Yes 100%, this year has seen extreme bearish sentiment throughout. The January rally was met with sceptism, and it's been ongoing all year, and it's really only this month that the mood has lightened. So now is maybe the time to be fearful.
This financial markets bubble is different, is it not?
- Thread starter pstrusi
- Start date
...So now is maybe the time to be fearful.
Nah, I am not in a long swing NQ trade, so you are safe to go long all equities.
If all you have is the savings rate and the payday loan industry as your centerpiece, then you are blowing smoke up YOUR OWN ass. Juul is laying off btw.
Here's a FRED chart of the savings rate and recessions...
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=m8Bv
As for Trump removing payday loan protections, think again...
the payday loan rules were not even in effect in February 2019. And it was the CFPB itself, not Trump nor the Trump administration that decided to abandon the Obama-era payday loan stipulations. You linked to articles you didn't bother to read beyond politically propagandized headlines. Besides, why are you not "angry" at the money-center banks who issue and collect fees on EBT cards numbering at least an order of magnitude of the 12 million that do business with a "scumbag shithead payday loan company."?
BUT... there is ALWAYS something in the shadows.
Happy Thanksgiving!
I'll remember next time I shitpost to have a full economic dissertation written up. I sometimes I forget everyone here is a scholar.
It often seems like folks need a lesson in cause and effect.
Big bear markets, recessions, etc. don't happen because God decides it's time and snaps his fingers - they happen for clearly discernible reasons. In 2000 you had tons of worthless stocks, and good stocks priced to yield 2% while T-bonds paid 6%. In 2007 you had a massive edifice of leverage built on a foundation of worthless CDOs, which could not be papered over once defaults rose and coupon payments dried up.
If there's a leveraged debt bomb hiding somewhere today, nobody I'm aware of has clearly pointed out what and where it is. Nowadays, most assets are historically expensive but risk premia are within normal ranges. Those premia are likely to fall over the coming years: the market has expected risk-free rates to "normalize" at some point, but 2019 changed the game as the Fed put became explicit. Dozu's predictions could well come to pass, as the market starts to price out risks which, thanks to the Fed, aren't really there.
Happy Thanksgiving all!
Big bear markets, recessions, etc. don't happen because God decides it's time and snaps his fingers - they happen for clearly discernible reasons. In 2000 you had tons of worthless stocks, and good stocks priced to yield 2% while T-bonds paid 6%. In 2007 you had a massive edifice of leverage built on a foundation of worthless CDOs, which could not be papered over once defaults rose and coupon payments dried up.
If there's a leveraged debt bomb hiding somewhere today, nobody I'm aware of has clearly pointed out what and where it is. Nowadays, most assets are historically expensive but risk premia are within normal ranges. Those premia are likely to fall over the coming years: the market has expected risk-free rates to "normalize" at some point, but 2019 changed the game as the Fed put became explicit. Dozu's predictions could well come to pass, as the market starts to price out risks which, thanks to the Fed, aren't really there.
Happy Thanksgiving all!
The Chinese are buying up tons of residential and commercial real estates in Southern California.
If you truly believe this scenario, as a trader, how would you trade this? In The Big Short, they shorted the hell out of subprime mortgage. What are you shorting?
I am not giving you a hard time, just want some ideas on what I should do if I agree with your assessment.
Here too.
Don't really know to be honest. An obvious choice would be to short SLABS but who knows how you'd do that. The problem is systemic. I don't think there's a great choice for us guys in the wings. I would make a prop bet on SLABS going toxic in the next decade. It's almost unavoidable without intervention.
I wish I had an answer for you. There is so much to unpack here any sort of guess would just be pissing into the wind for lack of a better analogy. You could short banks, but when? You could long bonds, but when? You could short SLABS but who even has access to that market? Is shorting homebuilders next year going to prove profitable? It's hard to say. I'll readily admit I'm not read up on the market responses to these things. I came of age in the last crisis. I haven't lived any other ones (I was 10 or so during the dot-com crash). I wish I could give better advice. Give me a few months and maybe I'll be better read up. This crisis is very interesting to me in terms of it being historically unprecedented. The upcoming retirement of the boomers will present interesting financial risk. I am very curious how the market will respond to (probably the largest) draws on retirements and pensions in history. If it keeps going up I'd probably be thinking about getting out completely. At that point, external forces diametrically opposed to the market are in control.
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