These statements about transitory inflation are bs, it is INFLATION!

Already starting to get whiffs of some logsitics issues creeping into the system in July.... freights are lower than the FEB/MAR highs thankfully but sideways for May and June. Europe is starting to back up a bit and space from issue is available but getting tighter.

The question is this year prices of the products are much higher than they were from NOV - JAN when we had the last big logistics breakdown so could demand slow a bit to ease the strain. Fed might go another .75 at next meeting and then we have to see if it creeps heavily into consumer sentiment by Oct/Nov. Right now the picture is 100% unknown. Energy prices have not stopped and food prices still pretty strong. This is the main component of CPI so if June numbers are 7% or higher we might start to see some real concern.

If GOP wins one of the chambers running on inflation on the economy then that win could bolster consumer sentiment even though we know the GOP cannot physically do anything to change inflation but that matters little to the voters. Sentiment is king.

Q3 will be key for inflation and growth.

I am still short the Mex Peso which has dropped quite a bit v. the dollar (from 19.40 now up to 20.40ish...looking for 21). I closed out all oil stocks and will get back in after the oil crash :). Banks and real estate for inflation hedges. My crypto is fun money so I will just leave it though with little expectations. AMZN is my long term buy and hold at these price levels.

We know a market correction is coming, I just dont know how long we will stay corrected.
 
El OchoCinco said:
Already starting to get whiffs of some logsitics issues creeping into the system in July.... freights are lower than the FEB/MAR highs thankfully but sideways for May and June. Europe is starting to back up a bit and space from issue is available but getting tighter.

The question is this year prices of the products are much higher than they were from NOV - JAN when we had the last big logistics breakdown so could demand slow a bit to ease the strain. Fed might go another .75 at next meeting and then we have to see if it creeps heavily into consumer sentiment by Oct/Nov. Right now the picture is 100% unknown. Energy prices have not stopped and food prices still pretty strong. This is the main component of CPI so if June numbers are 7% or higher we might start to see some real concern.

If GOP wins one of the chambers running on inflation on the economy then that win could bolster consumer sentiment even though we know the GOP cannot physically do anything to change inflation but that matters little to the voters. Sentiment is king.

Q3 will be key for inflation and growth.

I am still short the Mex Peso which has dropped quite a bit v. the dollar (from 19.40 now up to 20.40ish...looking for 21). I closed out all oil stocks and will get back in after the oil crash :). Banks and real estate for inflation hedges. My crypto is fun money so I will just leave it though with little expectations. AMZN is my long term buy and hold at these price levels.

We know a market correction is coming, I just dont know how long we will stay corrected.
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Im thinking about grabbing a ton of Microsoft for the long hold but I think there is going to be another leg down before all of this settles.

It’s a tough time to pull the trigger because I do expect a recession and I am just not sure the government has the wherewithal to take emergency measures to counteract it because of the narrative that spending has created inflation. If we get into a nasty recession and the government doesn’t act then we are in for a nasty long haul of high unemployment and low growth.
 
El OchoCinco said:
Already starting to get whiffs of some logsitics issues creeping into the system in July.... freights are lower than the FEB/MAR highs thankfully but sideways for May and June. Europe is starting to back up a bit and space from issue is available but getting tighter.

The question is this year prices of the products are much higher than they were from NOV - JAN when we had the last big logistics breakdown so could demand slow a bit to ease the strain. Fed might go another .75 at next meeting and then we have to see if it creeps heavily into consumer sentiment by Oct/Nov. Right now the picture is 100% unknown. Energy prices have not stopped and food prices still pretty strong. This is the main component of CPI so if June numbers are 7% or higher we might start to see some real concern.

If GOP wins one of the chambers running on inflation on the economy then that win could bolster consumer sentiment even though we know the GOP cannot physically do anything to change inflation but that matters little to the voters. Sentiment is king.

Q3 will be key for inflation and growth.

I am still short the Mex Peso which has dropped quite a bit v. the dollar (from 19.40 now up to 20.40ish...looking for 21). I closed out all oil stocks and will get back in after the oil crash :). Banks and real estate for inflation hedges. My crypto is fun money so I will just leave it though with little expectations. AMZN is my long term buy and hold at these price levels.

We know a market correction is coming, I just dont know how long we will stay corrected.
More...

You're talking about LTL/FTL or dry van, right? Because I can see that spot is lower than contract, which will kill smaller carriers.
 
This will work out well for the Democrats.

Poll: Majority Of Americans Think Biden Is Intentionally Sending Gas Prices Sky High To Fuel Green Agenda

https://twitter.com/x/status/1536348121319497734

A Trafalgar Group poll found that 53% of Americans believe the president is intentionally allowing prices to rise in order to make people rely on clean energy, according to the poll. Another 39% countered saying he is not doing so. Over half of Independent voters, 56%, agreed soaring gas prices are the president’s intention, while 37% disagreed.

Nearly one-quarter of Democrats, 24%, believe the president is intentionally allowing prices at the pump to rise, while 68% do not believe he is having any impact. The vast majority of Republicans, 77%, believe the administration wants gas prices to soar, while 12% disagree.

The poll surveyed 1,091 adults between May 25-29 with a 2.9% margin of error.​
 
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Tsing Tao said:
You're talking about LTL/FTL or dry van, right? Because I can see that spot is lower than contract, which will kill smaller carriers.
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That is trucking rates, I am referring to ocean going freight rates and container backlogs which will spill over to trucking. Right now I have not noticed any issues with trucking to be honest but that is the secondary shoe to drop. The main issue with trucking now is just fuel surcharges since gas is so high and a 2-day trip might require 2 gas fillings (worse if diesel).
 
El OchoCinco said:
That is trucking rates, I am referring to ocean going freight rates and container backlogs which will spill over to trucking. Right now I have not noticed any issues with trucking to be honest but that is the secondary shoe to drop. The main issue with trucking now is just fuel surcharges since gas is so high and a 2-day trip might require 2 gas fillings (worse if diesel).
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Dry van spot has been below contract for several weeks now, and the trucking bloodbath is just getting started.
 
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