If you are investing for the last 8 years only.
This guy says the bull market is already starting... Where was he since 2009?
- Thread starter S2007S
- Start date
This is absurd beyond description. The market sold off 30%. The VIX went from 12 to over 60, a level we have rarely seen in history. And pessimism was at levels we had not seen since the great depression. THAT is not a bull market. Bull markets do have corrections but they are orderly and not sheer panic where everyone thinks the world is going to end. BTW, that pessimism has been in this market until recently. One last thing you can look at is, are people making money. The last 10 years very few people have made money which can be demonstrated by the chronic under performance of both mutual funds and hedge funds. Only the passive ETF holder has enjoyed this move.
Actual Bull and Bear Markets are determined by long term charts only---And one must either have obvious reversal or a close below support or resistance levels. In 2011 (the year you describe) there was certainly no obvious reversal and the support level was the 1000 area and was never close to being to being touched. More recently at the end of last year, we had support at 1800 area and that was attempted to go through, but it quickly rebounded from that area and kept the bull market intact.
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Now we sometimes refer to being in a bull or a bear market on shorter term time frames and I have used these terms as well, but these are really just corrections in the overall longer term Bull and Bear. When you hear analysts speaking about Bull and Bear , they are referring to the longer term picture and that is what we describe here. This is the longest Bull market run in history. Reminder---it's only we traders that pay attention to short term charts like daily and below. So when Bull and Bear are talked about in public---it's the long term view.
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And where was that magical support line in 2007? Here is the problem, all this talk looks great after the fact. It's easy in 2016 to look back at 2009 and say what a great buy that was.
But you can only say that after the fact. If you would have asked anyone in 2009 if we were in a bull market no one would have answered yes. In fact, the great PTJ went public saying when we rallied back up to 950 to 1000 that was the sell of the century. A perfect bear market bounce to sell into. He wasn't alone.
Also you say we never got close to touching 1000. That is not true. We came down to that level in the flash crash hitting the 1010 to 1020 area. Close enough for gov't work and certainly close enough to not make the statement we didn't even get close to it. The problem with chart traders is they draw their charts "after" the fact. I suppose you will tell me we are in a bear market when we are 30% off the highs and ask why I didn't short at the top when it was "oh so obvious".
Postpone the rate hike will cause a drop?
We have been in secular bull market from 3-2009 to present. The bewildered herd shows up on the last up leg on a bull market all the way to the top. It looks like they are finally showing up now with the bond bubble popping and the election catalyst there are signs they are getting in now although we are no where near the type of excitement in the period that leads to a top - at least in terms of historical norms.
S&P 500 If you don't think the price action from 3-2009 to present is a bull market you may be in the wrong business. (hehe)
S&P 500 If you don't think the price action from 3-2009 to present is a bull market you may be in the wrong business. (hehe)