The TREND is your friend.. The biggest lie ever!

[i am nobody]

Intraday trends are random,

It is because most people see it as random, that people who know it is not random can make money.
Most people see intraday as random and most people lose intraday money. Maybe there is a connection between the two?

I have a friend who wants to start his own business already for +25 years. He still did not start anything. He says there are no good opportunities. In the same period I started up several businesses and sold them. He will go in pension this year (he much older than me ) and then he will realize that his whole life he was watching for opportunities, opportunities he never found. In the same period thousand or even millions of people started own businesses and several even became billionaires. If you cannot find opportunities does not mean there are no.
Same applies in trading.

You will never find something that from start does not exist for you.

 

[profitlocker]

It is because most people see it as random, that people who know it is not random can make money

Exactly. With that random line of thinking, they've lost the battle before it even starts. Conviction is huge in this game

 

[J_Smith]

It is because most people see it as random, that people who know it is not random can make money.
Most people see intraday as random and most people lose intraday money. Maybe there is a connection between the two?

I have a friend who wants to start his own business already for +25 years. He still did not start anything. He says there are no good opportunities. In the same period I started up several businesses and sold them. He will go in pension this year (he much older than me ) and then he will realize that his whole life he was watching for opportunities, opportunities he never found. In the same period thousand or even millions of people started own businesses and several even became billionaires. If you cannot find opportunities does not mean there are no.
Same applies in trading.

You will never find something that from start does not exist for you.

Trading is 99.99% mental, the act of trading is the easy peasy bit - like your friend, it is the same in all walks of life!

If you want a job done quickly, always give it to a person who is busy!

J_S

 

[Handle123]

This is not the only insanity in trading. Intraday trends are random, long daily trends are due to deterministic component. In stocks due to dividend payouts and rebalancing of indexes.

Mostly I believe in random periods due to nature of ES, this market has areas based on either cycles(Low percentage chances for trend continuation) that are correct in my back testing to be 50% true or mini swings which are basically areas to fool newbies of turnabout. Now most will say 50% is not all that good, but when one break downs what the other 50% is which is a mixture of chop with smaller range bars(another nuance that newbies know little of when bars get too small, best to stand aside till bigger range bars comes in), low volume spikes in one direction giving false breakouts-these develop as someone hit enough volume to cover two price levels to cause computers to take notice and trip stops, possible chart patterns that scream "please don't trade me" like Megaphones, narrowing of Bollinger Bands is a real toss up of direction. So now the 50% is actually looking pretty good, but mainly looking good, risk can be smaller than the other side of the 50%.

Probability tells me at cycle tops/bottoms, price either holds or it doesn't and instead of risking less overall, can increase size but mental protective stops is tightened to 6 ticks. So I can double size and overall risk is the same of all my trades. So I am applying counter-trend signals but it is still in random play cause the market has already gone 10 points.

The times price is screaming in one direction, I get very few trades in dropping like an anvil, mee mep roadrunner. But where I am taking profit is where another group of old fart trend traders are taking other side of this old fart trader's trade. I am delighted they going to try to get the bigger pieces and I am satisfied to consistently getting the scraps. And they are the ones causing the market to become directional. YEAAAAAAA.

 

[J_Smith]

People always forget about the opportunity cost of longer term positions. If high volatility isn't present within the first hour of my intraday entry, I don't want any part of it. Plenty of good setups for a smart daytrader. Based on my research, with leverage factored in, intraday trading pays more

It all depends, again, on the personal circumstances and trading "strategy" used.

I have often seen 100 shares of VXX and XIV go into red, and I then buy another 100 when charts look ok, and if wrong, and it falls some more, I buy another 100, and have kept doing that up to 500, but no more.

Then I just wait for rebound and sell for $200 to $300 profit. Worked every time so far.

However, the money tied up is not required, as if it was, then it would be a different story, and yes, you then have to take into account the lost opportunities cost of having money that you can use tied up.

This is why it is always better to have enough, never risk too much, and just play along like a little incy wincy market maker, as that is exactly what they do in order to make money.

Only a fool will overtrade, which I was in the past, but never will happen again, as it is no good making money if you can't hold on to it.

J_S

 

[BONECRUSHER]

Six plus years ago, it was all about making the most profits and damn the losses. In 2010, I had brain surgery, wild, the surgeons went up through nostrils(they use to remove nose before) then go up in nasal cavity as I had golf size tumor, I died twice on the table, when I eventually woke up from that, I swear I had out of the body experience during one of the dead occurrences. Tough to explain what happened...when I got home, I completely revamped my day trading and went in the direction of trading risk instead of price. From then on, my trading did a 180 degrees on what I wanted to do in day trading and other forms of trading. I changed from thinking of profits to losing percentages, it never dawned on me to forget about profits and concentrate on comparisons of risk during the trade based only on the original entry, let the ave down entries follow leader of the original entry.

It happens sparingly to have a week with no losses, but truly very hard for me to do as I take an abundance of signals in a week, if I took and quit at 6 points based on original signals, I'd probably have ten a year of no losses, cause 6 points can be either 2 or 3 trades in a day, but some days am taking up to 40 trades in hour, going to have losses, usually from reversing into something else. Sometimes I get three losses in a row from this but not full losses, and I am concentrating so hard, have no idea till after I had three losses in a row, LOL.

