This financial markets bubble is different, is it not?

[comagnum]

The fed/central bank have lost control & sanity. What they are doing is not sustainable - This is a financial crisis of epic proportions that will end very badly.

My views on the macro side of things has nothing to do with my trading. Being prepared for every scenario is a good thing.

This is a really interesting break down on the reports from Ray Dalio

 

[S2007S]

Just to let everyone know the world has never seen these types of market behaviors before, you can totally make believe you have, but you havent.... you cannot go back to any time and compare these markets to anything we have seen in the history of the these markets. I'm not saying that because we are at historical highs I'm saying this because of how structural different this market has become. It's a market that doesn't play by the rules and has nothing but central banks backing up the entire build. The fed claims they dont follow market behav6to justify where they set rates and other monetary factors, but that is entirely false . Maybe decades and decades ago yes, but today, absolutely NOT. The demise of this market will be something unforeseen , maybe there wont be a reason for the inevitable collapse , maybe the law of large numbers will just implode in on itself.........

 

[dozu888]

from now on I'm gonna attach a song to all my posts..

 

[Seaweed]

Probably most of the people in this forum are familiar with famous historical financial bubbles, where the last one, 2007-2009 almost derailed the whole system. Watching the US stocks market performance this year might cause "Vertigo". However, I see a big difference in regards to regular bubbles: This time the creditors' money belongs to the world's central banks who unlike private creditors, can create money. They continue to pump liquidity to the system. There have been a couple of attempts to retire liquidity from the system but the real economies are so weak that they couldn't afford it. So I think govts won't let bubble pop in a hard way, everybody is trapped. Market's cycles are gone, it's been only one way up. The wisest advice would be staying with the trend until it changes really cause many bears have left broke along with this way.

What do you think?

I kind of tend to agree.

As an analogy, if you look back a few hundred years, based on the artwork and paintings of that era, fat chicks seemed to be what most women aspired to look like. They were the "hot" girl of that time. Now, in this new era, its the skinny girl who most guys want to fuck and most girls want to look like.

Somewhere along the way, there was a major paradigm shift. I think that now might almost be the same thing, with regards to economics of course. (luckily fat chicks aren't back in vogue yet)

As @tiddlywinks states, its all about confidence. As long as the FED keeps up their end, this can more than likely go on for a very long time.

 

[S2007S]

I kind of tend to agree.

As an analogy, if you look back a few hundred years, based on the artwork and paintings of that era, fat chicks seemed to be what most women aspired to look like. They were the "hot" girl of that time. Now, in this new era, its the skinny girl who most guys want to fuck and most girls want to look like.

Somewhere along the way, there was a major paradigm shift. I think that now might almost be the same thing, with regards to economics of course. (luckily fat chicks aren't back in vogue yet)

As @tiddlywinks states, its all about confidence. As long as the FED keeps up their end, this can more than likely go on for a very long time.

The fed is the only reason why markets are doing what they are doing, many will disagree but that is the real truth of the matter. Seems absolutely nothing can disrupt this market.....its the land of only gains, eventually that will work against itself, sounds odd but its true.


I mean you can only squeeze so much juice from an orange as nothing this good will last forever.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Now, in this new era, its the skinny girl who most guys want to fuck and most girls want to look like.

Speak for yourself. I like the classic hourglass shape which generally is only found in Italian/black/middle eastern women, though white girls who have bodies that look like they are 12 year old boys with biggish tits have also been in the stable in the past. I am yet unable to explain my attraction to the latter. I do not find 12 year old boys attractive.

Just to let everyone know the world has never seen these types of market behaviors before, you can totally make believe you have, but you havent....

Howcome we have so many investment geniuses here

 

[Nine_Ender]

Probably most of the people in this forum are familiar with famous historical financial bubbles, where the last one, 2007-2009 almost derailed the whole system. Watching the US stocks market performance this year might cause "Vertigo". However, I see a big difference in regards to regular bubbles: This time the creditors' money belongs to the world's central banks who unlike private creditors, can create money. They continue to pump liquidity to the system. There have been a couple of attempts to retire liquidity from the system but the real economies are so weak that they couldn't afford it. So I think govts won't let bubble pop in a hard way, everybody is trapped. Market's cycles are gone, it's been only one way up. The wisest advice would be staying with the trend until it changes really cause many bears have left broke along with this way.

What do you think?

It's not a bubble. There is that difference. If it spikes up and turns into a bubble, you want to be long on that move. As I stated earlier this year, the SPX would only be up 17% since January 2018 if we hit 3200 which is almost a 2 year time period. Never is an annualized gain of around 10% a bubble. Yet many people keep claiming it is. Overall P/E level doesn't support the bubble theory either. US indexes will crater if we get a confirmed move towards a recession in the US. Hasn't happened yet and may not for several years unless Trump goes on some huge trade war. Can't see him doing that in an election year.

 

[themickey]

Speak for yourself. I like the classic hourglass shape which generally is only found in Italian/black/middle eastern women, though white girls who have bodies that look like they are 12 year old boys with biggish tits have also been in the stable in the past. I am yet unable to explain my attraction to the latter. I do not find 12 year old boys attractive......

You'll find ozzy women attractive.

 

[kashirin]

It's not a bubble. There is that difference. If it spikes up and turns into a bubble, you want to be long on that move. As I stated earlier this year, the SPX would only be up 17% since January 2018 if we hit 3200 which is almost a 2 year time period. Never is an annualized gain of around 10% a bubble. Yet many people keep claiming it is. Overall P/E level doesn't support the bubble theory either. US indexes will crater if we get a confirmed move towards a recession in the US. Hasn't happened yet and may not for several years unless Trump goes on some huge trade war. Can't see him doing that in an election year.

Apple almost double in a year with negative earnings.

It's definitely a bubble

 

[kashirin]

I kind of tend to agree.

As an analogy, if you look back a few hundred years, based on the artwork and paintings of that era, fat chicks seemed to be what most women aspired to look like. They were the "hot" girl of that time. Now, in this new era, its the skinny girl who most guys want to fuck and most girls want to look like.

Somewhere along the way, there was a major paradigm shift. I think that now might almost be the same thing, with regards to economics of course. (luckily fat chicks aren't back in vogue yet)

As @tiddlywinks states, its all about confidence. As long as the FED keeps up their end, this can more than likely go on for a very long time.

there will be consequences to money printing. There must be. Even if we don't observe them now they will manifest them at some point and they will become so acute they will stop

Some people are buying 100 yr bonds with negative rates. It feels totally crazy. Double crazy - 100 yr and negative rates. Even nominally they will get probably half in 100 years with inflation they will be lucky to get a cent on a dollar invested.

that can't be sustainable. at least in our world

but it might be a really long time. maybe another 20 years. Maybe it will be so long we will not be alive

in the mean time life is not that bad now. At least I'm richer than 10 year ago