The Wallace Trading Method

Thu session May 10

today may see a small rally related and Prior to, US Jobless Claims at 8:30am est
which May be down again, 360 K to 380 K . . . 1.2953 , although it could go higher with
an outside chance of that 1.3000-03 area being reached

can't use Rectracement fibos anymore, outside the range of any prices, using an
Expansion fibo: 1.2890 and via a long term R fibo: 1.2827 , possibly today, possibly
not till Fri or maybe Mon; it's also where a couple of SDCs intersect so there may be
a bounce next week, alternately the downside will continue straight down to the 1.26
area before it stops, bases

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I'd intended to have a nap and forgot, by 2am my eyelids were closing waiting for
the price to base - hah ! don't know what I was doing between 5-5:30am but when I
looked at the monitor and saw the price drop I said 'game over' and went to bed

what a wanker
I haven't been doing the daily CK as I call the report - Check List, moron
continuing my old habit of 'keeping the list' in my head
if I had completed the CK I'd have been well aware of one SDC in particular that last
Friday's price had gone down to the ml and no lower, a channel Already on the D I'd
drawn the prior weekend when I switched from the ES to 6E, the beginning of the gap

hung up on closing the gap, which I Know doesn't happen every time
a problem with being too 'detail oriented', not only 'can't see the forest for the trees' but
'can't see the trees for the bark'
 
Fri session May 11

I did find an R fibo where the price topped just above the 50 on both the 6E and spot
the 1.3000's between the 61 and 76

will the Greeks coaliss a government ? a definitive NO has not been stated, if a NO
were to be heard, there'd be a large dump don't you think
today's Close is 17 pips below a 61 , although the price had risen above it during the
session. one TT I have is for Monday, one was yesterday and the Close today rose up
to the ml of a SDC the price has been trading within, auspicious ?
think it's down to the Greeks, in other words, 'it's all Greek to me' ;

8:30 PPI down a bit ? 9:55 CS up a bit ?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

3 trades net $232.18 , but poor trading, see attached
 

Attachments

Sunday for Mon session May 14

the EU pop is: 503.8M July/12 est while Greece at 10.7M a mere 2% of the EU total, so
it's not going to be missed but, a bankruptcy/default pressures those countries etc it
owes money to: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13798000
today's meet isn't likely to see a coalition; Thursday will be the official announcement
of another election scheduled for Sunday June 17
Nov 3/11 'Consequences of a Greek default': graphic, used again in today's FT edition
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0a35504a-0615-11e1-a079-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1ugkGcnXn

euro M TT is Down into July
dollar at 80.40 see if it breaks thru 81.50 then 82.5 , and if a Greek default, it may fly
up to and thru 85+
euro should see the 1.26 area, but with the price now sitting on a W SEC with the ml
for it intersecting the 50 level fibo in June/July just under 1.22 . 61 just under 1.13

there's a possibility that while no coalition's been formed, a correction formation will
occur until The final day when the formal 'election again' statement is made Wed/Thur
LL 1.2835 ? close the gap ? 1.30 Tue/Wed ?

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Tue session May 15

well, at least the downside target was good

price is sitting on various channel intersections and has hit TTs suggesting support -
trend changed, but I don't hold much confidence that's going to happen - broke thru

today there's a €436M note due for repayment, will the Greeks pay it ? if not, when
the news hits I'd imagine a hard fast dump, because coalition or not, the knock-ons
are going to be hitting everywhere and wouldn't it be a game over ? deeeee f a u l t

one question tho, is Greece the scapegoat for a lower euro ?

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

loss, 12 pips + comm - see attached
 

Attachments

Wed session May 16

price down thru various SDC's mls, rebounding off the outer line of inner sdcs
2 76s, 1.26772 , and 1.26067 which is the level the price came down to Jan 13/16 this
year, but, on the M the price is approaching the ml of an SDC the price is traveling within
and, Thru the ml of a major sdc which the price bounced off Dec/11 , so while the price
may pause at the 1.26 area by week end, it's first the 1.2250 area that's likely to see
support ? before continuing Down

in the current downtrend there's only been one Up Close, so with all the bad news out
it's possible this session may, also close up, re-crossing the D sdc ml, H 1.28+ ?

Did the Greeks make the €435M refunding ? all I read is 'going to'

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

down 5 pips net - attached
 

Attachments

Thur session May 17

Greek election confirmed for June 17

yesterday's LL was a 1.26805 v the 76 at 1.26772 . no Up Close but a temporary end to
the downside ?
today's open is on the D ml, and what looks like an inverted v - AB base appears to have
formed on the 4H . . . Up ?

- - - - - - // 'ECB stops operations with some Greek banks' // - - - - - - -
6E 55+ pips dump in 90 secs, 7299 contracts on the 8:06:30 30s bar

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

32 pip loss + comm - attached, plus
60m and 4H 'channel charts'
 

Attachments

Fri session May 18

1.26067 is the make-or-break level, then 1.2479 , so today and Monday may answer
the question, will the price run up until the Greek elelctions results June 17/18 ? —
'Buy on rumour Sell on news'

316 contracts 6E open down 14 pips, down 25 on spot ! - did a base just complete ?
price above all mls

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

ditched the crosses, trying another one
 
Sun for Mon session May 21

four weeks - 20 trading days is quite a length of time for the euro just to be doing a
retracement. there's already polls of which party's in the lead, etc and that'll continue
till the exit polls next month, at which time a probably coalition government Still has to
be formed out of those elected, and Then the fun begins about Greece paying or not,
staying in the EU or not, and what Germany et al may be prepared to offer

expect you know where the R fibo levels are and the two gaps. the 38 is below the first
gap and 61 just above the start up of the second larger gap
no idea what the formation's going to look like by June 17 , probably a Lot of ziggywiggywaggyzaggy

Oanda's printed a correction low of 1.2735 which Might be the low of the day once the
6E's done similar, lower could be 1.2720

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Tue session May 22

not sure how realistic it is that the price will make the full retracement, even in 4 weeks
now using a fibo from the top that went into the upper gap, the fibo can always be raised

expecting the price to come off again, maybe 1.2760s based on channel lines, 23 is
around 1.2740 , then all things being equal, a rally to new highs ?

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15m debt, EU, Greece: Michael Platt CEO of $30B BlueCrest Capital fund
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/93086569/

-11 pips + 3 comms - revision attached
 

Attachments

Wed session May 23

think I have to say it's all Down from here
perhaps Fri and Mon were just a short covering rally from the record COT shorts info
from last week's release. there is a possibility of another wave up but not much of one
obviously 'they' didn't want to 'let it go', so if not today, when ?

all-day EU ECB 'summit' today, to bond or not to bond, if a 'NO' statement is released
will that be the signal to let go ?

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