The TREND is your friend.. The biggest lie ever!

[J_Smith]

When you plot a ES 500 vol chart,
You can see tiny square forming.
Usually they are truly good S/R.
Hence you can risk 3-4 ticks.
If you catch the break out.

ESxxDT

ESxxDB

what you see..might not be
no way to know..what interest show
they speak of cot..but matter not
if trade is quick..and right the pick

so how this trend..it be your friend
for sure it be..same you as me
what matter so..is how one know
to look at chart..and be bit smart

the chart do show..where price did go
it can not lie..as sun in sky
so when you look..forget the book
and think of place..that start the race

a fool you see..will look with glee
add many thing..no money bring
reason be clear..as most do fear
the thought of lose..and feeling blues

to make the cash..do not be rash
wait for the time..fore risking dime
if time not known..then must be shown
for one thing sure..time is the cure

now time can be..but one of three
no other way..whatever one say
when it do show..the chart is so
the past is now..let's milk the cow

the milk do fall..from tits so small
but udder full..like bags of wool
so suck real slow..no biting so
as cow might kick..beneath your dick

J_S

 

[tt.texantrader]

But now that you ask what I did. Here are my trades, way beyond 50 points. Sorry that I hurt your ego. LOL

LOL... you're an idiot. I don't see any trades. I even made sure to emphasize what you wrote above. What I see is more hindsight squiggles on the chart. You think my ego is going to be hurt by you drawing squiggles on a chart? Jesus... I can't believe that you actually expect anyone to think that your squiggles have any value.

 

[K-Pia]

ESxxDT

ESxxDB

what you see..might not be
no way to know..what interest show
they speak of cot..but matter not
if trade is quick..and right the pick

so how this trend..it be your friend
for sure it be..same you as me
what matter so..is how one know
to look at chart..and be bit smart

the chart do show..where price did go
it can not lie..as sun in sky
so when you look..forget the book
and think of place..that start the race

a fool you see..will look with glee
add many thing..no money bring
reason be clear..as most do fear
the thought of lose..and feeling blues

to make the cash..do not be rash
wait for the time..fore risking dime
if time not known..then must be shown
for one thing sure..time is the cure

now time can be..but one of three
no other way..whatever one say
when it do show..the chart is so
the past is now..let's milk the cow

the milk do fall..from tits so small
but udder full..like bags of wool
so suck real slow..no biting so
as cow might kick..beneath your dick

J_S

"whatever one say" -> whatsoever ?
Or ... who cares one say.

 

[I Know You]

I would love to turn those 95% losers into a "reversed" setup method for 95% winners..but as mutual veterans of the markets, you know and I know that isn't as easy as it sounds. I definitely would try to figure something out..kinda an obsession of mine..or maybe I'm just hard headed!

Impossible to reverse own decisions. Have you looked into situations that create a losing equity curve? It's either multiple losses that offset gains and/or staying with a losing position (hoping it reverses).

Multiple losses can only be offset by bigger gains, but you have to be able to hold a position. It is ultra important to learn to hold based on longer time frames like daily chart. That's where 'trend is your friend' will be of benefit, as price oscillates it mostly progresses in direction set by longer time frames.

 

[Handle123]

Before my last break from trading, which was for bout 4 years ago, I was all about 500 to 2K per day, and, all I will say now is fuck that shite

What I am doing now, is targeting between 100 to 200 a day, for bout 1-2 hours work max, sometimes will make more, sometimes less, sometimes a small loss, but anything over 500 at the end of every week is OK for me.

I might sit down for the open sometime, but as of now it does not bother me.

ES options were catching me out, making a bit but losing most back when trading current week options, so I have dropped ES options completely and now just trading ES, nothing else at the moment, not even VXX or XIV.

Have not had one loser on ES in last few weeks, but I know that will not last, and I would actually prefer to be losing a small bit, believe it or not, as I know how it works - being there and done that.

The multi monitor setup in garage will help, as I find 2 screens are not enough, and I don't like switching between tabs when a trade might only last less than 30 sec to 2 min at times.

I have found recently that the trend really is your friend, but you must look for him the right way, as it can be hard to see him at times, especially when your mind is wandering and thinking bout stupid things that have no relation to price movements, what so ever!

J_S

Six plus years ago, it was all about making the most profits and damn the losses. In 2010, I had brain surgery, wild, the surgeons went up through nostrils(they use to remove nose before) then go up in nasal cavity as I had golf size tumor, I died twice on the table, when I eventually woke up from that, I swear I had out of the body experience during one of the dead occurrences. Tough to explain what happened...when I got home, I completely revamped my day trading and went in the direction of trading risk instead of price. From then on, my trading did a 180 degrees on what I wanted to do in day trading and other forms of trading. I changed from thinking of profits to losing percentages, it never dawned on me to forget about profits and concentrate on comparisons of risk during the trade based only on the original entry, let the ave down entries follow leader of the original entry.

It happens sparingly to have a week with no losses, but truly very hard for me to do as I take an abundance of signals in a week, if I took and quit at 6 points based on original signals, I'd probably have ten a year of no losses, cause 6 points can be either 2 or 3 trades in a day, but some days am taking up to 40 trades in hour, going to have losses, usually from reversing into something else. Sometimes I get three losses in a row from this but not full losses, and I am concentrating so hard, have no idea till after I had three losses in a row, LOL.

If the pre-fifteen minutes had come from a move of 7-10 points down and for fifteen minutes it is making support area, if opening bar moving up, I am in on long side and most of the time get that 2-3 points.

Congrats on no losses.

I use two 19" laptops, one for charting and other have 12 Domes, LOL, all color coded, each signal has it's own color. Staff made me Domes that are very narrow and programmed, talks to me of possibilities that is happening, something new we been working on, my memory no longer what it use to be.

