The TREND is your friend.. The biggest lie ever!

[zbestoch]

I heard DBPheonix the other day say that if someone hasn't 'got it' within 6 MONTHS they should quit

I wonder how long it took DBPheonix.

 

[Eddiemorra]

I took years and years on my own. But I have seen a decent number of guys get this quickly - in as little as four to six weeks, in some cases. All but one of those, however, received their training with a prop trading outfit whose owner has long since retired and dissolved the fund.

I find it interesting to go through the post history of people to get an idea of their journey.
There's someone on trade2win who had a few journals and was a regular poster, and was clearly struggling for a number of years.
He took a short break from posting, and when he came back, he appeared to have completely 'cracked it'.
I gather that in that short time period, someone with an edge shared certain information with him in private that completely transformed his trading. He admitted he'd never have been able to 'work it out' on his own.
So yes, I think if you're lucky enough to have someone show you how to do it (which I gather will never ben discussed in public on a forum) then one could 'learn' could become profitable in a ver very short period of time at a guess.
Just need to hope there's more nice people out their willing to help!! lol

I wonder how long it took DBPheonix.

According to lots of posters, he still hasn't. I have no idea if that's true or not. No way of knowing from his posts.
What I do know is that if you go through his posts from a decade ago on traderslab and trade2win, he seemed to be switching between all kinds of methods. Using an ADX trend following method for example, so if we assume that during the time he was switching methods he wasn't profitable (as why would someone change their method so much if it was working) then it's fair to say that it took him a fair few years!

 

[motif]

Never quit your dream

 

[i am nobody]

These statements about how long it takes don't make sense because they are incomplete. Nobody tells how much they make and also not the size of their trading. They only say they make money.

A few hypothetical examples:

• somebody became succesful in 6 weeks: he makes 2% a year
• somebody became succesful in 60 weeks: he makes 200% a year
• somebody became succesful in 6 weeks: he makes $1000 a year
• somebody became succesful in 60 weeks: he makes $1,000,000 a year

Four different statements. Which one will be yours in future? Nobody can tell.
Learning curves can be very different and results too. You can even start slow but end very performing, or the opposite, quick start and then nothing anymore.

 

[Redneck]

These statements about how long it takes don't make sense because they are incomplete.

Nobody tells how much they make and also not the size of their trading.

They only say they make money.

Not only this ^

But these statements are ego based..., and completely discount how personalized trading is


RN

 

[Redneck]

Never quit your dream

Or....,

Set a goal

Identify the steps necessary to achieve that goal

Get to the nut cuttin

===============

No doubt dreams are important - but often..., are not set in stone

RN

 

[i am nobody]

Never quit your dream

Unless you are sure it will always stay a dream. Dreamers should be realistic too.

 

[motif]

Right, so figure out what your doing wrong and eliminate your mistakes...go on from there

 

[zbestoch]

if we assume that during the time he was switching methods he wasn't profitable (as why would someone change their method so much if it was working) then it's fair to say that it took him a fair few years!

Sounds like a fair conclusion as drawn from your observation. When I was not where I wanted to be, I changed methods, indicators, trading instruments, time frames, chart types, even brokers very often. Having settled down, nothing changes any longer except that I do find myself changing the background and line colors on my charts from time to time. My approach is the same whether I am taking a long-term position, a short-term swing trade position, or a day trade. I do run some automated systems, and that is where I play around and experiment. However, in spite of the play and experimentation, it all involves my attempt to find new ways to automate the same handful of set ups.

 

[Handle123]

A trend, to me, is any exploitable move in any direction. Because there are trends in many different timeframes you should optimize your trend by using that one that gives you maximum return with minimum of trades. If you have another definition you will miss a lot of profits. Because you will consider many of my trends not as trends, you will skip them and also skip their profit potential.

You first have to find trends. If you find them you also know what is not a trend (the part that is left as not trending). So you always do study every part of the market. The non trending part is not interesting if you can catch the trends, because the profits from the trends are much better from the point of view of risk/reward. The chart I showed confirms clearly my point, although I must admit that it was an extreme favorable sample.
Mathematically it is impossible to take more points from non trending markets then from trending ones.Just because they are non trending, which means they have no direction and jump up and down. Whereas a trend takes a big move in one direction and the retracements are smaller.
In trending markets you can take 10-30 points profits a day in the ES. Trading non trending you will take maybe 1-2 points in every trade. You will need at least 5-10 times more trades with each time commission and slippage. And on top of that the risk of having a losing trade is much bigger as the market does not trend.
If you find a good system to see the trend, your system is already finished for 75%. It is the most difficult part, but also the one that brings the profits. What is left to do is finding good entries and exits. Much easier than finding a good trendfinder.

I started trading S&P500 30 years ago, I decided to specialize trading chop, my first $10k day was a three point range day and two lots when S&P500 was $500 a point, made six trades trading range. I traded chop till seven years ago when I spotted couple trend signals where I could scalp 8-9 ticks consistently as back testing longer profits winning percentages went down. So I knew most of the time when price should reverse, so I added rules to concentrate early in beginning of new trends to add to bottom line and trade much less time. I found more ways to lower losing percentages cause using time stops. As losing percentages dropped means one thing to me, add more volume when price went against position and risk less and more possible gain.

I don't look at points per day as you do cause I can't run volume easily as first 60-75 minutes, plus I simple don't want to sit here. The worst percentages for me are trend trades often having the greatest risk, so we have difference of opinions and or study. Really comes to money, doesn't it? How much an hour are you making? Which minutes pay the most? Right? Why trade all day when you can trade much less then go do anything else? It totally different with automation, it going like 23 hours a day over 5 full days, but it comes down to trading smart manually.