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Nine_Ender said:
A good chunk of retail has been long the market all along ( buy and holders of index based mutual funds or etfs). It would informative to see the net inflows and outflows of money by year on these types of investments.

My guess, a lot of speculators lost their shirt the last few years shorting the market or equities against trend. There was a time on here when that's all you read, I remember posting that most bull markets last 4-5 years minimum and a bunch of jokers on here were saying the S&P was going to 660 again, and that we weren't in a bull market !!!

A certain amount of retail might have given up on markets in 2008 and won't come back. A lot of young people don't have reliable income, so that's another impact on retail, less risk takers wanting to speculate on frothy moves.

But we'd need to study the flow of money to know.
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I agree that it would be most useful to study the flow of money by investor type.

Well if what you say is true that a good chunk of retail has been in since the lows of 2009 then doesn't that make them the 'smart money'?

Those who have been in for the last 4 or 5 years are sitting on some nice profits and they are going to have to offload their shares to someone at some point, but who? The young people as you say don't have reliable incomes so it can't be them. Can it?

One possible scenerio is no 'dumb money' shows up and some catastrophic unforseen event occurs. A mad rush for the exit ensues which would see massive illiquid liquidation of stocks at much lower prices as the professional money is trying to offload to proffesional money.

Has anyone else thought about this?
 
DrEvil said:
Well if what you say is true that a good chunk of retail has been in since the lows of 2009 then doesn't that make them the 'smart money'?
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They can't be the smart money if a sharp decline will wipes out all their gains. They are just dumb money waiting to get raped.
 
the chances of going higher and higher are much better than the odds of getting a massive sell-off. It's the way it HAS to be on the ES/SPY.
 
Perhaps it will be BRICS retail investors that down the road ultimately come in and buy at much higher prices and putting in the real top. Any thoughts?
 
Measured in dollars many markets are already in or close to being in a bear market including europe.

Longer term demographics dictate the price of capital and labor must go up. In this perspective stocks are clearly overvalued.

Animal spirit is nowhere to be seen, large governments ensure money velocity will not increase anytime soon.
 
Voodoo-king said:
Measured in dollars many markets are already in or close to being in a bear market including europe.

Longer term demographics dictate the price of capital and labor must go up. In this perspective stocks are clearly overvalued.

Animal spirit is nowhere to be seen, large governments ensure money velocity will not increase anytime soon.
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LOL..... you do realize the more bearish stuff you keep posting the higher the market is going right?... just sayin'
 
I'd simply avoid trying to call tops in this market. It's been pretty easy to forecast strong downswings but trying to call tops has proven futile.
 
EqtTrdr said:
WOW... GREAT top call ..LOL
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Yeah!!!!! No top, impossible !
BUY, JUST BUY NEAR TOP !!!!! BEST STRAT EVER !
BUY NEAR TOP = YOU PUSH TO NEW HIGHS, SO NO MORE TOP !!!!! Perpetual WIN !!!!
NASDAQ in march 2000 was a silly fake drop :( . SHOULD Have not EXIST ...
S and P in oct 2007 too was a silly fake drop :( . SHOULD Have not EXIST ...
SAD THAT SOME LOST MONEY... but 99% you win ! Just buy!!!
 
And remember, it is Christmas !!!!
S&P must go to 2100, Nasdaq 100 to 4500 !!
When it is Christmas, it is joy and peace for everyone !
No top, remember, trees go to the sky, everyone knows!!!!!!
 
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