The strength lies in the fact that the market is oversold and the fundamentals are very strong. Sometimes when the market appears strong it suddenly reverses such as last July when the dow gained 300 points and then lost it all the following week.
This is the best time 2 buy ever
- Thread starter stock_trad3r
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The strength lies in the fact that the market is oversold and the fundamentals are very strong. Sometimes when the market appears strong it suddenly reverses such as last July when the dow gained 300 points and then lost it all the following week.
I think you mean a 7% historical risk premium?...beause historically, the markets have an expected return of about 11.8%.
And that is just an average. It has absolutely nothing to do with year to year returns. The markets have a one standard deviation of about 15%, which means you have a 67% chance of the market being in a range of either going up another 19% this year or falling another 11% this year.
Lastly, that all assumes a normal distribution which the markets are definitely NOT normally distributed.
*edit*...had to fix some numerical errors on my part
Since it is 11% that further bolsters my argument.
I'm not sure why you think that. You're using a statistic that is virtually meaningless in terms of a 1-year time-frame.
If you really want to get technical with using statistics, you really only have 63% chance that we'll go higher than 7% returns on the year and a 37% chance that we'll go lower if using straight probabilities.
But like I said, that is really a meaningless thing to say unless you're looking at long-term investing. You can't use the "median" expected returns as a benchmark on a short-term or a medium-term basis. It has zero value in terms of predicting market movement.
Next Week will be an Up week.
Good luck to short sellers. You're going to need it.
Good luck to short sellers. You're going to need it.
You'll have to forgive me disagreeing with you, but I hardly think this will qualify as the best buying opportunity EVER. A good buying opportunity, sure thats possible - at this point I'm open to the idea that my bearish scenario and analysis, while spot on, is going to take awhile to play out because the big important folks are not just going to roll over. I think though that one of the reasons people don't have a lot of respect for you here, even though thus far you have had a good track record, is because of outragious statements like that. I mean the best buy ever? What about after November of 87, what about March of 2003? What about buying Airlines on Sept 17th 2001 (have a look at LUV and CAL if you are anaware of what I'm talking about). Even those examples, while all good, maybe even great buying opportunities in hindsight might fall short of being the best time ever.
I guess what I'm saying is if you were to tone down your statements, some valid points you have had might actually get through to people, people might respect you more, even if they disagree with you. Of course on the 'net some people have strange motivations and want to create a personality that they can not or will not express in real life, and that is a legit if thats what your doing. Anyway, carry on.
The thread title is intended to be sensationalist to a degree. Best buying opp. ever? Nope that would be 1939 end of great depression or Oct 2002. But it is good buying opp. and it is catchier than calling the thread '23rd best buying opportunity ever' or something like that.