If the pre-fifteen minutes had come from a move of 7-10 points down and for fifteen minutes it is making support area, if opening bar moving up, I am in on long side and most of the time get that 2-3 points.

Congrats on no losses.

I use two 19" laptops, one for charting and other have 12 Domes, LOL, all color coded, each signal has it's own color. Staff made me Domes that are very narrow and programmed, talks to me of possibilities that is happening, something new we been working on, my memory no longer what it use to be.

I use one bar delay on trend, so I go by whatever the bar before was as far as trend, so there are times when it is obvious by the world that trend has changed on current bar, but Trading Plan has trend of bar before, surprisingly how often staying in works well, but when one thinks about it, clear trend change often has retracement almost immediately cause trend change is often hitting opposing protective stops which cause market to go further and retracement generally has to happen.



ROFLMAO, I have spend light years back testing to do the opposite, keep thinking maybe next year...But I have figured out a few things from keeping that journal that are useful. When "I just know I should skip the targets as this trade going to the moon" that means get out RIGHT NOW. And when the pain is hurting my brain and I NEED to get out to get rid of brain pain even though price not gotten to my mental stop, stand up and do a few Jumping jacks, market reverses and I get plus one tick.

I am constantly reminded of George Constantza of Seigfeld show where George does complete opposite with women and other areas of his life, and he becomes changed man, with women and lands a job with the Yankees after he chewed out George Steinbrenner.......My Trading Pan is so much smarter than I am.

That's so intense...hearing what you went through during surgery...glad you got through it! I'm kinda blown away with the fact you have a trading staff and can trade up to 40 trades an hour. To be efficient with that many trades is crazy. I don't like to say this...because it brings out hostility and disbelief...but I frequently go several weeks without a loss during the year, but I only make 1-2 trades a day. Some weeks I take days off because of FED announcement or option expiration day...too many players in the market go to the sidelines or change tactics. Anyways, I'm basically a freak when comes to efficiency...control...perfectionism...and preservation of energy. I use to have unconventional methods for picking up on women...I won't go into those, but I will add my observations of most of my friends approach to women...walk up to as many as 20 or 30 drunk women in a bar and ask them to go home with them. Many times this worked for them, so was it a success because they did get laid...or was it a failure because they got rejected 20 times before it worked? Of course, they saw it as a complete success...orgasm and all! All that rejection was a waste in my opinion...and the fact there were nights they got nothing except 30 rejections! I remember in the movie "A Beautiful Mind" that John Nash expressed a concept about how to approach women in a bar, don't remember the details though. Good trading to you!

 

[J_Smith]

That's so intense...hearing what you went through during surgery...glad you got through it! I'm kinda blown away with the fact you have a trading staff and can trade up to 40 trades an hour. To be efficient with that many trades is crazy. I don't like to say this...because it brings out hostility and disbelief...but I frequently go several weeks without a loss during the year, but I only make 1-2 trades a day. Some weeks I take days off because of FED announcement or option expiration day...too many players in the market go to the sidelines or change tactics. Anyways, I'm basically a freak when comes to efficiency...control...perfectionism...and preservation of energy. I use to have unconventional methods for picking up on women...I won't go into those, but I will add my observations of most of my friends approach to women...walk up to as many as 20 or 30 drunk women in a bar and ask them to go home with them. Many times this worked for them, so was it a success because they did get laid...or was it a failure because they got rejected 20 times before it worked? Of course, they saw it as a complete success...orgasm and all! All that rejection was a waste in my opinion...and the fact there were nights they got nothing except 30 rejections! I remember in the movie "A Beautiful Mind" that John Nash expressed a concept about how to approach women in a bar, don't remember the details though. Good trading to you!

you speak a word..which not absurd
is but a drive..keep all alive
without it so..we would not grow
to see the things..that nature brings

in the past..when most did fast
the word was sin..no speak with kin
some in places..did hide their faces
behind the cross..with thoughts of loss

so many small..would not grow tall
from acts so vile..behind false smile
hard to be sold..if parents told
the child was beast..not the priest!!!!!

it goes to show..what few did know
their brain so thick..beat child with stick
child done naut..but told the thought
as mind on fire..from priests desire

the sad part be..covered up you see
for all those years..children in tears
it goes to show..what you don't know
so best to teach..ignore who preach

religion be..a curse you see
evolved from when..there was no pen
the few with power..saw chance to flower
and grow so tall..keep masses small

to think a dad..could be so mad
to beat his own..for sake of throne
it goes to show..that what you know
is not the best..and must be test

the mind it be..like sponge you see
it soaks up all..keeping you small
so squeeze it dry..open your eye
forget all known..care for YOUR OWN!

J_S

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Still doing well with average down, actually it's getting better day by day,

Unlikely to succeed.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

I don't rely on trend neither.

All traders rely on trend. In order to make money, prices must trend.

 

[BONECRUSHER]

All traders rely on trend. In order to make money, prices must trend.

Semantics? Not all rises in price is an uptrend...not all declines in price is a downtrend...degree is issue? Do scalpers need a trend? If price spikes briefly because of one player unloading a position...is that a trend?