I use one bar delay on trend, so I go by whatever the bar before was as far as trend, so there are times when it is obvious by the world that trend has changed on current bar, but Trading Plan has trend of bar before, surprisingly how often staying in works well, but when one thinks about it, clear trend change often has retracement almost immediately cause trend change is often hitting opposing protective stops which cause market to go further and retracement generally has to happen.

I would love to turn those 95% losers into a "reversed" setup method for 95% winners..but as mutual veterans of the markets, you know and I know that isn't as easy as it sounds. I definitely would try to figure something out..kinda an obsession of mine..or maybe I'm just hard headed!

ROFLMAO, I have spend light years back testing to do the opposite, keep thinking maybe next year...But I have figured out a few things from keeping that journal that are useful. When "I just know I should skip the targets as this trade going to the moon" that means get out RIGHT NOW. And when the pain is hurting my brain and I NEED to get out to get rid of brain pain even though price not gotten to my mental stop, stand up and do a few Jumping jacks, market reverses and I get plus one tick.

I am constantly reminded of George Constantza of Seigfeld show where George does complete opposite with women and other areas of his life, and he becomes changed man, with women and lands a job with the Yankees after he chewed out George Steinbrenner.......My Trading Pan is so much smarter than I am.

 

[J_Smith]

Six plus years ago, it was all about making the most profits and damn the losses. In 2010, I had brain surgery, wild, the surgeons went up through nostrils(they use to remove nose before) then go up in nasal cavity as I had golf size tumor, I died twice on the table, when I eventually woke up from that, I swear I had out of the body experience during one of the dead occurrences. Tough to explain what happened...when I got home, I completely revamped my day trading and went in the direction of trading risk instead of price. From then on, my trading did a 180 degrees on what I wanted to do in day trading and other forms of trading. I changed from thinking of profits to losing percentages, it never dawned on me to forget about profits and concentrate on comparisons of risk during the trade based only on the original entry, let the ave down entries follow leader of the original entry.

It happens sparingly to have a week with no losses, but truly very hard for me to do as I take an abundance of signals in a week, if I took and quit at 6 points based on original signals, I'd probably have ten a year of no losses, cause 6 points can be either 2 or 3 trades in a day, but some days am taking up to 40 trades in hour, going to have losses, usually from reversing into something else. Sometimes I get three losses in a row from this but not full losses, and I am concentrating so hard, have no idea till after I had three losses in a row, LOL.

If the pre-fifteen minutes had come from a move of 7-10 points down and for fifteen minutes it is making support area, if opening bar moving up, I am in on long side and most of the time get that 2-3 points.

Congrats on no losses.

I use two 19" laptops, one for charting and other have 12 Domes, LOL, all color coded, each signal has it's own color. Staff made me Domes that are very narrow and programmed, talks to me of possibilities that is happening, something new we been working on, my memory no longer what it use to be.

I use one bar delay on trend, so I go by whatever the bar before was as far as trend, so there are times when it is obvious by the world that trend has changed on current bar, but Trading Plan has trend of bar before, surprisingly how often staying in works well, but when one thinks about it, clear trend change often has retracement almost immediately cause trend change is often hitting opposing protective stops which cause market to go further and retracement generally has to happen.



ROFLMAO, I have spend light years back testing to do the opposite, keep thinking maybe next year...But I have figured out a few things from keeping that journal that are useful. When "I just know I should skip the targets as this trade going to the moon" that means get out RIGHT NOW. And when the pain is hurting my brain and I NEED to get out to get rid of brain pain even though price not gotten to my mental stop, stand up and do a few Jumping jacks, market reverses and I get plus one tick.

I am constantly reminded of George Constantza of Seigfeld show where George does complete opposite with women and other areas of his life, and he becomes changed man, with women and lands a job with the Yankees after he chewed out George Steinbrenner.......My Trading Pan is so much smarter than I am.

Shaperio Iteration

I wonder how many will find the best meaning!

J_S

 

[TradersForTrump]

I think, in answer to the OP, that he is right in terms of the title.

But in terms of the substance, I would say he is focusing too much on price action.

Your real friend has NOTHING to do with price action -- your real friend is discipline and sound money management, position sizing etc

 

[Sergio77]

Why do people take trading strategies like trend following which show a historically proven relevance over time periods of 6-18 months (read: long-term trading) in intra-day trading? And then they whine "Oh but it doesn't work"

This is not the only insanity in trading. Intraday trends are random, long daily trends are due to deterministic component. In stocks due to dividend payouts and rebalancing of indexes.

 

[J_Smith]

This is not the only insanity in trading. Intraday trends are random, long daily trends are due to deterministic component. In stocks due to dividend payouts and rebalancing of indexes.

Intraday can mean " within the previous day's range", but for this reply we will take it as meaning "daily".

Daily trends are not random, in fact, at times they are very predictable, which enable a trader to make low risk entries, which is the essence of good trading.

Text book rubbish is just that, rubbish, put out there for the masses, to keep them in the dark!

Last Thu/Friday, a talking head on Bloomberg, was asked by nice lady in a dress, "what do you think is current bias", to which he replied "down".

This tipped me off, drop after NFP and then a rally into the 50 level, which if I had been sitting down for, instead of gardening, would have resulted in a nice few McDonald's burgers!

There is always a reason, things do not happen by chance, no matter what academic asshole might state otherwise - they are nothing but...

"so many asses laden with books"

Montaigne..1587..Of The Education Of Children

J_S

 

[profitlocker]

People always forget about the opportunity cost of longer term positions. If high volatility isn't present within the first hour of my intraday entry, I don't want any part of it. Plenty of good setups for a smart daytrader. Based on my research, with leverage factored in, intraday trading pays more