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the trend is up, market has bottomed.
- Thread starter lundy
- Start date
Originally posted by Commisso
That is like saying a Daily Race Form will predict the outcome of the Kentucky Derby...
Might as well consult the I Ching or a crystal ball if you need something to make the uncertainty involved a little more bearable...
Charts will NEVER predict the future... They can only tell what the next probable direction will be...
Great traders do not make "predictions" they listen to the markets and play when the odds are stacked in thier favor...
PEACE
Commisso
Originally posted by rs7
And trends, or more accurately, repetitive events, seem to work so well in trading. I said something to the effect that you need to watch for common traits in what works....well I can't begin to remember all of the repetitive trends that I noticed in the stock market. This has made me a lot of money. And saved me from losing a lot of money.
what he said
lundy just expresses his feelings. He is allowed to do that even if he is completely wrong. what scares me is that if he is really doing the things he is doing he is risking total blowout.
Originally posted by dotslashfuture
lundy just expresses his feelings. He is allowed to do that even if he is completely wrong. what scares me is that if he is really doing the things he is doing he is risking total blowout.
Might be more of a danger if he were selling puts or something... unless he's really devoting a huge percentage of his capital to his prediction. He can answer for himself, if he likes.
What has never ceased to amaze me, since before the big top to the present, is how inexorably and ineluctably the market seems to call forth new volunteers to lead the charge into no-bull's land against the massed bear pillboxes and machine gun nests... Not that there haven't been some huge, extended bull moves to trade, but, overall, it's fair to observe that rarely have so many given so much for so little... so often...
quote:
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Originally posted by Commisso
That is like saying a Daily Race Form will predict the outcome of the Kentucky Derby...
Might as well consult the I Ching or a crystal ball if you need something to make the uncertainty involved a little more bearable...
Charts will NEVER predict the future... They can only tell what the next probable direction will be...
Great traders do not make "predictions" they listen to the markets and play when the odds are stacked in thier favor...
PEACE
Commisso
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quote:
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Originally posted by rs7
And trends, or more accurately, repetitive events, seem to work so well in trading. I said something to the effect that you need to watch for common traits in what works....well I can't begin to remember all of the repetitive trends that I noticed in the stock market. This has made me a lot of money. And saved me from losing a lot of money.
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Commisso, rs7
Of course a chart cannot predict the future. A chart also can't post to this forum. However, a person using a chart can find a repetitive event that gives him the odds to "predict" that the next time the event happens, he can be sure of the outcome.
All I have done is found repetitive events or patterns in the charts. I don't have a crystal ball, I look at the exact same thing you do - a chart. To say that one cannot use a pattern to predict the outcome is to say that technical analysis is useless.
Even arbitrage requires one to place some faith in repetitive events. Even so called market neutrality places faith in the fact that others have used that philosophy and profited. This placing of faith is a prediction. The brain predicts that if you repeat what has been proven, you will get the same outcome, even if you aren't thinking in terms of prediction.
In baseball, to catch a high ball, you must predict where it will fall. Neutrality just doesn't work.
As i've said before, it's all about statistics, ballz, and luck.
Statistics is the repetitive event or pattern.
Ballz are needed for action.
And luck so that your action isn't one of the 15% that don't actually repeat; or it breaks the pattern.
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Originally posted by Commisso
That is like saying a Daily Race Form will predict the outcome of the Kentucky Derby...
Might as well consult the I Ching or a crystal ball if you need something to make the uncertainty involved a little more bearable...
Charts will NEVER predict the future... They can only tell what the next probable direction will be...
Great traders do not make "predictions" they listen to the markets and play when the odds are stacked in thier favor...
PEACE
Commisso
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quote:
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Originally posted by rs7
And trends, or more accurately, repetitive events, seem to work so well in trading. I said something to the effect that you need to watch for common traits in what works....well I can't begin to remember all of the repetitive trends that I noticed in the stock market. This has made me a lot of money. And saved me from losing a lot of money.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Commisso, rs7
Of course a chart cannot predict the future. A chart also can't post to this forum. However, a person using a chart can find a repetitive event that gives him the odds to "predict" that the next time the event happens, he can be sure of the outcome.
All I have done is found repetitive events or patterns in the charts. I don't have a crystal ball, I look at the exact same thing you do - a chart. To say that one cannot use a pattern to predict the outcome is to say that technical analysis is useless.
Even arbitrage requires one to place some faith in repetitive events. Even so called market neutrality places faith in the fact that others have used that philosophy and profited. This placing of faith is a prediction. The brain predicts that if you repeat what has been proven, you will get the same outcome, even if you aren't thinking in terms of prediction.
In baseball, to catch a high ball, you must predict where it will fall. Neutrality just doesn't work.
As i've said before, it's all about statistics, ballz, and luck.
Statistics is the repetitive event or pattern.
Ballz are needed for action.
And luck so that your action isn't one of the 15% that don't actually repeat; or it breaks the pattern.
How's this for a predictive trend. It's yeilded me about 8% on the Nasdaq since the 22nd of June.
When Lundy is bullish, stay short.
Runninngbear
When Lundy is bullish, stay short.
Runninngbear
Prediction is the wrong word. Ones level of conviction would have to be too high in each trade to justify the usage of the word prediction. So rarely are things set up such that a trader's level of conviction are this high.
In baseball, to catch a high ball, you must predict where it will fall. Neutrality just doesn't work.
I think the analogy of catching a high fly ball in baseball is a good one. However, the conclusion I draw from this example is a bit different that what Lundy draws.
In baseball when you are playing outfield, you pay attention to each swing of the bat, the height of the pitch, whether it is inside/outside/down the middle, the speed of the pitch, the trajectory of the swing, and the likely angle that the ball will come off the bat. So at the moment you hear the crack of the bat you instinctively know which way to run: left, right, forward or backward. However to say catching a fly ball is as simple as making a prediction then running right to the spot where the ball will come down is simply not true.
During the flight of the ball you, the outfielder must zone in on the ball's ultimate destination by making hundreds of micro corrections. You have to take into account the wind, the height of the ball's flight, its relative traveling speed, and the distance you have to run. If you overshoot you need to correct mid-stride and make split second adjustments. You have to run while keeping your eye on the ball at all times. You have to know where the wall is, how far you are from out of bounds, where the other players are, whether you need to call off another player and ultimately whether you need to catch the ball in your breadbasket, dive or pull up short and let the ball fall in to protect an extra base hit, or any number of variations. And as you run to make the final few strides, you run on your tiptoes so that you maintain a level body height while running so that you can perfectly see the ball into your glove. If you take your eye off the ball for even a split second as you're abou to catch the ball you will probably drop the ball and the official scorer will record an E next to your name.
If you've watched Andrew Jones of the Atlanta Braves play center field you would think that being an outfielder is easy. Jones makes it look easy as he lazily one-hands the ball. But that is simply because he reacts so quickly that making the ultimate catch is easy because he made all those micro corrections so rapidly and effortlessly that he almost has time to read the newspaper before catching the ball.
I think the same thing applies to trading in many ways. Unless you put on a position and simultaneously place a stop and a profit target and then walk away, your trading is probably more like catching a fly ball than simply making a prediction and checking back after x period of time to see if you were right. Trade management is really the essence of trading IMO. "Minding the boiling pot" is way up there on the list of things that are important for a trader, but then so is "not overseasoning the soup".