Let me know when it is above 30 will ya. No rush!
This guy thinks a 30% drop is coming
- Thread starter S2007S
- Start date
The Shiller PE is around 36, very high, but not the highest its been, market could have a 30% to 60% crash sometime in the next few years. In mean time it go up another 30% to new record highs before it crashes at least 30%.
The hard thing is to predict when its going to happen, if any of us could do that we would all be very rich
The hard thing is to predict when its going to happen, if any of us could do that we would all be very rich
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30% drop = 1700 ES points drop = US$84 000 profit per lot
Who the hell is this fortune teller?
Where is his track record?
Why he didn't predict when it is going to drop?
US$84000 profit per lot (over don't know 1 day/week/month/year/decade/century/millennium ...)
could be a decent or very miserable profit.
When you do fortune-telling, you must specify
- when it will start
- how long is the duration
Don't write like you are writing a bible.
Who the hell is this fortune teller?
Where is his track record?
Why he didn't predict when it is going to drop?
US$84000 profit per lot (over don't know 1 day/week/month/year/decade/century/millennium ...)
could be a decent or very miserable profit.
When you do fortune-telling, you must specify
- when it will start
- how long is the duration
Don't write like you are writing a bible.
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@Overnight
Not sure what this Post of yours means. Did you write invisible ink?
Not sure what this Post of yours means. Did you write invisible ink?
No. It is a bug in the forum software. It is why the ignore/block feature needs to be removed from this site.
Its a very interesting chart. Looks like the P/E went parabolic from 1926-1929 & then again from 1996-2000. P/E went 12-32 in the late 1920s & 22-44 in the late 1990s. That's a 100%-150% move so if the parabola strikes again it could double. My guess is this what will probably happen, although I don't know the exact timeline. There could be huge drawdowns like the Asian real estate crisis & Russian sovereign default brought in 1998.The Shiller PE is around 36, very high, but not the highest its been, market could have a 30% to 60% crash sometime in the next few years. In mean time it go up another 30% to new record highs before it crashes at least 30%.
The hard thing is to predict when its going to happen, if any of us could do that we would all be very rich
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It was the Russian default that triggered the collapse of LTCM and which brought the first of the liquidity sprays brought by that psycho Greenspan. LTCM's strategy of reversion to the mean blew up in their face.
This guy thinks a 30% drop is coming
-This guy has obviously missed his entry and is now desperately hoping the market comes down enough for him to enter the market.
Fed is about to lower the rate, one of the last central banks in the world to do so, the market is not dropping unless there is some extreme black swan events like another deadly pandemic, major escalation in the Israeli-Middle East conflict that greatly impacts oil price...
Even with these black swan events, there is no way the market will drop 30%.