The TREND is your friend.. The biggest lie ever!

[BONECRUSHER]

Not always, but that is reality!

Little story to think about.

I always wanted to be able to arc weld - for our non hand users that simply means joining 2 pieces of metal together - so I decided to do a few night courses, and started last night.

One of the first things the instructor showed us, after just meeting a few min, was, " this is how you hold the welding rod holder correctly".

After tea break, which was 2 hours later, I finally started to concentrate on what he said, as my mind was thinking bout other things as we practiced using the rod, and in the next 2 hours, I got the hang of it, doing a nice clean weld by end of night.

The most important thing, was, listening to what the instrutor told us in the first few min, as it made all the difference!

J_S

Well done...or is it weld done?

 

[J_Smith]

3/4 high..does catch my eye
might limit place..just in case
no time to stare..as must prepare
for joining steel..as it's unreal

if i am wrong..not a big song
for i will try..stop 10 points high
if price advance..i will not dance
but neither fret..nor start to sweat

i never know..if it be so
nor really care..if see not bear
for main thing be..that i can see
it won't explode..unless news told

so what if lose..5 ton no bruise
for made last week..when things look bleek
and now the trend..might be near end
i will go short..in case spike thwart

J_S

 

[J_Smith]

Well done...or is it weld done?

Will see later on

J_S

 

[J_Smith]

so price move bit..and limit hit
and on some more..but me not sore
then down it go..although bit slow
and made me sick..by just few tick

big question be..what next do me
did sit and stare..hope price stay bear
or was i smart..and look at chart
and move up so..to catch the flow

i let you guess..is it a mess
for now it be..next where start me
so did i act..and look at fact
or was i dope..who sit and HOPE

J_S

 

[murray t turtle]

A 5 sec chart exhibts trends, and if a person is unable to see them, then it is due to the way the person looks at the picture!

When most look at the Mona Lisa - and she is not a porn star, for our juvenile traders - most see a very average plain looking woman, that would not make heads turn.

So, why is it that it is one of the most expensive paintings in the world!!!

J_S

%%
Mr Smith , we see your trend points[5.....]; did you see my point?? Implication is , many measure money management skills by the month, year,10 years.....Mr i know thisnickname;; 200 day-moving average is a good trend changer measure . Cant answer your last question, she looks to HI priced to me- ANY could buy so much REALTY for that money!!

 

[amittimothy]

A Friend never betray you, unless you prefer to betray him again and again.
When you guys want to seriously succeed in Forex trading. Just follow the trend. This is my best advice. Failure in Forex is expensive.

Look at the charts, how many time can you win by betraying it?
Im giving this advice not as a sarcasm or a critic, but as an experience trader. Learn what works and what duplicates, this way, you will be closer to success.

Right or Wrong is not important. But becoming successful is more important. This is my last post here. LEARN TO FOLLOW THE TREND..

 

[J_Smith]

%%
Mr Smith , we see your trend points[5.....]; did you see my point?? Implication is , many measure money management skills by the month, year,10 years.....Mr i know thisnickname;; 200 day-moving average is a good trend changer measure . Cant answer your last question, she looks to HI priced to me- ANY could buy so much REALTY for that money!!

Many think you have to be very smart in order to make money trading, but, the reality is that all you need to do is watch the market, and trade it with proper risk management, and proper awareness!

I made some money on ES trade, but as I was busy with some other things today, I did not bother to look again, and, it appears the news drove the market down, which is normal.

It is not the market that catches the trader out, it is him/her self!

J_S

 

[Max E.]

while the trend can be fickle at times it is definitely helpful to know when it is on your side and when it isnt, and the times of the day you are trading as a day trader. The morning trend often changes and its important to note when you are not on trend, vs when you are, if you are on the right side of the trend it is ok to size in on bounces if you are on the wrong side be careful. a good example today, on JWN.

