this is a bear market for 10 years.

Same things were said after the 9/11 tech crash and the housing bubble crash.

This is not a deep systemic collapse in the market, it is an artificial creation that could end in 4 weeks and then get a lot of financial support. We will not spike back to where we were but a 2-3 year bear market seems hyperbole.
 
Once bitten twice shy, who's gonna invest in stocks when they got burned by the drop, anytime soon?

Millennials on Robin hood? Nope

Boomers with smaller retirement funds? Nope

Laid-off unemployed? Nope

Things are in a state of shock for at least this year.

Only us active traders, wall street traders and algos minding the store for awhile, and we go short and long... degenerate traders lol

No investors much for awhile. Bull plays will be short squeezes, relief rallies and times during buybacks.

Loving inverse ETFs
 
trend2009 said:
look at the big chart, the market spent nearly 13 years to jump out of the consolidation between 2000-2013, and then spent 6 years to move another 125%. the momentum of this decline is much stronger than 2000 and 2008. in 2000 and 2008, spy crashed 50%. this time, if the market also goes down 50%, it will be at 1700. since the momentum is stronger, I guess the market will test 1300-1500 area. then we will not see 3400 in next decade.
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I disagree with every aspect your theory. Huge support for the SPX in the 1900-2000 area similar to the support the TSX already has in the 11500-11900 area. V shaped recovery is almost a lock on US markets once they make a floor. Might be a truncated V until the economy sorts itself out ( eg 3400 might not happen but 3000-3200 seems likely within a year imo )

However, it matters very little short term US markets have risk and uncertainty whereas much better value on the TSX. Canadians overreact to crisis drove the TSX to a floor already tons of trading opportunities. I like mining as a play on the crisis being bad Gold could set new highs in certain outcomes.

Like any forecast there is no certainty only probability. If we did go to 1500, it's a massive buying opportunity that will easily double within 5 years. However, the poor preparation in the US for the virus adds more downside risk then normal. It also creates a strong opportunity on good news.
 
KCalhoun said:
1700 easy, agree... I'm buying TWM SQQQ... bearish until end of this year at bare bear minimum :p
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I doubt we break 1900 to any lasting degree there is just too much upside potential on many US listed stocks at those levels. I think we get a huge rally at some point this year that most including yourself will totally miss.
 
schizo said:
I've said this before. One thing for certain is that USA will be the next "Japan version 2" and we will never see the ATH again in our lifetime.
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And you will be wrong on this. The only way the ATH doesn't get taken out on US indexes in your lifetime is if you die because of the virus within 1-2 years. US markets are global in nature.
 
gkishot said:
If you believe it's a bear market for 10 years then you believe that people won't get back to work for the next 10 years.
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Yes the doomsday prophesies are similar to early 2009. I don't think the virus has will have the lasting impact on markets that the subprime mortgage crisis had. Downside will overshoot on panic and fear creating a massive contrarian opportunity even easier to trade then trying to guess the top on the way up.
 
If this was a 15 minute chart would you buy the close of that bar or sell it?
I'd buy for the bottom of an eventual trading range. Bull markets this
strong transition into trading ranges, not bear market. Although
the bar looks scary, dont sweat it.

buytheclose.JPG
 
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