I swear, it wouldn't surprise me. Nothing does with this operation.
These statements about transitory inflation are bs, it is INFLATION!
- Thread starter wildchild
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In fact, its a good bet that if something can fuck up the whole ball of wax, the administration will probably opt to do it.
if any of you have studied econometrics (not bragging but I have) then you will find interesting the science of polls with suggestive questioning. This occurs when a question does not ask for a respondent's belief/opinion on why something is happening but rather asks them to reply to the truth of a suggestive question. In law you would call it leading the witness. In polls I call it something like suggestive bias for predetermined results.
For example, the question in the poll was:
Do you believe the Biden Administration is intentionally letting gas prices rise to make Americans use less fossil fuels?
Notice how the question suggests the causation upfront which leads to the respondent now assuming a possible cause that they might not have otherwise considered. It basically creates a skewed result by either suggesting a plausible possibility with no factual basis in order to suggest a result, OR it creates a hypothetical so ridiculous to get results skewed (this question is the former).
This is why I find polls so laughable is that they poll people on hypothetical suggestions to get a results leaning towards their bias.
For example, look at the following questions and imagine asking the same 1000 people... you are going to get different answers and different results..... simply econometrics and polling.:
Is Trump mostly responsible for the insurrection on January 6th?
Who is responsible for the insurrection on January 6th
What group of people is responsible for the events of January 6th
Did the Proud Boys engage in a coup on Janaury 6th?
SECOND,
A poll of 1091 adults......what type... what region....what political background...what age groups.... in other words, a ridiculously small and unrepresentative sample.
THIRD.... a 2.9% margin of error. Sorry but again as someone who studied econometrics, a margin of error or confidence interval is established based on a finite set of data points and then extrapolating or use of regression and using statistics to determine such confidence interval and range of date.
THERE IS NO WAY TO CREATE A MARGIN OF ERROR on an OPINION question that is open ended.
Seriously.....the "science" of econometrics should be appaled for supporting such kind of polling and considering it data worthy of a headline.
Isn't the preference of voting on someone based entirely on opinions and perceptions? Or are you suggesting people only vote on empirical evidence?
Please note my question wording in a way to influence you.
means the polls are bullshit and I pointed out how question wording is done to lead to a desired result.
The questions were not about voting, just about leading into a desired answer.
If I asked 1000 people "What do you think is the cause is for rising gas prices" you will get a different answer set than if you ask "Do you think the Biden Administration is the cause for rising gas prices"
Gas prices are not set by the white house so it is a funny question. Also there has been no evidence that the adminsitration is taking a green stance which requires higher gas prices. You introduce the bias against green energy and the adminsitration into a question to make a suggestive poll question. Happens all the time.
Like in my example, if I asked "Did trump's inactivity during the January 6th insurrection happen because of his desire to overturn the election"
This is a classic loaded question for the goal of a specific outcome in a poll. You mention "trump's in activity" "insurrection" "overturn the election". As we say the question presupposed the desired answer outcome.
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Going to pull this over here @gwb-trading
I have mentioned my “over the horizon” concerns are the housing market. It’s nice to others see this has the longer term issue.
I have mentioned my “over the horizon” concerns are the housing market. It’s nice to others see this has the longer term issue.
so you think that people will vote diametrically opposed to how they would answer one of these polls?
I dont see the polls asking about voting, it just asked the question it asked. There are plenty of GOP who dont like trump and plenty of Dems who dont like Biden.
500 people who claimed to be of a party do not necessarily make for a representative sample of either party.
There is no foundation for the question but it does provide a suggestive answer.
The question asked people if they feel Biden is intentioanlly let gas prices run higher to support green policies. That is a pretty loaded question like the other examples I posted. I would love to hear how idiots on both sides claim Biden controls gas prices but that goes beond the intelligence of the elctorate.
Now you can ask "Do you blame the Democrats for inflation" I sure the results will be down party lines but that still is as poll looking for results.
Then from them to claim they have a 95% confidence interval on answers to that question? How do you claim 95% confidence interval on an opinion question? That sounds ridiculous if you know statistics.
Also the response rate was 1.45% for this poll.... that is abysmal.that means 98.55% of the people who were polled did not want to bother answering. So you are left with the people who wanted to answer on gas prices/biden/fossil fuels.
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