this is a bear market for 10 years.

tsfx said:
You do post logical arguments. I guess the markets are then all about the fact that people simply don't have the liquidity needed. So now it's a race to take as much out as possible. Will it be temporary when we look back a year from now ? Probably, but it can easily go to low enough that noone predict before making a u-turn. It's all about the liquidity. Nowadays, people do seem to weather longer so that just makes the markets wider. Markets are all about to stop you out, only the unleveraged get rewarded. But that reward isn't attractive to those who trade with 10-100k accounts which the majority is. Think about it, a 50k account with EVEN a 10% yearly return (which non of them will make consistantly in the long term) is a mere 400 usd/month gross salary so leverage is sadly the only option for them.
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that's why I been saying this is a massive shake up.

they shook twice in 2018 after the 2017 rise...now after the 2019 rise a shake up is again needed and corona is here conveniently.

now some people looking back say hey I told you so, shoulda get out and buy the dip... if market timers are so smart why do they all underperform.

problem is the equity earning yield is so far above the bond yields at some point a FOMO blow off will happen, so you never want to get out just because there has been a big run like in 2017 and 2019.... just need to hunker down and stay in the game until the valuation finally catches up.

the leverage part I can understand, you can't make a living with $10-100k.... on that topic I been posting before - the number 1 priority for most people is getting that earning potential up in this best job market ever, well before the corona anyway, and it will recover once the summer comes to kill the virus..... think about yourself if you make $50k you are a $1m bond yielding 5%.... get some training jump job to $100k now you are a $2m bond.... that's the easiest $1m you ever make.... then once the income is up, throw every penny into the QQQ or just MAGA and play the long game that's how you get rich.

so what some peanut traders making a few grand in this recent volatility... them losers never gonna make it big. I am talking about multiple $m... the super cycle is still happening, get every $ you can earn and throw in it... I am talking about a super cycle like the Chinese real estate 20-30 year run where price goes up 20-50 fold... the QQQ already went up 10 fold from the 2009 bottom... think big, think another 10 fold from TODAY'S PRICES.

that's how you get wealthy.
 
Good points, from a trading standpoint it's useful to have both bull and bear favorite strategies lined up each day... for example

If premkt futs are up my bull strategy is buy TQQQ SVXY and gap continuations

If red futures then I'll buy SQQQ TWM VXX and scale in

Also hedges in DWT/UWT and NUGT/JNUG, and watchlist UBER MGM PENN
 
dozu888 said:
that's why I been saying this is a massive shake up.

they shook twice in 2018 after the 2017 rise...now after the 2019 rise a shake up is again needed and corona is here conveniently.

now some people looking back say hey I told you so, shoulda get out and buy the dip... if market timers are so smart why do they all underperform.

problem is the equity earning yield is so far above the bond yields at some point a FOMO blow off will happen, so you never want to get out just because there has been a big run like in 2017 and 2019.... just need to hunker down and stay in the game until the valuation finally catches up.

the leverage part I can understand, you can't make a living with $10-100k.... on that topic I been posting before - the number 1 priority for most people is getting that earning potential up in this best job market ever, well before the corona anyway, and it will recover once the summer comes to kill the virus..... think about yourself if you make $50k you are a $1m bond yielding 5%.... get some training jump job to $100k now you are a $2m bond.... that's the easiest $1m you ever make.... then once the income is up, throw every penny into the QQQ or just MAGA and play the long game that's how you get rich.

so what some peanut traders making a few grand in this recent volatility... them losers never gonna make it big. I am talking about multiple $m... the super cycle is still happening, get every $ you can earn and throw in it... I am talking about a super cycle like the Chinese real estate 20-30 year run where price goes up 20-50 fold... the QQQ already went up 10 fold from the 2009 bottom... think big, think another 10 fold from TODAY'S PRICES.

that's how you get wealthy.
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all your argument is based on the assumption that the virus will go away in the summer. In Singapore, Malaysia and India, the virus still spreads though at a lower pace. Even if hot weather may end the virus spreading, it can come back again in the winter. Some patients who have recovered still have the virus dormant which can outbreak any time. I think the virus is only a catalyst for the market crash which has gone too far and too long.
 
trend2009 said:
all your argument is based on the assumption that the virus will go away in the summer. In Singapore, Malaysia and India, the virus still spreads though at a lower pace. Even if hot weather may end the virus spreading, it can come back again in the winter. Some patients who have recovered still have the virus dormant which can outbreak any time. I think the virus is only a catalyst for the market crash which has gone too far and too long.
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not assumption. a fact.

there are cases in hot climate due to imports. and of course you have air conditioned pockets where temperature is low.

sure it may come back, so what, I made multiple posts today.... it's a flu on steroids. so what.

now do we need a correction after the 2019 run? perhaps, that's why I explained many times this is a shake up.

too far too long? according to who, those who are empty handed and missed the rally? already made many many many posts why stocks are still dirty cheap!
 
if we calculate the possible price worthy entering, we may use dividend/price ratio as an indicator. in 2008, the dividend/price is around 3%, in 2000, it is around 2%. when spy again touches 3%, it is S&P at 2000.
 
The main thing is to figure out how to make winning trades regardless of market direction.

The only markets I hate are slow choppy sideways grinds.

If we get a sharp relief rally I will try and win with TQQQ, if we tank I'll scale back into VXX.

I don't predict day to day, I react. Big picture I've been bearish since January but day to day anything can happen, it's a headline driven market.

I TRADE it, all I care about is making money, I don't overthink it :p
 
trend2009 said:
all your argument is based on the assumption that the virus will go away in the summer. In Singapore, Malaysia and India, the virus still spreads though at a lower pace. Even if hot weather may end the virus spreading, it can come back again in the winter. Some patients who have recovered still have the virus dormant which can outbreak any time. I think the virus is only a catalyst for the market crash which has gone too far and too long.
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In Indonesia for example which has a higher humidity with warm weather right now has seen corona cases at 2 person per 1M, compare that to 978 cases per 1M in Italy. Given how it spreads (much like the flu, germs in the open air) there is a little logic to seasonality. It's not just the hot weather, you need humidity too, plus people need to be outside more. Everything spreads super easy with heated inside rooms like restaurants, schools, public transports etc. Those are the main places where people have a distance of less than 1m in masses and you are guaranteed to get a virus.

Can it come back next winter ? Sure, but i'm also sure we have a vaccine by then. Medical corporations just can't let that cash flow get away :)

Has the market gone too far you say ? The problem that many of you have with that is you compare things in nominal terms. You do realize that market can be more expensive when the price is 1000 than 2000 for example ? Everything needs to be seen within context. Europe and UK were very cheap compared to the US and at a good price compared to index P/E's, but they have still dumped more than the US. Dax has been down 40%+.

All that being said, since we are in unchartered territory it's impossible to tell how everything will unfold. Fundamentally, assets are cheap but who cares about fundamentals if you are about to lose all your money ? My worry is that since everything is so linked together, it can cause a series of evens across all the asset classes. And i think you know which asset class i'm referring to.
 
trend2009 said:
if we calculate the possible price worthy entering, we may use dividend/price ratio as an indicator. in 2008, the dividend/price is around 3%, in 2000, it is around 2%. when spy again touches 3%, it is S&P at 2000.
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NET earnings yield is better. You get the idea of which asset class is offering premiums. The same way you calculate the "earnings yield" on your real estate investment through renting.
 
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