This is the top

Chris Mac · Dec 19, 2014

Aj2014 said:
shouldn't have dropped. It's just a fake drop.
Long Mar ES here at 2064 - target 2094

Exactly !!! I agree !!!!!
Buying near tops help to make new highs ! Best strategy ever!!!! Big money coming for everyone thanks to new new new new new highs! It s magic! Perpetual win-win mechanism !
Imagine that some people try to buy at reasonable price when everyone panics and sells ! Non sense!!!!!!!

trade4love · Dec 19, 2014

Voodoo-king said:
This is the top, no more upside left, the market will crash and burn

Day Trading/Intraday - Short all you want (I do

)

Investing - Think again... Speculation breaks the bank. Wait for "the big sell-off", then tell everyone you called it

Aj2014 · Dec 19, 2014

Aj2014 said:
shouldn't have dropped. It's just a fake drop.
Long Mar ES here at 2064

first 6 points profit done. More to go as there is now no reason at why we should drop at all, and it we do, it's just a silly fake drop.
HOLD long!!

DrEvil · Dec 19, 2014

This has probably been said (I didn't read the other comments) but the real top won't be in till retail is all in. The smart money will continue to support this market until they have sold to the dumb money (btw it's always been retail ... who else could it be?).

To my knowledge this move since from the 2009 lows has largely been hated by retail and they have for the most part not participated. Am I wrong on that? If I am right then who knows how high the markets will go before retail can't take it any longer and goes all in. It could be far far higher than here.

Any thoughts?

Aj2014 · Dec 19, 2014

DrEvil said:
This has probably been said (I didn't read the other comments) but the real top won't be in till retail is all in. The smart money will continue to support this market until they have sold to the dumb money (btw it's always been retail ... who else could it be?).

To my knowledge this move since from the 2009 lows has largely been hated by retail and they have for the most part not participated. Am I wrong on that? If I am right then who knows how high the markets will go before retail can't take it any longer and goes all in. It could be far far higher than here.

Any thoughts?

correct. And yes, we have LOADS higher to go.

DrEvil · Dec 19, 2014

The question is (at least for myself) is, do we get at least one decent 20% or more correction along the way? If it there are no meaningful corrections from here to the ultimate top then, seriously, where is the fun in that?

Money Trust · Dec 19, 2014

DrEvil said:
This has probably been said (I didn't read the other comments) but the real top won't be in till retail is all in. The smart money will continue to support this market until they have sold to the dumb money (btw it's always been retail ... who else could it be?).

To my knowledge this move since from the 2009 lows has largely been hated by retail and they have for the most part not participated. Am I wrong on that? If I am right then who knows how high the markets will go before retail can't take it any longer and goes all in. It could be far far higher than here.

Any thoughts?

You just described the average market campaign. The big operators markup a market and distribute to the public for the markdown. I don't think the public participated in the current bull market that early (2009). LOL. The public was still scared of investments because of the economic depression.

EqtTrdr · Dec 19, 2014

WOW... GREAT top call ..LOL

Nine_Ender · Dec 20, 2014

DrEvil said:
This has probably been said (I didn't read the other comments) but the real top won't be in till retail is all in. The smart money will continue to support this market until they have sold to the dumb money (btw it's always been retail ... who else could it be?).

To my knowledge this move since from the 2009 lows has largely been hated by retail and they have for the most part not participated. Am I wrong on that? If I am right then who knows how high the markets will go before retail can't take it any longer and goes all in. It could be far far higher than here.

Any thoughts?

A good chunk of retail has been long the market all along ( buy and holders of index based mutual funds or etfs). It would informative to see the net inflows and outflows of money by year on these types of investments.

My guess, a lot of speculators lost their shirt the last few years shorting the market or equities against trend. There was a time on here when that's all you read, I remember posting that most bull markets last 4-5 years minimum and a bunch of jokers on here were saying the S&P was going to 660 again, and that we weren't in a bull market !!!

A certain amount of retail might have given up on markets in 2008 and won't come back. A lot of young people don't have reliable income, so that's another impact on retail, less risk takers wanting to speculate on frothy moves.

But we'd need to study the flow of money to know.

Nine_Ender · Dec 20, 2014

EqtTrdr said:
WOW... GREAT top call ..LOL

Guessing tops on a trending market is a fools game, as many have shown on here from 2009-2014. I'm not sold on going long US indexes the next year or so, but wouldn't ever expect to know what the last leg is in a strong bull market. If history is any indication, I wouldn't want to be holding equities into the summer of 2015, because higher interest rates are forecast for the fall.