These statements about transitory inflation are bs, it is INFLATION!

El OchoCinco said:
The one thing I can predict with certainty given it is a major election year...

GOP will claim we are in a recession and the Dems caused it and only highlight data to support their point
Dems will claim the economy is as strong as ever and only highlight data to support their point

The economy is a political weapon so niether side will label it clearly or consider all the data....

going to be fun.
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Yeh. Mostly- but it is tad more complicated with the Biden problem that the dems have.

The dems know that it is to their benefit to support all things dem, duh. But they don't like this bit about Biden acting like he is not getting the message and still acting like he is running again until he does get the message.

Some of the dems are more and more dealing with the economy issue by refusing to join in with Biden Economic Happy Hour messages from DC. The Progressives flat out trash him and his economic messaging, and the traditional dems running are distancing themselves from Biden by clinging to kitchen table economics rather than Beltway Happy Hour messages. Either way, dems seem to share the same goal as the republicans - ie. make sure Biden does not get the credit for any good news because he needs to be moved along.

It is kind of nasty out there for dems right now. Quite a few of them are starting to play the Hunter and Joe business dealings card to bring Joe down a notch or two just to get him to not run again. Frigging lefty cable networks have suddenly discovered the laptop. Helloooooo. Washington Post starting to sound like the NY Post. Funny dat.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
Yeh. Mostly- but it is tad more complicated with the Biden problem that the dems have.

The dems know that it is to their benefit to support all things dem, duh. But they don't like this bit about Biden acting like he is not getting the message and still acting like he is running again until he does get the message.

Some of the dems are more and more dealing with the economy issue by refusing to join in with Biden Economic Happy Hour messages from DC. The Progressives flat out trash him and his economic messaging, and the traditional dems running are distancing themselves from Biden by clinging to kitchen table economics rather than Beltway Happy Hour messages. Either way, dems seem to share the same goal as the republicans - ie. make sure Biden does not get the credit for any good news because he needs to be moved along.

It is kind of nasty out there for dems right now. Quite a few of them are starting to play the Hunter and Joe business dealings card to bring Joe down a notch or two just to get him to not run again. Frigging lefty cable networks have suddenly discovered the laptop. Helloooooo. Washington Post starting to sound like the NY Post. Funny dat.
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From a political messaging standpoint Biden is making a big mistake here messaging “we are not in a recession.” Even if you don’t think we are, and there is a good debate to be had here especially is stagflation really another name or type of recession, a lot of people do feel like it is a recession.

It reminds me of Reagan saying a recession is when your brother in law loses his job and a depression is when you lose your job. People have endured paying an extra $400 plus a month for like 6 months now. The working class is squeezed and it sure feels like a recession in many homes with people working.

The point is even if Biden can point to some traditional technical points to fight the narrative of recession, it doesn’t help his cause.

This guy gets it:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1552701938696949761
 
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UsualName said:
From a political messaging standpoint Biden is making a big mistake here messaging “we are not in a recession.” Even if you don’t think we are, and there is a good debate to be had here especially is stagflation really another name or type of recession, a lot of people do feel like it is a recession.

It reminds me of Reagan saying a recession is when your brother in law loses his job and a depression is when you lose your job. People have endured paying an extra $400 plus a month for like 6 months now. The working class is squeezed and it sure feels like a recession in many homes with people working.

The point is even if Biden can point to some traditional technical points to fight the narrative of recession, it doesn’t help his cause.
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Biden's handlers will get him to revise his messaging which will be something like: "We are not in a recession, but if do go into one it is the Putin Recession. WOMP!

Amazing how Biden spent years shoulder to shoulder with the greatest campaigner in American history, regardless of whether he was on your team or not- Bubba "I Feel Your Pain" Clinton- and did not learn a damn thing.
 
UsualName said:
There’s zero doubt the economy is slowing and going negative but what Powell is saying is there’s still a pulse in the labor market so we may stagger a few steps before we completely collapse, not to mention he is stabbing the economy in the back with large rate hikes as it is staggering. I disagree.

Consumers have moved to credit cards to keep up with prices, homes sales have dropped and people can’t afford basics on cash in cash out right now. The tech industry is laying off and banks have slowed hiring. We are at the beginning. Will it get worse? Probably. Inflation has taken its toll and the Fed decided “leeching” the economy for the sake of inflation was the appropriate course. If this isn’t recession we are in right now then normal sucks. But if you want to wait to call it a recession until you feel and see it that’s ok too but it’s here and been here for a couple of months now.

This is the release and it reads poorly, especially after Walmart’s release and outlook:

https://www.bea.gov/news/blog/2022-07-28/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2022
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Personal savings rate of Americans collapsed in July. The consumer is not in a position to soft land this recession.

CFB5A351-7E56-4AB4-B934-3EE903377555.jpeg
 
I'm more in the camp it's not a recession...yet. Labor is just too strong. I also think people today have a lot more resources to keep spending with easier credit, BNPL, etc...
If the inflation and employment #'s stay high the next 4-6 weeks, would Powell do a rate hike before the next meeting? That would sure send a signal. 3rd qtr GDP gets reported in Oct and we all know that can be a volatile month.
I see a lot of parallels with summer/fall 1994.

Traders are talking about chance of between-meetings rate hike by Fed in August, if inflation fails to ease
 
If you change the definition of terms used to evaluate what a recession is, then you can’t accurately evaluate when or if a recession has actually happened. Gee, leftists in full denial of reality. Say it ain't so. 1984 gaslighting at its finest. Well done.
 
Mercor said:
Uh-Oh Joe....What happen to the jobs

Fridays job report
View attachment 290851
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“Hiring in July was far better than expected, defying signs that the economic recovery is losing steam,” CNBC reports.

“Nonfarm payrolls rose 528,000 for the month and the unemployment rate was 3.5%, easily topping the Dow Jones estimates of 258,000 and 3.6% respectively.”

Wage growth also surged higher, as average earning earnings jumped 0.5% for the month and 5.2% from the same time a year ago.
 
This is the wrong take below by Elerian. We are on 4 rate hikes now with 2 being excessive but the jobs market is still moving while growth is receding. 1. The jobs report reflects a shortage of labor, even in recessionary time and 2. The rate hikes are not impacting inflation because inflation is fundamentally a two factor supply problem.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1555581377059459077
 
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