the trend is up, market has bottomed.

Originally posted by Runningbear
I simply compare the percentage movements up or down. The S&P generally moves about 40% of the NASDAQs daily volitility. Yet at the bottom they were about par which is quite rare.

Runningbear
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So, you just observe? I think I'll try something like making a ratio and then calculating 8 or 10 bar rate-of-change. That might be helpful at such an important juncture. (Might indicate something about "congestion before continuation"?)
Tks.
 
The put/call ratio recently reached a higher high than the Sept. low numbers. Generally a pretty good indicator of at least a temporary bottom.
 
anyone check out realmoney today?

Cramer is trying to justify Friday's action as a sign of a bottom (instead of just smart short sellers saying screw it and going to the beach).

Gary B Smith, who I normally halfway respect give or take, is giving in to his hoping urges and teasing readers with a guruvision bottom call also.

My point is, do you know how many investors read those guys?

Do you know how many investors read guys just like them?

I don't want to say all the old countertrend/reversal tools need to be thrown out the window, but....when everybody and their brother knows the basic reversal indicators and nobody wants to throw in the towel, it definitely ain't the same game. The fact that almost all the investors still paying attention are trying to game a bottom changes the game completely imho, to the point where old predictive tools are essentially coinflip. Not to mention the macro sucks no matter how bullish short term opinion may get.

Maybe we get a tradable bottom here maybe we don't, but I suspect a fortune teller would have as good a shot as anyone in making the call.
 
thats what you said predicted..... lets just see how good you are at making predictions...

dont know what charts you look at but mine seem to be pointing straight DOWN....so I dont get it.. I must be missing something
 
I'm buying QQQ calls.

for July expiration I'm buying 27 and 28
for August expiration I'm buying 29, 30, 31

I'm averaging in as they fall, so it's not practical to state the prices.
 
what is really messing everything up are these accounting scandals. If we didn't have that factor I think we would have had a nice oversold rally already; it seemed like one was about to happen before the worldcom news.

But, the accounting scandals are real and there will probably be a lot more of them, since many companies managed their earnings over the past few years to keep up with the joneses and keep beating earnings estimates by a penny. If you think about it, it just isn't natural for a company to beat by a penny on a consistent basis. It shows that there was reverse engineering of the earnings. They started out with the accounting goal of beating earnings by a penny and worked backwards.
 
Not picking on you, but why in the heck buy calls in a down market in the first place. You're losing time premium daily, and not only do you have to be "right" you have to be "really, really, right" to make any money.

I've enjoyed your exhuberent enthusiasm for the next "bull run" ....and who know, it may come some day....but in the meantime that call money just keeps melting away. Why not sell puts, have the decay in your favor (I know, less risk, but if you're so sure...what the heck). I'm not suggesting any changes to your trading, just making comments. In any case, I wish you the best....

Bull or Bear, as long as the market moves, we're happy!!

Don
 
Selling options doesn't give the same return that buy them does. Dont get me wrong, I do use this strategy, but I only sell covered options.

Buying options can give much higher returns than selling. However, it does require you to be fairly accurate with your timing, as you noted.

The main thing to consider when buying options is to only use a small portion of capital.
 
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