This guy thinks a 30% drop is coming

Didn't follow link, but a 30% drop is very very unlikely without some sort of Market Contagion.

Market maybe a bit ahead of itself, but not 30% imo.
 
Using an 18 month lag period, the economy will fully feel 5%+ interest rates towards the end of the year/ early next year.

However the fed will have started to cut rates so that will have a positive psychology impact during what would otherwise be max pain. However if its just 0.25% or 0.5% worth of cuts, that might not be enough.


Regarding 30%, the market could fall 50%, but timing the next crash is the hard part, could happen anytime over the next 5 years.
 
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I always wonder why a market can rally straight up for months and years and years and never ever be overbought, but a quick 3% drop in 4 days and it's automatically considered heavily oversold.

It's easy to see why 99% of people could never Fathom the possibility of a 30% drop, which would actually once again take the market to lows only seen around a year and a half ago...with markets only moving 1 direction the opposite direction feels almost impossible, that's how market psychology works.
 
S2007S said:
I always wonder why a market can rally straight up for months and years and years and never ever be overbought, but a quick 3% drop in 4 days and it's automatically considered heavily oversold.
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When the crash starts, say the market is already down 15%, then the VIX goes above 30 and the market has days when it drops 3 to 5% in one day etc...

In that mode it doesn't take long to reach a 30% crash.

What looked almost impossible to imagine when the VIX was below 15, looks a lot easier to imagine when the VIX is above 30..
 
Businessman said:
When the crash starts, say the market is already down 15%, then the VIX goes above 30 and the market has days when it drops 3 to 5% in one day etc...

In that mode it doesn't take long to reach a 30% crash.
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I agree very strongly...especially when you say that by the time people acknowledge the drop its already down double digits...that is very true. You will not see anyone cashing in stocks at nasdaq 18000 but at 16000 they will throw in the towel after the stock they had say a 43% gain is now only a 17% gain.
 
I doubt that will happen, however there are plenty of stocks already near 5-10 year lows like Nike & Starbux. I think Ed Yardeni has talked about this rotating recession phenomenon for awhile now. I think without severe cuts to the FF rate housing stocks are about to tank as well. If you look at the internal action the last 3 days the cyclicals are crashing & everyone is loading up on big tech & semis (and other niche growth stories like CMG, CAVA, etc.).

Yardeni was the guy who coined the term "Bond Vigilantes" in the early 1980s.
 
A poorly written report.
It doesn't show any evidence that BCA Research has been doing a good job in market prediction.


If everybody were to make a prediction, there would be 7 billion reports for us to read.
There should be some sort of filter to filter out those useless/garbage/worthless predictions.
 
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