I was short it early in the day hoping for it to break down, i added at 44.8 when i bounced back up, then got stopped out and flipped long over 45 as the trend was now up, tons of retailers it was the same story today, its very important to know if you are on the FRONTSIDE or the BACKSIDE, of a two or three day move.

If you are day trading and only trying to learn how to trade trends, then you are going to fail 100% guaranteed.. Trends are just a small part of trading, and if you don't study the rest of the market then you are toast.. The odds are against you.. Whether you believe me or not, this trading game was design to take your money.. You are going against the smartest people in the world.. Scientists, mathematicians, billionaires and etc... Do you think your $20 book that you bought from amazon is going to save you? Give me a break!

Now back to the trend.. If the trend is my friend then how come it only shows up 30% of the time? What kind of friend is that? Call me stupid, but I don't want a friend like that.. In trading you have to learn about more than trends in order to survive.. The market is always trying to screw you over and trap you so you have to become aware of this.. There are 7 main things the market is trying to do constantly. Maybe not every single day on one instrument, but you will see it throughout the whole market.. And this is one of the reasons why the market is hard to trade because the market doesn't act the same everyday...

The 7 things are 1) short/long squeeze (fake trends), 2) consolidation, 3) range, 4)strong trends, 5) semi trends, 6) breakouts, and 7) reverses... I'm too lazy to explain every single one of these so you will have to study them yourself

The market loves to trick you into believing that your ONE system is going to make you money.. And then 3 months from now your ONE system is going to stop working and I wonder why? Is it because you was trading a trendy market and now it's not trending lol..

The best way I found to trade the market is to wait for the market to be in a predictable state.. Yes, a predictable state.. What does a predictable state look like? When the market is bouncing off extreme levels is what I call a predictable state.. Trend lines, s&r, and channels... Yes, I know they are hard to draw in real time for most people, but guess what? It's supposed to be hard.. If it wasn't then the game would be easy, and the big boys wouldn't like that.. The best thing I can tell you is to practice everyday in real time and in non real time.. It took me 9 years to see what's really going on.. and I'm still learning

Now, I'm not here to beat down trends because you can make a lot of money from them if you know how to hold onto winners.. But the real trends only appear 30% of the time.. Most people get confused and think that a temporary direction is a trend.. But real trends last for the whole day..

If you are a struggling trader, and you always get caught in chop, then you will need to stop trading and get familiar with the 7 things above.. Plus, you will need to get familiar with trading predictable states...

 

[profitlocker]

The morning trend often changes and its important to note when you are not on trend, vs when you are, if you are on the right side of the trend it is ok to size in on bounces if you are on the wrong side be careful

With all the whipsaws you absolutely need some kind of a filter. I developed my own pricing model that works on any instrument. The only prerequisite is volume and volatility. Not hard to anticipate what's going to move if you carefully analyze the historical data

 

[Max E.]

With all the whipsaws you absolutely need some kind of a filter. I developed my own pricing model that works on any instrument. The only prerequisite is volume and volatility. Not hard to anticipate what's going to move if you carefully analyze the historical data

Yeah basically on any given day im buying a spot or selling it hoping for support/resistance to hold then if it does and i start seeing lowrer highs i add to my short or higher lows i add to myt long JWN was a text book example today.

I didnt make much on the trade but i traded it both ways based on the Trend and the change from morning panick to afternoon buying, its crucial you are aware of this as a trader.

I think that the trend is more relevant than ever with the takeover of electronic trading you need to know who is in control and what the results of that could be.


You should always know that the trend has changed when the last number you figured could have been resistance now starts to hold as support, you just know at that poin its going to stick it to the shorts or stick it to the longs.

Given the fact that all i am doing is gambling, and i basically only go long/short at support/resistance areas, id say it is imperative to know which side ofr the trend you are on and when you are on it, i short things and let them trend against me for a while, but then only size in once i know im throoughly on the right side. You will go broke as a trader if you dont short things when you see support/resistance but then only size in once its confirmed.