thoughts on harmonic patterns?

[easymon1]

Carney, Pesa or any of these other gurus peddling silly patterns?

Never heard of 'em.
You tell me.

2)
A Trader Needs Money management.
A Trader Needs to have Generated Their Own Stats using a Documented Faithfully followed Benchmarking Procedure, that produces Probabilities.

There's your audit, my friend.
A trader documents the trading plan to be "audited", tested for veracity, and they will need to do that work themselves.

"Defy Human Nature, Do The Work Yourself." LP

There ARE no "Audited" systems unless the "Audit" is performed by the trader themselves.

Does that make sense to you MKTrader?

 

[MKTrader]

Never heard of 'em.
You tell me.

2)
A Trader Needs Money management.
A Trader Needs to have Generated Their Own Stats using a Documented Faithfully followed Benchmarking Procedure, that produces Probabilities.

There's your audit, my friend.
A trader documents the trading plan to be "audited", tested for veracity, and they will need to do that work themselves.

"Defy Human Nature, Do The Work Yourself." LP

There ARE no "Audited" systems unless the "Audit" is performed by the trader themselves.

Does that make sense to you MKTrader?

No, that has nothing to do with what I'm saying. There absolutely are audited trading systems and traders. Mutual fund managers, hedge funds, CTAs, third-party sites like Collective2. Since "harmonic" trading has been around for decades, it should have hard evidence of whether it works by now. I'm not going to do the backtesting of live testing for them. Show me the money or get lost. Thanks!

 

[easymon1]

No, that has nothing to do with what I'm saying. There absolutely are audited trading systems and traders. Mutual fund managers, hedge funds, CTAs, third-party sites like Collective2. Since "harmonic" trading has been around for decades, it should have hard evidence of whether it works by now. I'm not going to do the backtesting of live testing for them. Show me the money or get lost. Thanks!

"Defy Human Nature, Do The Work Yourself." LP

lol

 

[longandshort]

It looks like BS.

 

[easymon1]

If doing the work yourself is BS, whose fault is that.
That is my point.
Your fate is up to You my friend, not an audit company.
A documented tested trading plan executed by the creator of the plan enables this approach.
If it does not work, Whose Fault Is That?
Does that make sense to you?

No, that has nothing to do with what I'm saying. There absolutely are audited trading systems and traders. Mutual fund managers, hedge funds, CTAs, third-party sites like Collective2. Since "harmonic" trading has been around for decades, it should have hard evidence of whether it works by now. I'm not going to do the backtesting of live testing for them. Show me the money or get lost. Thanks!

It looks like BS.

 

[MKTrader]

If doing the work yourself is BS, whose fault is that.
That is my point.
Your fate is up to You my friend, not an audit company.
A documented tested trading plan executed by the creator of the plan enables this approach.
If it does not work, Whose Fault Is That?
Does that make sense to you?

No, the burden of proof is on you and the harmonic gurus. I say there's no edge in chart patterns that look like bats and other nonsense....and I don't care if you apply Fibonacci, Elliot Wave, Gann or Fred Flintstone to them. There's no point even wasting time unless one of the gurus (who have been writing books and doing expensive seminars for 25 years) are willing to trade live money and show their results. They aren't.

 

[spectastic]

No, the burden of proof is on you and the harmonic gurus. I say there's no edge in chart patterns that look like bats and other nonsense....and I don't care if you apply Fibonacci, Elliot Wave, Gann or Fred Flintstone to them. There's no point even wasting time unless one of the gurus (who have been writing books and doing expensive seminars for 25 years) are willing to trade live money and show their results. They aren't.

where do you think edge comes from with technical traders?

some people think edge comes from looking at chart patterns a lot. Others think it's risk management and execution. the truth is probably somewhere in between and all of the above. at least that's my opinion

 

[easymon1]

Your mommy will not do your stats for you.
Whatever system a trader casts an eye on, "Harmonic", AB/CD ratios, Whatever you may dream up.
Starting with the following criteria, you can create stats on a method.

What triggers a buy or a sell to open?
What triggers an exit?
How do you size your trades?

Does that make sense to you?

What would you say belongs in a solid trading plan?
https://elitetrader.com/et/threads/...solid-trading-plan.340340/page-4#post-5031706

No, the burden of proof is on you and the harmonic gurus. I say there's no edge in chart patterns that look like bats and other nonsense....and I don't care if you apply Fibonacci, Elliot Wave, Gann or Fred Flintstone to them. There's no point even wasting time unless one of the gurus (who have been writing books and doing expensive seminars for 25 years) are willing to trade live money and show their results. They aren't.

where do you think edge comes from with technical traders?

some people think edge comes from looking at chart patterns a lot. Others think it's risk management and execution. the truth is probably somewhere in between and all of the above. at least that's my opinion

It looks like BS.

 

[spectastic]

from what i've seen so far, nobody here has studied harmonic patterns in depth, and the best argument for why it's snake oil is because it seems like bullshit.

but I can understand. In Carney's book, he only really go over successful trades and examples. there's no discussion on psychology, sizing, r/r, failed patterns, or losing trades. All it has is perfect chart patterns, when in reality, market rarely gives you perfect patterns.

on the other hand. I've heard Carney's name come up in podcasts and I've heard him talk. I've not picked up any red flags that he's some kind of predatory course salesman, and people seem to talk about him in a positive light.

and any good trader knows trading stats are a function of the trader's execution, not native to the patterns themselves. there are a wide variety of ways to trade harmonics, just like there are a wide variety of ways to trade classical patterns. you can't say something has no edge just because there is no stats to back it up, unless you're talking about completely automated, systematic trading strategy, which is not the topic of this discussion.

---------

so let's change the angle of the topic a little bit. Has anyone actually studied harmonic patterns and made trades using the harmonic framework ?

 

[easymon1]

from what i've seen so far, nobody here has studied harmonic patterns in depth, and the best argument for why it's snake oil is because it seems like bullshit.

but I can understand. In Carney's book, he only really go over successful trades and examples. there's no discussion on psychology, sizing, r/r, failed patterns, or losing trades. All it has is perfect chart patterns, when in reality, market rarely gives you perfect patterns.

on the other hand. I've heard Carney's name come up in podcasts and I've heard him talk. I've not picked up any red flags that he's some kind of predatory course salesman, and people seem to talk about him in a positive light.

and any good trader knows trading stats are a function of the trader's execution, not native to the patterns themselves. there are a wide variety of ways to trade harmonics, just like there are a wide variety of ways to trade classical patterns. you can't say something has no edge just because there is no stats to back it up, unless you're talking about completely automated, systematic trading strategy, which is not the topic of this discussion.

---------

so let's change the angle of the topic a little bit. Has anyone actually studied harmonic patterns and made trades using the harmonic framework ?

Is this a free book or is it for sale for profit?
Who benefits?

Does he include in his book the following:
What triggers a buy or a sell to open?
What triggers an exit?
How do you size your trades?

Believe none of what you read or hear and only half of what you see.

Is this Rocket Science?