The Wallace Trading Method

Wed session June 6

ECB may make some statement/s around 8:30am est

the 4H looks as tho it's doing an H&S but whatever, I expect the price to decline to the
8:30 ECB beginning now or perhaps the next 4H
both the 60 and 4H Ls stopped at their respective downward sdcs, so once the price
breaks thru those levels it should move quite quickly, perhaps down to 1.2323 first, or
lower; next level 1.2281

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Thur session June 7

blown call yesterday

JCs at 8:30am est and Bernanke at 10

topped or more to come ?

the price rallied thru the gap and closed above the R fibo at 1.2556 , above is the 61 at
1.2619 and 76 at 1.2697
will the price come off to around the 38 1.2492 or a little lower and after Bernanke's
testimony has been digested and regurgitated, resume another rally and lasting until
Monday when it then begins to fall. or, decline from here and continue falling, or rally
regardless of Bernank's testimony ?
how about rally till a week on Monday ? up to that gap at 1.2915 ?
and, perhaps a base will form with the B leg beginning next week

one of those 'void' times when there's nothing definitive that the charts are revealing

so I'll have to trade it by ear ;

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Fri session June 8

the price could as easily run up from here or down

it sits on various mls and again hasn't dropped to the lower gap line, only dropping as
far as the 50 . so I have to target the 76 as its next destination around 1.270 but
it has to break and close above 1.2580 and then 1.2592 spot, otherwise it might only
be rallying to form the right H&S shoulder around 1.2580 before declining

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Sunday for Mon session June 11

' Spain IS Greece After All:
Here Are The Main Outstanding Items Following The Spanish Bailout '
submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/09/2012 14:52 -0400
. . . " In other words: is it time for the Italian bank suicide trade ? " . . .
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spain-greece-after-all-here-are-main-outstanding-items

Ray Dalio: 1975 founded the investment management firm, Bridgewater Associates
the largest hedge fund in the world with $120 billion under management
'Dalio's World' by Sandra Ward . Barron's Cover Monday May 21/12
'Ray Dalio, fabled hedge-fund manager, says the U.S. has done a "beautiful" job
deleveraging, but sees a 30% chance Europe will stumble badly.'
http://online.barrons.com/article/S...577390023566415282.html#articleTabs_article=1
'dalio' pdf - about credit, debt and deleveraging - 21 pages
' A Template for Understanding
How the Economic Machine Works and How it is Reflected Now ' by Ray Dalio
Created October 31, 2008 | Updated March, 2012

~ ~ ~

a sensitive week

Friday the price closed on or around the M's ml, on the W above its ml, and on the D's
various lines, above a major ml - just
with the price being so close to all ml lines, I expect it to drop thru them and continue

down for 2 more weeks into the 1.18s, worst case, 1.14s, and I don't see anything
changing that scenario except, a Greek majority government
key level to watch is the M 50 C fibo which I have as 1.2238

Spain has asked for and will receive up to €100/$125B, just for to cover its banks, but
how much is Really required ?

the focus or crisis depending on your pov is increased by Spain with the release of
their banks' 'stress tests' results - and will they be reliable ? possibly coinciding with
the Greek election results at the beginning of next week
a non majority vote has the top 3 parties in turn trying to form a government, a process
that can stretch to the tenth day when a caretaker government is sought, prior to —
'a new EleCtionnnnn'

1:40pm pst: Oanda's printed a HH of 1.26597 , the price having come off and rallying
again. so the price will have jumped the gap for the 2pm opening, and whatever that
closing price of that tf bar is, will be the new top of the gap, continuous from 1.2519
although there'll still be some play around the 1.2560 area

the price may sell-off right away, perhaps only as a correction, rally and stay up until
the 0:8 4H bar and then begin a decline, perhaps from the 76 at the 1.2670s area

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Attachments

hmmmm, nobody likes Dalio eh



Tue session June 12

thinking the price may go back up to the gap line, and make a C there, Eupie opening
and expect a close down based on the sdcs on the chart, around 1.2377
that's maybe a bit low, it's a 76 , the 61' s at 1.2433 , alternate is down first then up
but trying to predict at this point in time is a bit of a fool's errand, there might be some
up closes in the next few days but basically the trend's Down

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Wed session June 13

have to wonder if there's going to be continued HC for this and tomorrow's session
before the price turns down from, 1.2560 ?

the price can drop from either this 4H bar or one of the next 2

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Thur session June 14

it surprises me to see the price so high, but then if you want a good Short . . .

I'm thinking the price will close up on Friday above the 1.2631 gap line around 1.2660
this also means the price may come off first, possibly beginning with the next 4H bar
and drop to around the 1.2519 gap line, a down close day , , , , , although
there could be a slow drift up and the HC is at the end of today's session

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Fri session June 15

* * * I'll be looking at charts and reviewing the news and write a bit of a report that I'll
post sometime on Saturday or Sunday morning
I'll leave the Mon update till 1 or 2pm pst to see what prices are going thru Oanda


"WARNING WARNING WARNING' from Oanda and their weekend trading hours
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=244481


at present the price has topped at the outer line of an inner sdc on the 4H, closing a
pip above the gap line, now declining, dicking around with the 60m ml - drop or not ?
I expect the price to come off until the Eupies are up and about, and then, rally ?

if last Monday's H were to be included in an lrc, the 1.2660 target might be exceed
and the price run into the 1.28s, up to the lower outer lrc line would be around 1.2720

the major alternate to higher highs is that between last Monday and yesterday's Close
a reversal formation has completed and it's all down from here, which seems to be a
sensible idea, getting the L out of the market
price plunge ? hmmmm, price in the gap, 1.2560 then 1.2519 , what'll the Eupies do ?

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Sat/Sun June 16/17

much less to say than I thought on Thursday afternoon

Athens +10/7 PST/EST hours ahead
Greek voting stops on Sunday at 9am/noon PST/EST
exit polls updating continuously with result estimates a couple of hours later
possible more accurate results at 1:00/4:00pm PST/EST - 11pm Athens
some time on Athens' Monday official results should be released

"The Greek constitution says if elections are held within 18 months of the previous
ones, the voting method changes.
Voters this time around will not be able to pick candidates from their party of choice by
putting a cross next to their names.
Instead, they will only vote for their party of choice.
Ballots where voters have put a cross next to candidates’ names will be considered invalid."
http://blogs.wsj.com/eurocrisis/2012/06/15/a-practical-guide-to-the-second-greek-elections/

for some reason, Wednesday is sticking in my mind
further to the recent stress tests of Spain's banks, results of independant audits are
expected to be released by June 21at the latest - Thursday
Spain's banks are said to need €40/$50B, but who's calculating how much real estate
debt they are carrying ? this may be resolved by the 'independant' audits, but as the Irish
discovered, their €10B estimate rose to over €50B

expect a coalition government to be formed but it doesn't change much does it

looked at gold lately ? looks like the correction's over and the next major wave Up has
begun; how high ?

$'s coming off a major ml intersection, a correction ? so the euro should continue to
rally the rest of this month, and then . . .
 
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