was to empty the baskets and count each apple but that would take too long so I took an average but knew in advance it wouldn't be exact. I estimated I had 2400 apples. When the store bought the apples I found I had even less.
This year I hired the same lad and told him I would pay him $2.50 a bushel but he had to put 50 apples into each bushel basket. When he finished he had 80 bushels again and again he did it in 8 hours but I had an accurate count of the yield. I had a better crop of apples this year than last, I had an accurate yield count, the lad made more money for basically the same work. It is not curve fitting to count each apple picked in each basket and to make sure the same amount of apples are in each basket, that is called accuracy and consistency.
Now I know this is a simple problem but it is exactly the problem with the charts.
Above we now have production set exactly at 50 apples per bushel (an exact amount of volume per bar) the greater the production and pickers the more bushels are produced per hour. The less production and less pickers the less bushels are produced per hour but the constant is the bushels ALWAYS contains the exact same number of apples. Now multiple this problem by thousands of orchards not just my single orchard and you can see how it relates to a market that is highly liquid.
The local Honda plant doesn't pay their piece-work production employees for the number of containers they ship from the plant each day or the number of containers they produce each 8 hour day, they pay them for the number of cars IN the containers. They could easily short the containers. It is not curve fitting to count each car packed into each container each day, that is called accuracy.
These are simple business math problems that are taught in colleges throughout the world. Once I made the comparison of chart volume to a physical product in the field or in a factory and the math guys had their "light bulbs" go off.
I've traded Sugar for years and as volume increased I simply went to a slower chart. The way I read the chart was identical. I've traded the YM for years and as volume increased I simply went to a slower chart. The way I read the chart was identical. There is no such thing in what I do as a "false signal". If the chart goes into consolidation I simply go trade another market that isn't consolidating.
It must have been fun trading 100 years ago during the Sherman Anti-Trust Act. What was that like? If you were a farmer or a businessman and traded based on "time" (sub daily increments) or "transactions" back then someone would have forcibly escorted you to the nearest ship heading east back toward good old England. Technical analysis began with the Dutch in the 17th century and in Asia in the 18th century by using daily bars for the Dutch and candlesticks in Asia based on daily ranges. We have come a long way since then and now have the ability to be more accurate in our analysis. Why should be be less accurate simply because "that is the way we've done it for a hundred years". That is like Fortune's comment about his grandmother refusing to use a microwave or my father-in-law refusing to use a cell phone. Their comments have a familiar ring, "We didn't need them 50 years ago why should I use them now?".