we'll have 2k/day by next week.....it's going to be a complete and utter shit showSo much for socialized medicine. Despite all the shortcomings of the Administration to combat this virus, I am surprised that our death rate is not higher. People in Italy were actually following directions unlike us, and yet their death rate is through the roof. In spite of the fact our numbers rise, I wonder if the death rate will spike. We have had 2010 death with 113K cases or <2%.
I am betting there will be a huge spike. Watch this video on the parameters of the SIR model, which considers social distancing, neighborhood interaction, neighborhood size, clustering locations, quarantine probabilities, and rule violation probabilities. This affects the R_0 value. The Spanish Flu R_0 = 2, they estimate Corona is R_0 ~ 4.
Three words: Martial Law Needed.
4 to 6 weeks. No one goes anywhere or they get arrested or shot. Close the markets. Shut everything down and I mean everything but hospitals..pharmaceuticals.
The military and only the military can operate with speed and precision. The civil gov cannot and all they can do is yap and yap about social distancing..etc. Democratic principles cannot get the public thru this. Only an autocratic gov can get us thru this ...one that dishes out the orders and expect them to be obeyed or else.....
When the house is burning down the fire chief doesn’t call for a vote on what to do.
never gonna happen...as much as people fear this pandemic, a despot exerting martial law is way more frightening.