The View Down River

I see:

- a mkt that would have thoroughly tested the resolve of a long
term position trader ;>)

- a classic double bottom (or 1-2-3 low if you prefer) indicating a
reversal of the major trend (in this time frame)

- a 50 to maybe 61.8% retrace from the hi after price took out
the #2 pt.

- a recent breakout from a large triangle, with the flat top of the
triangle at the 12400 - 12450 level, and the other side being
drawn under the lows from 8/25 thru 10/11

- price currently testing the top of a large channel, which I won't
attempt to describe because of time constraints this evening,
(and also because I feel that would be quite a stretch for me to
actually use in my own trading approach)
 
A glass of wine at the dinner table makes things interesting... I see a "River"!

It runs to the left, stalls, then it runs to the right, and stalls again. The cycle repeats itself endlessly.

Where is this "River" leading? For that I may have to have another glass of wine... but who cares? After it stalls and builds a small pond or a large reservoir, it will then overflow or break the bank and get going. If we view it in a three-dimentional way, we want to see which part of the bank is lower, or weaker.

To me its pretty random anyways, but one thing is for sure: I want to float along with it, not against it.
 
It dawned on me that the time frames on your last two charts are pulled out of the fib series. As the German dude on Hogan's Heroes would've said: "Veerly interlesting"
 
Good Morining Everyone. Well patience paid off. Maybe.

I just exited the short trade from 1.1934 and reversed long at 1.1889. There may be more downside, but I am going to see if I can catch a move up.

That was a tuff 45 points so far.

Same as yesterday, I think we will need to clear the 1.1907 area if we do move back up. If not, we could get more downside so be careful.

I will update after some coffee.

DRT
 
For those of you who are fine tuning your methodology....I want you to think about somethng right now. The majority of individual traders probably see the market going down and are short. They may very well be right this time, but in my opinion they sold very low and could have sold their currency much higher in the short term time frame. I bet the many who depend on this currency for other reasons think so too and they used this opportunity to purchase at a perceived "good value".

The key is defining the value areas. No revelation here, just needs to be said.

DRT
 
6:13 AM Price 1.1902

Price is heading into the 1.1905-7 area. It may turn back down. If you are inclined you can enter long around 1.1985 if it does in fact head back down and you missed the first opportunity.

You could also sell in this area for a quick 15-20 ticks. And wait for it to clear the 1.1907 hurdle or buy it back below again.

DRT




Quote from downrivertrader:

Good Morining Everyone. Well patience paid off. Maybe.

I just exited the short trade from 1.1934 and reversed long at 1.1889. There may be more downside, but I am going to see if I can catch a move up.

That was a tuff 45 points so far.

Same as yesterday, I think we will need to clear the 1.1907 area if we do move back up. If not, we could get more downside so be careful.

I will update after some coffee.

DRT
More...
 
A short thought on these bases...it is my experience that a true temporary bottom always gets tested at least twice. If you remember yesterday, price hit the 1.1905-1.1907 area and shot out. I am always more confident if we go back down and test, pick up the fills so the curve develops properly.

DRT
 
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