the trend is up, market has bottomed.

when we get a new weekly high, possibly monday, it will be a confirmation for the rally.

time for an elliot wave. :p


ps. theres also a very important divergence between the NDX and the INDU. I'm not sure what it means yet, but it could be the start of a new bull market. :eek:

let the flaming begin. :D
 
Though I'm fundamentally VERY bearish, this week's lows should be played as an intermediate bottom:
a. Several indices held major neckline support
b. "2 Weekly doji at big support" is compelling
c. My proprietary Cum Vol RSI gives BUY signal (hard to fake out)
If the lows of this week are retested, I'd load the boat (with stop, of course). Advise caution with short tries.:D
 
No, what made me pull the trigger was the complete absence of hope about the market. People everywhere saying that no stock is safe. That they're ready to throw in the towel, that investors have been betrayed, that executives can’t be trusted, that they're greedy and shameful, that corporate financials can’t be trusted, that U.S. stocks are in freefall, that foreigners are just beginning to sell U.S. stocks because the dollar is weaker.
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<a href="http://money.msn.com/content/p24708.asp">Source.</a>


Late last week, I felt myself, in a flash, getting bearish. It seemed like the same mood of 'this market is really doomed' that was influencing others came to influence me, too.

And I sensed that I should be careful on my shorts and look for an opportunity to fade that 'flash.' In that place, at that time, it seemed wise.

This put me on my guard and helped me remain circumspect and nimble.
 
Originally posted by Runningbear
You will notice when the volatility in the NASDAQ falls in comparison to its usual movement against the S&P, it tends to be a warning of a trend reversal. Tuesday morning was such a case. It normally exhibits twice the volatility as the S&P but monday the % down move on each was about the same. Showing the market that it just wasn't going to get any lower

I have a feeling we will see a nice big rally from here. Maybe lasting a week or two. Everyone will call a new bull and then more bad news will start to emerge sending the indexes lower again.



Runningbear
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Intuitively, sounds right. And, might I add, one of the more intelligent posts to this thread.

What tool(s) do you use to measure "relative volatility"?
Tks,
gnome
 
Originally posted by gnome

quote:

Originally posted by Runningbear
You will notice when the volatility in the NASDAQ falls in comparison to its usual movement against the S&P, it tends to be a warning of a trend reversal.
Runningbear

sounds right. And, might I add, one of the more intelligent posts to this thread.

What tool(s) do you use to measure "relative volatility"?
Tks,
gnome
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deja vu, check this out

Originally posted by super_ego
<b>How a trend starts:</b>

Obviously you have to be able to spot a bottom as it is taking shape. The way that a bottom gives itself away is the INCREASE IN VOLATILITY IN QQQ'S. This is the "whipping" action that is seen in the QQQ's before a powerful up-day is displayed (usually with a gap up and early morning volatility, intraday).
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I simply compare the percentage movements up or down. The S&P generally moves about 40% of the NASDAQs daily volitility. Yet at the bottom they were about par which is quite rare.

Runningbear
 
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