This guy says the bull market is already starting... Where was he since 2009?

S

S2007S


Starting to really remind me of the dot com bubble and all the previous bubbles the market went through....just getting started? So the last 240%+ increase in the averages since 2009 isn't enough of a bull market already? Got ya!


This bull market is just getting started
Jack Bouroudjian | @JackBouroudjian
4 Hours Ago
104155224-GettyImages-480167648.530x298.jpg

Miguel Riopa | AFP | Getty Images
Participants run in front of Fuente Ymbro's bulls during the fourth 'encierro' (bull-run) of the San Fermin Festival in Pamplona, northern Spain, on July 10, 2015.


In 2008, in the middle of the banking crisis, it became evident that Senator McCain and the Republicans were in for a big surprise as Barack Obama's poll numbers suggested that he was on his way to the oval office.

This was a time of great concern for the international banking sector as credit began to seize all around the world. There were many contributing factors that led to the crisis, timing, demographics, a real estate bubble etc. Many books have already been written about the structural problems which were the foundation for a near collapse of the global financial system.


Continued here:

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/08/this-bull-market-is-just-getting-started.html
 
Maverick74 said:
Just recovering back to the highs is not a bull market. The move from the 2008 lows back to 1500 was a "recovery", not a bull market. We didn't make new highs till 2013. That is when the bull market started. Not the crisis lows.
More...
That's a damn good point.
 
Maverick74 said:
Just recovering back to the highs is not a bull market. The move from the 2008 lows back to 1500 was a "recovery", not a bull market. We didn't make new highs till 2013. That is when the bull market started. Not the crisis lows.
More...

It's still a 250% rally....bull market or bear market....however earnings are no where near representing such an increase in equity prices...
 
S2007S said:
It's still a 250% rally....bull market or bear market....however earnings are no where near representing such an increase in equity prices...
More...

You are using the wrong metrics. Tell me where earnings where in 1998. We were at 1500 in 1998, that was 18 years ago!!! Today we are at 2242. That means equity prices are only up 50% in 18 years!!!! That's only 2.3% a year compounded for 18 years. I suspect earnings are up a lot more then that.
 
Maverick74 said:
Just recovering back to the highs is not a bull market. The move from the 2008 lows back to 1500 was a "recovery", not a bull market. We didn't make new highs till 2013. That is when the bull market started. Not the crisis lows.
More...

Using a similar view on a bear market means that we will never be in a bear market until we hit something like 50 in S&P.... everything until that would be a pullback? Just semantics IMO.
 
We've been in a bull market ever since the 1940's..
upload_2016-12-9_11-56-31.png


More interestingly is the inflation adjusted S&P chart...

upload_2016-12-9_11-57-57.png


Not an expert in Elliot Waves etc... but this looks like we just started the 3rd wave? Next top S&P at 10.000 around the 2030's????
Of course there's no data pre-1920's... which makes it food for debunkers!! :D

EDIT... looks more like a top of S&P at 20.000 but inflation adjusted would mean only 400% return ;). Anyway... where's the 5.000 Dec-2025 call at???... and I should really buy back my shorts...
 
Last edited:
JackRab said:
Using a similar view on a bear market means that we will never be in a bear market until we hit something like 50 in S&P.... everything until that would be a pullback? Just semantics IMO.
More...

That's not how it works Einstein. The definitions of bull and bear markets have been well established in Finance since the days of Jesse Livermore. Don't pull stuff out of your ass.
 
http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/10/13/when-did-the-bull-market-begin-irl/

  1. The actual starting point of the current secular bull market is the spring of 2013, when we broke above the double-top record highs of 2000 and 2007. This means we’re only into the third year.
  2. I also would like to asterisk the fall of 2011 because the S&P 500 dropped 21% briefly in the depths of that panic, which would restart the count anyway if you were using 2009. This is semantics but important if we’re serious about dating. A drop into 20%+ drawdown, even if it’s brief, means a bear market and the end of the previous bull, if we’re using the generally accepted 20% (which is also meaningless, but it is what it is).
This is what the secular breakout of 2013 looks like, in relation to the breakaway from the prior two peaks between 2000-2007. By this count, the previous secular bear was 13 years (2000-2013), hence the current bull market is 3, not 7, and has a long way to go before anyone can say that it’s gone too far:

spx-breakout.png

spx-breakout.png[img]
 
Maverick74 said:
That's not how it works Einstein. The definitions of bull and bear markets have been well established in Finance since the days of Jesse Livermore. Don't pull stuff out of your ass.
More...

Right.. 'established'... I'm just saying it's semantics.... it gives writers something to write about.

"Bull markets are characterized by optimism, investor confidence and expectations that strong results should continue"
"A bear market is a condition in which securities prices fall and widespread pessimism causes the stock market's downward spiral to be self-sustaining"
(credits to Investopedia).

You decide whether we check those boxes or not.... and when those boxes were checked. Don't get too hung onto how it's worded that's all.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top