the trend is up, market has bottomed.

Originally posted by Don Bright


Some of the discussion is simply semantics, but since I don't believe in actual market predictions (prior to the facts) for making cosistent money, I like to point out how I might look at the same situation.

Where will the market close today, and what do you think will happen tomorrow. And, no "if if closes up, then it will..." stuff....let me know what you really think...this costs us nothing.
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I use prediction all the time to make consistent money. I don't always get every prediction right, but i certainly have enough information to make consistent money.

here was my "prediction" from yesterday.

Originally posted by lundy
if tomorrow gaps up, there will be no closure. If it gaps down, there will be closure.

either way, I will fade the first move of the day.

if it gaps up and first move is down, I will buy.

The reason why is because the first move will be small, and the second move will be where the market closes.
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Do you still think the market can't be predicted. If so, is this just a bizzarre coincidence?
 
Originally posted by lundy


Do you still think the market can't be predicted. If so, is this just a bizzarre coincidence?
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I'll bet you are really George Soros and you make the market do what you want and you play around here to keep yourself amused.:p
 
Originally posted by chasinfla


I'll bet you are really George Soros and you make the market do what you want and you play around here to keep yourself amused.:p
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lundy really is THE KING! Hail Lundy!
Now if he could just accept that the moon is closer to the earth than the sun is......:D
By the way, Lundy....great call!!! I went with you long over this past weekend...worked out well. Should have held longer!
 
I have the gap and direction information every day at the close.

Sure it is made up of if/thens, but that doesn't mean anything.

WD Gann made very similar types of predictions using if/thens. For example he would say something like "if xyz goes to 54 then it will fall to 39 before hitting 60."

It's a prediction and money can be made if it's correct.

I'm still peicing together the puzzle. When i've put all the peices together, there will be no need for if/thens, because I will have all the information.
 
no I'm not George Soros, and I wouldn't want to be him.

If you play with size, it would be very hard to have a prediction come true because your size affects the outcome. You'd have to play in macro time frames. I trade under 1 million, so there is little effect.

rs7, glad you banked. I only banked cause I doubled down (more like quadrupled) on that big gap down. I'm still in it for the long haul though.

I'm a seller now. I sell a few options on every rise. Hopefully in a few weeks, I will get rid of half my position at even bigger profits.

edit: you can only manipulate a market for so long before someone bigger screws you over. After Soros broke the bank of england, others tried to do similar things. The bank of malaysia made billions doing it. They had an unlimited cash supply, the fed, and they controlled the markets. However, they broke the ethic code of banks (wow they have one?) and the fed eventually screwed them over. They waited till Bank of malaysia was in a big position, and they took the other side while cutting off the cash supply.

they did the same thing to england. It wasn't Soros who broke England, it was the Fed. Soros just did the dirty work.
 
Originally posted by lundy


rs7, glad you banked. I only banked cause I doubled down (more like quadrupled) on that big gap down. I'm still in it for the long haul though.
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I didn't wait that long...actually if you recall, we opened up early. I only had 4 positions...msft, intc, ebay, and jnj...they all opened positive before going south. then bounced later...ebay was a monster monday afternoon.
 
ahh right right. the futures opened high. It was the NDX that gapped down.

I wasn't worried about a gap down, cause I knew it would be closed.
 
lundy just curious, why are you selling your calls, i believe you were loading up the boat on these for the longer term swing, 100-200+ point swing, correct? or has something changed since then? thnx
 
I buy and sell on each rally. This allows me to profit intraday. I will hold at least 3/4 of the position for several hundred points minimum. But the other 1/4, I will sell on strength & buy on weakness.

I haven't sold anything yet. But if we get some real strong up days, I sure will.
 
Wow, I gotta hand it to you on that gap closing after wcom, since you called it before the wcom news. However, I must state that I do not think this is the end of the bear. I trade Qs, and if they get above 29, I'll grant you that you were right and I was wrong. There are too many weights and fears, IMHO.

For anybody foolish enough to trade on my advice, be advised that I am currently trading a trend netrual strategy.
 
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