The Surf Report

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Quote from marketsurfer:

your paitent is being turned into the BIONIC MAN. better, faster and smarter than before--- yes, I am betting on him!!

perhaps getting over your own fear of being wrong and making mistakes would be a good place to start. as i have always stated, position sizing is the key. Its my journal, if you don't get information or entertainment from it, why do you read it?

surf:confused:
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Information? No, sorry. Entertainment? Sometimes.

As for your ubiquitous references to position sizing, that goes without saying. But try not to hide behind your position sizing argument to talk away poorly thought out and overstayed trades. I assume that your repeated references to position sizing during losing trades implies small size. And since small size is a risk averse manner in which to trade, try not to overplay your winning trades too much ("OH YEAH!") because they are, after all, relatively small trades ("position sizing," and all that).

Regardless of what you may believe, I do wish you well. I just wish you'd scale back on the bluster.
 
DRS Tech is looking sweet here for a nibble--by marketsurfer

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your point of view, war has been the one constant driver in the U.S. economy since our inception in 1776. Terms like Military/Industrial Complex and the War Economy are used to describe the apparent interrelationship between the military, wars, and the economy.



Regardless of your political ideology, war creates jobs, innovations, and remains a prime economic driver. It stands to reason that a company involved in supplying the military would be quite steady in these unprecedented volatile times. In fact, the top long term PowerRated stock in all of the market is a military supply company. Our stock spotlight this week is on the 10 rated company DRS Technologies (NYSE:DRS - News).


DRS Technologies is a New Jersey based defense contractor that started business in 1968. They began as a technology company supplying anti-submarine equipment for the U.S. Navy. They have since expanded via acquisitions and innovations into supplying the entire military, including Homeland Security, a broad range of products and high tech equipment. DRS employs over 10,000 people and is a leading company in transforming the military into a high tech force.



Fundamentally, the company is very strong. They just reported record earnings in the fiscal first quarter with a $3.72 billion dollar funded backlog. A 40% increase in net earnings, 12% operating revenues increase and a 29% increase in operating income combined to lead to the firm's top quarter since inception.

Technically, I almost fell out of my chair when I saw how well this company held up during the recent extreme volatility. Yes, priced pulled back slightly on the weekly charts during the market meltdown, but amazingly stayed nicely above the 50 and 200 day Simple Moving Averages bottoming around 70 from an 80 range high. Over the last week or so, the stock has bounced back up to 80 area and looks ripe to break into all time highs any day now.

The 10 long term PowerRating, combined with the technical and fundamental picture makes DRS Technologies a strong candidate for your long term portfolio.
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

I still strongly believe the intervention will result in a huge bull stock market rally to all time highs.

Just because I am struggling with the micro entry/exits timing doesn't invalidate my premise of all time highs by 4.2009. No one can time the market in the microsense with perfection.
Although i try...


surf
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I agree with Surf...The main reason is that a recession, bad news soon will be factored into the market just as rate cuts are. Then any good news will entail the bottom...yes there will be a few up and down days but all negative earnings from our trading house have now been factored in. IBM could come in with a massive loss but we are expecting this anyway arnt we? if they dont its a bonus and a good one! You then have to look to the horizon..
you wont see many firms making much profit this year, did you expect anything else? so once again its factored in...look to the benifits of the bank restructuring...global efforts and so forth...you may find yourself buying not at the very bottom so dont expect to...if you buy 10% from the bottom you have done well if you are a long term investor....i dont think you would want to shot sell this close to a bottom as its too risky..
 
Quote from marketsurfer:

DRS Tech is looking sweet here for a nibble--by marketsurfer

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your point of view, war has been the one constant driver in the U.S. economy since our inception in 1776. Terms like Military/Industrial Complex and the War Economy are used to describe the apparent interrelationship between the military, wars, and the economy.



Regardless of your political ideology, war creates jobs, innovations, and remains a prime economic driver. It stands to reason that a company involved in supplying the military would be quite steady in these unprecedented volatile times. In fact, the top long term PowerRated stock in all of the market is a military supply company. Our stock spotlight this week is on the 10 rated company DRS Technologies (NYSE:DRS - News).


DRS Technologies is a New Jersey based defense contractor that started business in 1968. They began as a technology company supplying anti-submarine equipment for the U.S. Navy. They have since expanded via acquisitions and innovations into supplying the entire military, including Homeland Security, a broad range of products and high tech equipment. DRS employs over 10,000 people and is a leading company in transforming the military into a high tech force.



Fundamentally, the company is very strong. They just reported record earnings in the fiscal first quarter with a $3.72 billion dollar funded backlog. A 40% increase in net earnings, 12% operating revenues increase and a 29% increase in operating income combined to lead to the firm's top quarter since inception.

Technically, I almost fell out of my chair when I saw how well this company held up during the recent extreme volatility. Yes, priced pulled back slightly on the weekly charts during the market meltdown, but amazingly stayed nicely above the 50 and 200 day Simple Moving Averages bottoming around 70 from an 80 range high. Over the last week or so, the stock has bounced back up to 80 area and looks ripe to break into all time highs any day now.

The 10 long term PowerRating, combined with the technical and fundamental picture makes DRS Technologies a strong candidate for your long term portfolio.
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The reason DRS has held up is b/c it's being bought for $81 a share. This merger has been in the works since May.
 
I might be looking too deep here and if all you are saying is that systematic risk hasn’t been explained (well) since investor incentives are difficult to model then I understand. However, to me your post sounds like you’re pointing to an intersection of portfolio and game theory. Therefore, I assume you’re getting at something other than I’ve indicated above. If so, please specify. Thanks guy.
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interesting interpretation, though not what I expected. My point is that modern portfolio theory tries to attain a risk to reward ratio of 1:1, such that in the down markets, the return is zero or better, and during normal times, the portfolio returns the market average or better.

The other option, market timing, is the only way to beat systemic risk events, by being out of the market completely. Which I have to thank Surf for in his May call. . . i was traveling and didn't have access to trade, so i transfered 401K to cash second week of June, as i did the prior year on July 1st.

So the intersection is actually between investment fund and retirement fund marketing and their related management fee incentive and mass psychology of distrust of the message. Will the mass market 401K contributor continue to believe that mutual fund buy and hold message blindly, or will this portfolio destruction cause the mass market to give up on saving in stocks, and turn to another investment vehicle for retirement?

I believe that at the moment, the mass market will still believe, unless the market actually craters another 50%, a real crash unlike 87, which was an internal market event, not a worldwide deflation event. Then I think that the emotional damage will be so great, along with a deep recession, that the mutual fund marketing of the modern portfolio theory will be lost for a couple of generations.

I am not sure that this fits game theory of a mass market.. . .

sportsguy
 
Quote from markyhabs2:

I agree with Surf...The main reason is that a recession, bad news soon will be factored into the market just as rate cuts are. Then any good news will entail the bottom...yes there will be a few up and down days but all negative earnings from our trading house have now been factored in. IBM could come in with a massive loss but we are expecting this anyway arnt we? if they dont its a bonus and a good one! You then have to look to the horizon..
you wont see many firms making much profit this year, did you expect anything else? so once again its factored in...look to the benifits of the bank restructuring...global efforts and so forth...you may find yourself buying not at the very bottom so dont expect to...if you buy 10% from the bottom you have done well if you are a long term investor....i dont think you would want to shot sell this close to a bottom as its too risky..
More...


thanks. the roaring bull is right around the corner-- the market really has no choice here. thanks for the analysis!

surf
 
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