They Work in Crypto, ...

[NoahA]

How do they come up with that data?
In order to have buy someone has to sell.

You would think with that kind of buying pressure the price would be increasing. Seem range bound at this time which I take to mean that there is a supply out there that will meet the demand.

I just don't believe any type of metrics used for buying and selling. Its just like gold prices... there is one price, but that doesn't really reflect the price to buy physical gold since its suppressed by all the paper gold.

When you buy bitcoin on an exchange, it isn't really yours until you transfer it out. Its just like an airline, they oversell tickets knowing some people won't show up. When they do, shit, now the airline has to beg someone to give up their ticket. This is why people want everyone to withdraw their coins on exchanges as we can quickly see who is swimming naked.

Furthermore, all the metrics about how much bitcoin is on exchanges is just crap. Most of that bitcoin is in someone's account. The narrative they keep pushing is that this is liquid supply, but what if none of those people want to sell. Maybe they just don't own a hardware wallet so have to leave it on an exchange. Do you see the chaos that the banking system is going through because people are withdrawing all their money? The banks will literally collapse when another few hundred billion get withdrawn.

Right now, 900 bitcoins are mined every day. If a miner was to sell each one, at a price of $27k, this means there is $24 million of fresh supply. But we know miners don't really sell, so we can't use this as a number really.

My own personal theory is that nobody knows the price of bitcoin until major shit happens. At some point in the future when all the paper bitcoin and derivates are a thing of the past, we will truly see the supply and demand in play. We will have a market where someone wants to sell bitcoin in order to eat, so the grocery store takes it, and that store will use it to pay wages and suppliers. So a circular bitcoin economy.

 

[NoahA]

That was my point about being paid in BTC. The salary is set in fiat and converted to BTC when paid. BTC neeeds fiat to be worth anything.

Aye. This goes along with my earlier post. The only reason we need fiat is because the world doesn't yet know how to price bitcoin, but it very quickly will. Imagine you going to the store one day and asking "how many sats for this TV"....

People already do conversions in their head very easily between dollars and their native currency. Soon people will do this easily between their USD and bitcoin. Then the USD will be like the native currency that foreigners don't want to hold. The price will be in USD, but you will figure out how many sats you need to sell in order to buy it.

We are now going through a moment where the interest rate is so high that of course people want to save in USD. 5% yield risk free! But since this leads to a death spiral, that 5% will be shit. At that point, you realize you need to hold your wealth in something better than USD.

I remember Lynn Alden made an amazing point. The reason why everyone is obsessed with yield is because we operate with fiat that is always inflating to nothing. So you need the yield to counteract this, and hence everyone chases yield. But if you're saving in bitcoin, that is going to infinity, you don't need any yield.

There is no time to argue deaddog. The only way to stop this trainwreck right now is to drop rates. Every month more debt has to be refinanced at higher rates. As you know for us Canadians, the mortgage renewals are killing Canada. But the US debt suffers from this as well, and same thing for corporations. At the rates now, every month there is more and more carnage. Printing up money to pay interest is accelerating the spiral. But its obvious that with a deficit of already almost 2 trillion this year, the US cannot stop printing. So they will have to drop rates. This of course makes inflation even worse and likely causes a depression, but the spiral of high rates is just as bad.

But honestly, it doesn't matter what they do. The end is like literally here. If the rates stay where they are, its the end. If they drop rates, its the end. I predict you will be buying bitcoin or the ETF very soon.

 

[semperfrosty]

You never replied to the question of if you'd like to be paid in bitcoin. Either a yearly salary or and hourly wage. You know like 3 BTC per year or so many sats an hour.

I see this one posed quite often as sort of a trick question or a test of someone's belief.

To me it's not a difficult scenario.

Most would live off 80%(or more)of their income.So as the money comes in,just as quickly does it go out(direct deposit,recurring payments,etc.)

Even with BTC being seen as a volatile product,as a weekly or monthly payment,it is worth to the recipient what it is worth to the payer until it is held longer term.

Now with the remaining 20% which may be for savings or investments or whatever,and held longer term,you need to determine where it gets the best growth and assign it as such.That may be a percentage left in BTC/more volatile investments or a sleepy savings account for safety.

I see no difference in fiat or BTC for regular payments.

If you signed a contract for 10 BTC for a years work with payment to be made at end of said year some more thought would need to be applied.

 

[NoahA]

I do think though that there is a chance for bitcoin to still come down in price. When a depression hits, people won't be buying bitcoin initially, and as we see in every crash, people sell anything just for liquidity. But it will very quickly start an enormous rally once people see they need to buy something outside of the system.

Maybe it won't even crash this time as people start selling property and putting it into bitcoin. Imagine the buying pressure of someone selling a 1 million dollar property and converting this into 20-40 bitcoins. There is too little bitcoin once the 99% figure it out.

 

[destriero]

Aye. This goes along with my earlier post. The only reason we need fiat is because the world doesn't yet know how to price bitcoin, but it very quickly will.

You're writing like you're playing TF2 and pricing skins with earbuds. You come off as a 17yo playing FPS.

At POS it becomes a currency transaction. Nobody needs to price USD when shopping in the US. Tell me how long it takes to verify a 0.0000001 BTC transaction. The idea that I can Venmo fiat in three seconds. You could use WU faster and with zero variance.

