Thoughts about my VIX trade

Quote from IV_Trader:

I say it's opens at 35 and touches 40 intraday...unless the rate cut , lol
Thoughts ?
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You forgot that these option's underlying is May08 futures, but not the VIX itself. So there was nothing wrong with this position at January, because of strong backwardation in VIX futures. Highest price for may futures was 28 at 22/1/2008, so that's ok.

Certainly, more threat will appear when may become front month, but I see that position is already profitable (6.35-2.2*2=1.95), so why not to buy 35 Call for 0.75 ?

Not a very big price for a good sleep :)
 
Quote from evogel:



Certainly, more threat will appear when may become front month, but I see that position is already profitable (6.35-2.2*2=1.95)
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Yes, up two handles at unbound risk after two months of waiting. Some trade. Would you be here posting if the vix sat at 50 today?
 
Quote from evogel:

You forgot that these option's underlying is May08 futures, but not the VIX itself. So there was nothing wrong with this position at January, because of strong backwardation in VIX futures. Highest price for may futures was 28 at 22/1/2008, so that's ok.

Certainly, more threat will appear when may become front month, but I see that position is already profitable (6.35-2.2*2=1.95), so why not to buy 35 Call for 0.75 ?

Not a very big price for a good sleep :)
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I am not sure what your reply has to do with my post from 1/21.
This what vix did NEXT morning :

Date Open High
22-Jan-08 35.12 37.57
 
Quote from sellvol:

Yes, up two handles at unbound risk after two months of waiting. Some trade. Would you be here posting if the vix sat at 50 today?
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Just wanted to point out that it's incorrect to look just on VIX and not on futures, so the odds are really better than someone could suppose at first sight . Of course, if VIX grows above 50, loss is inevitable.
 
Quote from dberliner:

Earlier this month I have performed the following VIX Backratio spread:


- Bought 10 May 2008 20C @ 4.8
- Sold 20 May 2008 27.5C @ 2.4


I seem to be covered completely in a downtrending vix and in an uptrending vix covered up to 35 , from which I start losing money, sweet spot at 27.5.

Vix seems to have trouble staying above 35 , but of course that could very well change next year.. I'm trying to assess trade management here, most favorably dumping the trade if VIX remains above 40 , where I will of course lose a few grand, but less and less with each passing day , due to favorable theta. Hope I'm not missing anything here.
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my , oh my
as the man said...tonight ...Ich Bin Ein "Berliner"
 
My $VIX trade is up shits creek too. I'm short Apr 30 calls, covered at 37.5. Luckily I have another month to hope I see a price that lets me roll to may.

Cheers deberliner, doesn't losing large sums of money make you feel so alive!
 
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