the trend is up, market has bottomed.
- Thread starter lundy
- Start date
this market is accelerating. it ain't a bull rally, it's a correction of the down trend. expect it to resume (the down trend).
One reaction does not make a trend reversal. We had many of these reactions since january.
none lasted a week (if memory serves).
If it accelerates up more next week, it will just be even more obvious.
this does not look like an intermediate bottom. It would not be that steep.
not bottom before we test it again.
And, by the way, a retest of a intermediate bottom does not happen 48 hours after the low ! So be sure, we did NOT retest anything yet.
probability : very short term low established. hardly an short term low, hardly an intermediate low.
I already hear calls and rumors of a july rally.. guess what will happen
tntneo
One reaction does not make a trend reversal. We had many of these reactions since january.
none lasted a week (if memory serves).
If it accelerates up more next week, it will just be even more obvious.
this does not look like an intermediate bottom. It would not be that steep.
not bottom before we test it again.
And, by the way, a retest of a intermediate bottom does not happen 48 hours after the low ! So be sure, we did NOT retest anything yet.
probability : very short term low established. hardly an short term low, hardly an intermediate low.
I already hear calls and rumors of a july rally.. guess what will happen
tntneo
We've got follow through to the upside and it looks like we are headed for 1550 on the nasdaq composite. Gold stocks are looking risky, there is still a good negative correlation with the XAU and the nasdaq.
yeah dis, I don't doubt it. In the longer term things look crappy for stocks, but it has come out that the fed is buying stock index futures on dips like the wcom dip ( yes, thats right stock index futures, i didn't beleive it the first time I heard it. Look on the thread titled "plunge protection team" to learn more. ). Also it is very hard to find a nice easy short right now due to oversold conditions in most sectors. I know the things I would like to short are all either oversold are in the middle of trading ranges where I don't dare touch them going either way. My only position is a straddle on QLGC so I'm not biased by being long.
Originally posted by chasinfla
it's called 'cash on the sidelines.' It's a prerequisite for the next bull market.
Well, that is the argument that I have heard for a few years, but here is the thing about the "cash" that is kinda sketchy...In my opinion, the real "squeeze" in this market now is that the Fed and the powers that be, are basically forcing investors to put money to work in the market, at some point, against their will...How can one possibly do anything earning 2% on their money...I would be very interested to see what the risk free rate of return on t-bills was during the previous major recessions...At least back in the late 1970's-early 1980's, people had an alternative, one I am certain the powers that be did not like, with t-bills returning double digits...Now, that this money is barely earning a penny, all the pension funds are massively screwed because they are forced to try and game the stock market, insurers are screwed because they cannot earn a damn thing on their premiums and hence, the inflation beast is out there looming and devouring the unsuspecting...
How many times in the past few months I have read articles about companies, sole proprietors, doctors, other entrepreneurs who are either moving their business or getting railroaded into paying 20-100% increases in their premiums as a result of 9/11 and the insurance companies inability to earn anything on their investments...So, the low interest rates are really not doing a damn thing for anyone...and instead of giving corporations more access to capital, lenders are beginning to quake in their boots as they see the big dogs going down in a fit of fraudulent earnings restatements and they know they are going to default on their debts unless these same lenders pony up more money to keep them going...I don't think anyone could have imagined a more "Perfect Storm" for a financial catastrophe than this one...
And, at some point, all of that cash on the sidelines will disappear as more and more people who had initially taken their money out of the financial markets and put it into cash will actually NEED this cash just to pay off their debts, their higher property taxes, their higher insurance rates, their higher education costs, their monthly bills as they lose their jobs, bonusses, raises, etc...This cash is going to disappear, it is only a matter of time...