The "latency" inherent with chain-verification is that POS builds tons of BTC inventory before you FIFO, regardless of knowing the price of each POS transaction. The only answer is elimination of fiat worldwide and it's not going to be something with a 100% annualized vol-figure. It will be a stable.

 

[semperfrosty]

Sure, this all sounds good as a way to handle all the backend work, but the question remains about what you negotiate as a salary. If the salary is $100k USD per year, congratulations, you are losing 5% every year to inflation but its consistent and predictable! If the salary is 4 bitcoin, now you take the risk on this going up and down big time.

So the question remains, is there really a contract out there for 1 year, and even longer perhaps, where you agree to a set bitcoin amount? If you signed at 60k, the past two years have been bad for you, but if you sign today, you might end up doing very well going forward. I just don't see how anyone, both worker and employer, would make this deal, so I figure everyone who says they get paid in bitcoin is simply just receiving bitcoin after it was purchased that day, but your contract uses a USD figure as a yearly salary.

I just posted a similar sentiment however if the payments are regular across said year it is different.

1 BTC is 1 BTC to payer and receiver and is at the same value again as it is spent on regular outgoings.

 

[deaddog]

Aye. This goes along with my earlier post. The only reason we need fiat is because the world doesn't yet know how to price bitcoin, but it very quickly will. Imagine you going to the store one day and asking "how many sats for this TV"....

Jeez and you give me a bad time because I don't know how to value BTC.

When we get to the point where I see merchandise priced in BTC I will become a believer.
I know you can pay for merchandise with BTC but it's priced in fiat and converted at the going rate.

 

[deaddog]

I do think though that there is a chance for bitcoin to still come down in price. When a depression hits, people won't be buying bitcoin initially, and as we see in every crash, people sell anything just for liquidity. But it will very quickly start an enormous rally once people see they need to buy something outside of the system.

Maybe it won't even crash this time as people start selling property and putting it into bitcoin. Imagine the buying pressure of someone selling a 1 million dollar property and converting this into 20-40 bitcoins. There is too little bitcoin once the 99% figure it out.

My opinion is that as rates rise or inflation runs rampant,there is little money left to the consumer to purchase any assets. I believe your right that we're in trouble no matter what. I have trouble envisioning a new type of asset pulling us out of that trouble.
Something not controlled by government will be controlled by somebody. With a limited supply of BTC the opportunity for manipulation is certainly there.

 

[NoahA]

You're writing like you're playing TF2 and pricing skins with earbuds. You come off as a 17yo playing FPS.

At POS it becomes a currency transaction. Nobody needs to price USD when shopping in the US. Tell me how long it takes to verify a 0.0000001 BTC transaction. The idea that I can Venmo fiat in three seconds. You could use WU faster and with zero variance.

The "latency" inherent with chain-verification is that POS builds tons of BTC inventory before you FIFO, regardless of knowing the price of each POS transaction. The only answer is elimination of fiat worldwide and it's not going to be something with a 100% annualized vol-figure. It will be a stable.

I understand that as a method of exchange, on-chain bitcoin transactions aren't ideal. I see the future as the base layer settling high value transactions and everyone else goes to some L2.

Fiat will of course always exist, but when you understand that this system is based on debt, and the debt needs to keep growing, which means money supply needs to keep increasing so you can pay the debt, it becomes obvious that holding any fiat is just dumb. In many countries, they know how bad fiat is, and the USD will be the last to fall.

If you think about, its not even the dollar that has been a store of value but real estate and other tangible assets. These are of course risky in their own right, and so what is left as a store of value? I do believe bitcoin will take the lion's share. Shit, the Chinese real estate market is even bigger than the US equity market. Imagine when that implodes.... The smart will get into bitcoin before its too late.

I don't understand half of your reply though since I am just a 17yo playing FPS.

 

[johnarb]

So the question remains, is there really a contract out there for 1 year, and even longer perhaps, where you agree to a set bitcoin amount? If you signed at 60k, the past two years have been bad for you, but if you sign today, you might end up doing very well going forward. I just don't see how anyone, both worker and employer, would make this deal, so I figure everyone who says they get paid in bitcoin is simply just receiving bitcoin after it was purchased that day, but your contract uses a USD figure as a yearly salary.

The question really is who is forward (future) long btc or short btc. Using Bitwage, neither the employer nor the employee has a future btc directional position. Conversion from fiat to btc on payday

For example, if I'm the employer and I agreed to pay you $108k but you want to get paid 4 bitcoins, then either I purchase 4 Btc's now and slowly pay you over the course of the year, or I take a directional short position on 4 bitcoins for a year

What if you quit in 1 month? or I fire you in 3 months?

The latter is interesting, because if bitcoin goes to $500k in 6 months (after Blackrock etf), I'll fire your ass for sure, keep the 2 bitcoins I have in my wallet, or if I did not purchase them yet, there is no way I'm paying you $1M for the last 6 months

If you were a star employee (or athlete), then maybe someone would go the extra effort to pay you in bitcoins

https://frontofficesports.com/crypto-crash-costing-nfl-players-millions/