I don't understand this concept of no risk. There is an uptrend but there is variance around that trend. That variance will wreak havoc if one has excess margin. If one is not using margin then one won't make much. Fyi many of the big techs got slaughtered since the election. How is that no risk? Are you suggesting one should trade tiny cash only positions? If you are using margin you took some pretty big haircuts the last month. How the hell does that equate to no risk. Kind of an ignorant argument is it not?
This guy says the bull market is already starting... Where was he since 2009?
- Thread starter S2007S
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I don't understand this concept of no risk. There is an uptrend but there is variance around that trend. That variance will wreak havoc if one has excess margin. If one is not using margin then one won't make much. Fyi many of the big techs got slaughtered since the election. How is that no risk? Are you suggesting one should trade tiny cash only positions? If you are using margin you took some pretty big haircuts the last month. How the hell does that equate to no risk. Kind of an ignorant argument is it not?
Funny how everyone thinks just because the market is back to where it is after all these boom and bust cycles and now finally above these past trends over the last decades that it is now warranted to move higher...
And not one person thinks back to 1929, 1987, 2000, 2007 etc, to the times when markets collapsed and fell hard....they do not believe that this market can collapse because of the euphoria and greed that backs it up and when that kind of thinking arises there is major trouble ahead......
And not one person thinks back to 1929, 1987, 2000, 2007 etc, to the times when markets collapsed and fell hard....they do not believe that this market can collapse because of the euphoria and greed that backs it up and when that kind of thinking arises there is major trouble ahead......
It's not really popping yet, it's more of a slow release fart
. So contained and therefore less risk for fallout into equities... but FED hasn't really raised rates yet, so it might go a bit fasterBig techs...
Days after election techs sold off but they are off their lows and now participating in the Nasdaq rally!
Amazon low $720 today $767
Google low $736 today $776
What are you talking about? The first sign of a downtick everyone panics and talks about the end of the world. You are living on another planet. Here is the issue. This market is now and has been for some time extremely over hedged. The avg person is not even making that much money because they are so deeply hedged with options and inverse ETFs. This is why when we do get small dips they don't panic as much as the media does because they are hedged. When they sell their hedges to the market makers are buying their puts and buying the underlying forcing the market back up. The reality is, the amount of derivatives trading today vs 1929, 1987, 2000 and even 2007 is staggering. Pull up a chart of CBOE and CME. These exchanges are driven by record option volumes.
Yes but you can't call that no risk. You would have taken 30% haircuts in your account on those moves. How is that NO risk? No risk is a CD or cash. Taking a 30% hit for most of us is unacceptable. If I take even a 10% hit in my account I rethink what the hell I'm even doing in this business. If you are a pure gambler and don't care about your money then sure, double down. You do understand your survival rate goes to zero before long if you keep doing that.
It's not really popping yet, it's more of a slow release fart
Fed raising rates next week to .75%
A .25% jump in rates coming next week!!!
Just remember now moving forward that the tide has completely turned and that rising rates are now an extreme positive for markets....just the thought of raising rates will skyrocket the market... The market will be cheering every fed rate hike under president Trump because now all of the sudden rising rates are looked at as positive in the pro business Presidential era!!!!!
Interesting. I'm beginning to believe this rally. Not sure if that's a contrarian indicator or not. hehe
As always, slow and steady makes the difference... what's the prognoses of that .25% increase? 90% chance? So fully priced. Everybody is happy because they will go slowly... When they postpone again, that will cause a drop because of uncertainty in when/how much.
And since when is .25 a jump? I already know what the media will blab about when that increase comes... "50% increase in the interest rate doesn't move the market!"... blahblahblah...