Looks like a strong defensive line at 1.1900 cash. Probably from the Pittsburg Options team. Be careful.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
The View Down River
- Thread starter downrivertrader
- Start date
I realize shorts look a little shakey right now and I would agree, but if you are inclined to go short......then watch the pullback to this 1.1928 level. If it fails, a short would be a good trade. Just use a tight stop to protect yourself.
I will cover if their is 1.1928 area gives way to the topside
DRT
I will cover if their is 1.1928 area gives way to the topside
DRT
I have a feeling the 10:00 AM time could be a bit of a zinger. May produce zig zag motions on charts. Options expiry and some data so be cautious.
DRT
DRT
9:30 AM EST Price 1.1919
I now have the ideal low entry point coming in around 1.1891 on EC. I am still short form 1.1934, but the options plays are making life difficult.
DRT
STill looking for the surge in JY back up to 119 - 119.06 concurrently if it works.
I now have the ideal low entry point coming in around 1.1891 on EC. I am still short form 1.1934, but the options plays are making life difficult.
DRT
STill looking for the surge in JY back up to 119 - 119.06 concurrently if it works.
Quote from downrivertrader:
2-21 6:05 AM Price at 1.1928
Good morning everyone. I just entered short at 1.1934 a few minutes ago.
The picture is not totally clear for me this morning. I still think we have to probe downward. I am fairly focused on the 1.1928 area. If this gives way, I am looking for a move down to the 1.1900 area where I see strong support.
To the topside, any break above 1.1948 and I will cover.
If price does move down, I will look to reverse my position and get long ideally around 1.1896, but there is solid support at 1.902 also. So I won't be stubborn but look for an exit of the short and a long entry in this area.
This is a key area. I do see some signs of this not holding. I suspect there will be a decent run up out of here, but I still have the real support down around 1.1826 and I would not be surprised if we get there somehow.
Good trading and I will try to update if I change my position.
DRT
Also, keep your eye on the USDJPY. If it moves into 118.96 this should produce a move down and a counter move up in EC. Ideally, we would reach the 1.896-1.1902 level around the same time the JPY is slamming into 1.1896. Likewise, if the USDJPY moves strongly thru this area, then we may continue on down in the EUR.
The following is some information that I found interesting regarding volume levels in each cash currency market. It may be of interest.
Central Banks - FX Structure
Tokyo: 7 pm est - 3 am
Average daily volume: $150 bn
Tokyo is the first market to open and many large participants use it to get a read on the dynamics of the market or, begin scaling into positions. Trading can be thin an hedge funds and banks have been known to use the Tokyo lunch hour to run stops and option barrier levels
The Yen, Kiwi and Aussie pairs dominate trading.
Most active Pairs:
Eur/USD 13%
USD/JY 70%
EUR/JY 14%
London: 3 am est - 11 am
Average daily volume: 570bn
London is the largest and most important fx market with 30% of all transactions occurring there. Most big bank dealing desks are run out of London and the market is responsible for 28% of all spot volume. The overlap with New York provides the greatest fx liquidity
New York: 8 am est - 5 pm
Average daily volume: 330bn
New York is the second most important market with 16% of market volume. The majority of deals are completed between 8 am and 12 pm when European traders are still active. After this trading becomes choppy and often trading volume drops by 50%.
FX sequence of openings: Wellington NZ, Sydney Aust, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, London, New York
Good luck to everyone.
Central Banks - FX Structure
Tokyo: 7 pm est - 3 am
Average daily volume: $150 bn
Tokyo is the first market to open and many large participants use it to get a read on the dynamics of the market or, begin scaling into positions. Trading can be thin an hedge funds and banks have been known to use the Tokyo lunch hour to run stops and option barrier levels
The Yen, Kiwi and Aussie pairs dominate trading.
Most active Pairs:
Eur/USD 13%
USD/JY 70%
EUR/JY 14%
London: 3 am est - 11 am
Average daily volume: 570bn
London is the largest and most important fx market with 30% of all transactions occurring there. Most big bank dealing desks are run out of London and the market is responsible for 28% of all spot volume. The overlap with New York provides the greatest fx liquidity
New York: 8 am est - 5 pm
Average daily volume: 330bn
New York is the second most important market with 16% of market volume. The majority of deals are completed between 8 am and 12 pm when European traders are still active. After this trading becomes choppy and often trading volume drops by 50%.
FX sequence of openings: Wellington NZ, Sydney Aust, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, London, New York
Good luck to everyone.
