The Wallace Trading Method

amended CL cfd profit ~ $20.54

'may you trade financial instruments full of price spikes and swings'

for Thursday May 23/13 ~ 2:29pm pst

Claims: up a bit more ?

no changes, except praying harder for the price of silver to fall, although maybe I'd
better write an update

the EU, French and Germans are going to be Flashing from 3-4am est. think both
German PMI and the EU's numbers will be smaller than the forecasts
Currencies: all have closed thru their respective fibo levels so I expect their trends
to continue
the euro stopped on various lines, but the Weekly's gone very soft and I expect it to
close the week down. Friday has the final q/q German gdp, should be 0.1% , but . . .
there's a line at 1.2814 but the 'watch-out !' is around 1.2795 since there's D and W
mls that broken thru means a Lot of downside. upside, 1.2875 ?

GC: gold's completed the reversal bounce retracement and on the way down again
SI: as above - phew !

CL: crude hit but didn't penetrate the various resistance levels, and declined. I'll say
the first downside break would be 93.89 , and then around 91.90 if it's to go lower
but it could bounce up again from the higher level, or if it goes that low, the lower, so
the Sell was from the resistance top
NG: is on its way up again, it's been a Buy, see if it breaks and closes above 4.43

ES NQ YM : can't believe it ! I look away for a minute and they all start dropping
will stay with the Buys since I consider the up trend's still my friend, except today
a set-up for tomorrow ?
 
early close for Memorial Day ? happy holiday

closed the SI trade and dropped it from the portfolio, will continue with gold trading

for Friday May 24/13 ~ 3:25pm pst

there may be more downside again tomorrow but overall I believe the trends remain
the same for currencies and indexes

the euro specifically looks as tho it's completed a reversal formation, and if so
should then begin to decline

CL could continue to rally since both the low and close are similar to those of last
week's. the price could also decline again and make a close around the 92 area
then begin a rally next week
NG still a Buy
 
thought the markets were closed, don't seem to have missed much

Return On Investment to the Friday Close May 24/13
. . . . . . . . . profit/loss . . . margin . . . . . ROI
1 audusd . . $134.67 . . . . $325.57 . . . .41.36 % . . . 10 days
2 eurusd . . .$114.70 . . . . $428.70 . . . .26.75 % . . . 3 weeks
3 gbpusd . . $46.67 . . . . . $508.22 . . . . 9.18 % . . . .10 days
4 nzdusd . . $111.00 . . . . $270.31 . . . .41.06 % . . . 10 days
5 usdcad . . $84.79 . . . . . $340.47 . . . .24.93 % . . . 10 days
6 usdchf . - ($27.74) . . . . $322.13 . . . . . . . . . . . . .10 days
7 usdjpy . . .$136.11 . . . . $340.94 . . . .39.92 % . . . 10 days
6 pairs . . . .$627.94 . . . . $2,214.21 . . 28.35 % . . . .3 weeks
7 pairs . . . .$600.24 . . . . $2,536.34 . . 23.66 % . . . .3 weeks
gold . . . . . . $936.70 . . . $3,251.00 . . 28.81 % . . . . 4 weeks
7 fx + gold .$1,536.94 . . .$5,787.34 . . 26.55 % . . . . 4 weeks
3 index . .- ($1390.68) . . $8,800.00 . . doomed ? . . . 5 days

for Tuesday May 28/13 ~ 3:20pm pst

Currencies: s t a r t i n g to get back into their trends
Gold: a bit concerned if the formation is still a correction or if the price'll break 1488
a Buy at the Low is still on
CL: too tight an up and down variation for me to trade, temporarily can go either way
NG: need to see it break 4.44 for more upside, but stll a Buy
Indexes: Dow appears to have the bit between its teeth, needs to close above 1535
to see if it runs, then the others with it
 

Attachments

for Tuesday May 28/13 ~ 8:53am pst

closed ES NQ YM
4H formation looks like a reversal or at least may continue to decline as a correction
no Sells entered
 
will be dropping the CL, NG, ES and NQ from the portfolio, but will from time to time
update the CL and NG
basically the ES and NQ follow the YM so a YM update applies to the ES and NQ

for Wednesday May 29/13 ~ 2:49pm pst

Currencies: Sell on
Gold: looking like the Sell's resuming
CL: probably down again
NG: well, , , it could go back up again, but . . .
Indexes: if a correction, could see the prices drop to last Thursday's low, but a smaller
drop's also possible, maybe lasts until Friday ?
 
the euro rally was a big surprise to me, I was thinking down overnight, and the much
larger than expected increase in German claims didn't seem to matter; Sell set-up ?