The view from here: spot
Euro resistance: 1915, 1926 1945, and the key level at 1967
Support: layered from 1893 - 1875 (strong demand at 1875)
If 1893 if broken, then the next support level is 1841
I will probe the long side from the 1893 level, again spot. I think from the larger trend is now up despite downside jabs.
Attached is a long term dollar chart which may be of interest.
Euro resistance: 1915, 1926 1945, and the key level at 1967
Support: layered from 1893 - 1875 (strong demand at 1875)
If 1893 if broken, then the next support level is 1841
I will probe the long side from the 1893 level, again spot. I think from the larger trend is now up despite downside jabs.
Attached is a long term dollar chart which may be of interest.
Attachments
The 1.1907 level is a good buy. I am going to "hope" for one more surge lower.
Quote from downrivertrader:
9:30 AM EST Price 1.1919
I now have the ideal low entry point coming in around 1.1891 on EC. I am still short form 1.1934, but the options plays are making life difficult.
DRT
STill looking for the surge in JY back up to 119 - 119.06 concurrently if it works.
Just a thought at this time. If we do head lower and get filled around the .1893 level and move up. We MUST get back thru the 1.907 level for any meaningful move to the topside. So be aware of this if you get filled long down below. I will try to update on this.
If .1907 holds then use as a long base.
DRT
If .1907 holds then use as a long base.
DRT
11:58 EST Price 1.926
I am still short. I did not cover at 1.1907. A break above 1.1928 that holds and I will cover, otherwise I do not think bottom has occurred. I am looking to enter in the 1.1892 area. If we go back and test 1.1907 again I may cover the short here, but I do not plan to enter long just yet.
DRT
9:30 AM EST Price 1.1919
I now have the ideal low entry point coming in around 1.1891 on EC. I am still short form 1.1934, but the options plays are making life difficult.
DRT
STill looking for the surge in JY back up to 119 - 119.06 concurrently if it works.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from downrivertrader:
2-21 6:05 AM Price at 1.1928
Good morning everyone. I just entered short at 1.1934 a few minutes ago.
The picture is not totally clear for me this morning. I still think we have to probe downward. I am fairly focused on the 1.1928 area. If this gives way, I am looking for a move down to the 1.1900 area where I see strong support.
To the topside, any break above 1.1948 and I will cover.
If price does move down, I will look to reverse my position and get long ideally around 1.1896, but there is solid support at 1.902 also. So I won't be stubborn but look for an exit of the short and a long entry in this area.
This is a key area. I do see some signs of this not holding. I suspect there will be a decent run up out of here, but I still have the real support down around 1.1826 and I would not be surprised if we get there somehow.
Good trading and I will try to update if I change my position.
DRT
Also, keep your eye on the USDJPY. If it moves into 118.96 this should produce a move down and a counter move up in EC. Ideally, we would reach the 1.896-1.1902 level around the same time the JPY is slamming into 1.1896. Likewise, if the USDJPY moves strongly thru this area, then we may continue on down in the EUR.
I am still short. I did not cover at 1.1907. A break above 1.1928 that holds and I will cover, otherwise I do not think bottom has occurred. I am looking to enter in the 1.1892 area. If we go back and test 1.1907 again I may cover the short here, but I do not plan to enter long just yet.
DRT
9:30 AM EST Price 1.1919
I now have the ideal low entry point coming in around 1.1891 on EC. I am still short form 1.1934, but the options plays are making life difficult.
DRT
STill looking for the surge in JY back up to 119 - 119.06 concurrently if it works.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from downrivertrader:
2-21 6:05 AM Price at 1.1928
Good morning everyone. I just entered short at 1.1934 a few minutes ago.
The picture is not totally clear for me this morning. I still think we have to probe downward. I am fairly focused on the 1.1928 area. If this gives way, I am looking for a move down to the 1.1900 area where I see strong support.
To the topside, any break above 1.1948 and I will cover.
If price does move down, I will look to reverse my position and get long ideally around 1.1896, but there is solid support at 1.902 also. So I won't be stubborn but look for an exit of the short and a long entry in this area.
This is a key area. I do see some signs of this not holding. I suspect there will be a decent run up out of here, but I still have the real support down around 1.1826 and I would not be surprised if we get there somehow.
Good trading and I will try to update if I change my position.
DRT
Also, keep your eye on the USDJPY. If it moves into 118.96 this should produce a move down and a counter move up in EC. Ideally, we would reach the 1.896-1.1902 level around the same time the JPY is slamming into 1.1896. Likewise, if the USDJPY moves strongly thru this area, then we may continue on down in the EUR.