for Thursday May 30/13 ~ 3:35pm pst

Currencies: maintaining current positions, only one I feel threatened about is the euro
aud: at the breakdown area, will it break ?
eur: ??? 4H formation looks like an H&S about to start down; and it also looks like
it's completed the correction prior to a new leg up and break thru of the chasm line
a re-test of the highs ?
gbp: looks like it formed a base 4H, longer tfs it's still at the breakdown area
nzd: looks like it's rolled over and heading down; in breakdown area
cad: in break up area
chf: in break up area
jpy: I'd expected the jpy to be at 105 by now, also in breakup area

Gold: maintaining position but watching it and could close it if it breaks 1414

Indexes: looks like one more leg down, previous lows area ? US market for bottom ?
 
all trades closed, ROI to Thursday Close May 30/13
. . . . . . . . . profit/loss . . . margin . . . . . ROI
1 audusd . . $199.50 . . . .$325.57 . . . . 61.27 % . . . . 15 days
2 eurusd . . .$148.60 . . . .$428.70 . . . . 34.66 % . . . . 4 weeks
3 gbpusd . . $67.00 . . . . $508.22 . . . . 13.18 % . . . . 15 days
4 nzdusd . . $90.80 . . . . $270.31 . . . . .33.59 % . . . .15 days
5 usdcad . . $156.34 . . . $340.47 . . . . .45.91 % . . . .15 days
6 usdchf . - ($31.51) . . . $322.13 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 days
7 usdjpy . . .$188.48 . . . .$340.94 . . . . 55.28 % . . . 15 days
6 pairs . . . .$850.72 . . . .$2,214.21 . . .38.42 % . . . . 5 weeks
7 pairs . . . .$819.21 . . . $2,536.34 . . . 32.29 % . . . . 5 weeks
gold . . . . . .$770.33 . . . $3,251.00 . . . 23.69 % . . . .5 weeks
7 fx + gold .$1,589.54 . . $5,787.34 . . . 27.46 % . . . . 5 weeks
ym index . . $771.88 . . . $2,750.00 . . . 28.06 % . . . . 9 days
ALL . . . . . .$2,361.42 . . $8,537.34 . . . 27.65 % . . . .5 weeks
the roi shows a profit, but it doesn't show how terrible my trade management was
during the period, nor how much potential profit was missed
another matter is if it's worth trading the gold and index futures given how much
margin's required to do so:
gold + ym margin v 7 fx pairs margin: $6001 v $2536 ~ profit: $1544 v $819
and then there's trading a full lot or futures contract where the margin amount is in
between the two:
audusd $3255 ~ 6E $3300 and profits $1995 ~ $1486 and not much more to trade
2 lots or futures contracts
mind you, when you live where you can get 500:1 leverage on fx pairs . . .

for Friday May 31/13 ~ 4:00pm pst

Currencies: one thing I overlooked yesterday was that 'break down - up' areas are
also 'support - resistance' areas; realizing that later yesterday evening resulted in
me closing all the trades last night
something else is what looks like an H&S in both the 4H and D DX charts. whether
this is a signal for a trend change will have to wait till my next update
aud: bounced off a fibo, holding support and rising
eur: certainly looks like it'll get thru the chasm line, and then how high ?
gbp: have to say it's based around a fibo - support, so your Buy's still on
nzd: similar to gbp
cad: moving between 2 fibo levels but still looks like a bull formation
chf: well, it's heading down
jpy: support ? around 99.722
gold: retraced 50% of its last decline, could stop here, could also continue to rise
back up to the 1487 area, then a possibility of the April-May formation being a
correction indicative of more downside
ym: another great entry, Sell YM 15276 , got carried away with closing all the trades
just to try and even things up - 'famous last $s' - Sell 2 ES 1656.50
 
may trade cl, ng as and when; trading the ES - higher volume and lower day margin
any additional trades entered will be posted in the next update

for Monday June 3/13 ~ 2:44pm pst

lots of price moving announcements thru the week culminating in the NFP on Friday

Currencies: the H&Ss I referred to on the DX disappear in the M, and the larger tf
and its formation appears as a retracement top; this means the $ will decline, could
go as low as 79 , but might stop at 80 . this would of course be a Large decline and
take several months to complete - September-October
IF this scenario is correct, it would then become the completion of a correction that
would see the next large $ rally and breakout above the 90 level
but a large change in the direction of the other currencies, IF, my analysis is correct

aud: Buy 0.96186
eur: some downside, then a Buy
gbp: Buy 1.52030
nzd: Buy 079736
cad: still looking like it'll break previous highs, Buy
chf: downside, Sell
jpy: did the yen top ? reversal formation on the D May 17-22 , a rally here would be a
correction completing a retracement correction after which there'll be more down
es: expecting more downside possibly lasting the whole week
xauusd: 0.10 Sell 1387.81
..................
cl: D looks like it could drop to the 90 area, but the W looks like it's ready to rally
ng: see if it continues down
 
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