The Surf Report

[Thunderdog]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Yeah, very wrong today.

too bad I can't be kreskin all the time.


surf

"Today?" Your proclamation is a tad more sweeping than that:

Quote from marketsurfer:

... this intervention should result in the greatest bull market of all time...

Surf, why do you keep putting yourself out there with outrageous forecasts? Is it the attention? Don't you think that maybe that kind of confidence should be at least loosely aligned with some modicum of capability?

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Thunderdog:

"Today?" Your proclamation is a tad more sweeping than that:

Surf, why do you keep putting yourself out there with outrageous forecasts? Is it the attention? Don't you think that maybe that kind of confidence should be at least loosely aligned with some modicum of capability?

I still strongly believe the intervention will result in a huge bull stock market rally to all time highs.

Just because I am struggling with the micro entry/exits timing doesn't invalidate my premise of all time highs by 4.2009. No one can time the market in the microsense with perfection.
Although i try...


surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from EPrado:

Wow..thats ugly Surf......I dont see JWH on there...I wonder why.



Perhaps because they were up 20% in September and most likely crushing it again in October.


Funny how your attack on trend followers has stopped while they are making a killing and most everyone else is getting crushed. In the end and over time, they are the best traders.

I wonder how VN is doin these days trading his own money. Hopefully he isnt selling puts.......again.

interesting, thanks. can you link me up with JWH's performance recent performance stats?

VN looked and sounded happy last time we spoke---no idea how his accounts are doing.

surf

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from marketsurfer:

I still strongly believe the intervention will result in a huge bull stock market rally to all time highs.

Just because I am struggling with the micro entry/exits timing doesn't invalidate my premise of all time highs by 4.2009. No one can time the market in the microsense with perfection.
Although i try...


surf

Yes, but that pesky "micro entry/exits timing" thing is what generally separates winning trades from losing trades.

As an aside, when the patient is undergoing emergency surgery for what the doctors report to be massive trauma, don't you think it's a bit flip to immediately turn around and predict that he will win gold at the upcoming Olympic games and break a new record?

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Yes, but that pesky "micro entry/exits timing" thing is what generally separates winning trades from losing trades.

As an aside, when the patient is undergoing emergency surgery for what the doctors report to be massive trauma, don't you think it's a bit flip to immediately turn around and predict that he will win gold at the upcoming Olympic games and break a new record?

its what speculators do. we speculate because we don't know.

regardless of what you read here on elite trader, the future is unwritten. its all part of the game.

surf

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from marketsurfer:

its what speculators do. we speculate because we don't know.

regardless of what you read here on elite trader, the future is unwritten. its all part of the game.

surf

Forgive me, but how does your post have anything at all to do with my post, which you quoted?

And as for the future being unwritten, you may wish to take this very observation to heart and cut back on the bold proclamations and predictions that you cannot seem to help but proffer. You would think that a speculator trading his own money would be a bit more circumspect about this unwritten future of which you speak.

 

[sportsguy]

Surf,

Modern portfolio theory deals with how to diversify away risk, except systemic risk, in exchange for return. Excellent analysis can be found on seekingalpha.com by Geoff/Jeff Considine. BUT, in grad school or otherwise, there is very little study for handling systemic risk, which is what is occurring at the moment.

Systemic risk occurs very seldom, and mostly after long periods of success and beyond generations, ie, once in a lifetime type events. Systemic risk situations are unique, but the lender of last resort handling of them determines the outcome, unlike portfolio theory. Systemic risk can't be modelled well because of the psychological reactions which may occur.

The most important point is that the future is very uncertain, and more uncertain in these times of systemic risk. So there are few historical comparisions to draw upon because the financial markets are so different between events. . . The deep psychological damage is done when the market is at recent relatively cheap valuations, and investors wade back in, and then the market falls significantly further. . . .

sportsguy

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Forgive me, but how does your post have anything at all to do with my post, which you quoted?

And as for the future being unwritten, you may wish to take this very observation to heart and cut back on the bold proclamations and predictions that you cannot seem to help but proffer. You would think that a speculator trading his own money would be a bit more circumspect about this unwritten future of which you speak.

your paitent is being turned into the BIONIC MAN. better, faster and smarter than before--- yes, I am betting on him!!

perhaps getting over your own fear of being wrong and making mistakes would be a good place to start. as i have always stated, position sizing is the key. Its my journal, if you don't get information or entertainment from it, why do you read it?

surf

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from sportsguy:

Surf,

Modern portfolio theory deals with how to diversify away risk, except systemic risk, in exchange for return. Excellent analysis can be found on seekingalpha.com by Geoff/Jeff Considine. BUT, in grad school or otherwise, there is very little study for handling systemic risk, which is what is occurring at the moment.

Systemic risk occurs very seldom, and mostly after long periods of success and beyond generations, ie, once in a lifetime type events. Systemic risk situations are unique, but the lender of last resort handling of them determines the outcome, unlike portfolio theory. Systemic risk can't be modelled well because of the psychological reactions which may occur.

The most important point is that the future is very uncertain, and more uncertain in these times of systemic risk. So there are few historical comparisions to draw upon because the financial markets are so different between events. . . The deep psychological damage is done when the market is at recent relatively cheap valuations, and investors wade back in, and then the market falls significantly further. . . .

sportsguy

Thank you, sportsguy. Excellent and insightful post. My grandfather lived during the depression thus developed a depression mindset--i believe this is what you are refering to when you say deep psych damage but over the entire population as a whole and not individual examples. My grandfather built a small empire in realestate/stocks, was well off, but due to the depression mindset never enjoyed the fruits of his labor because he was afraid to spend or enjoy money in anyway other than cash flow, apprieciating investments. as I said, the future is unwritten--take your best shot, while positioned sized to absorb the loss, and calculate for the best.

best,

surf

 

[annaland]

Quote from sportsguy:

Surf,

Modern portfolio theory deals with how to diversify away risk, except systemic risk, in exchange for return. Excellent analysis can be found on seekingalpha.com by Geoff/Jeff Considine. BUT, in grad school or otherwise, there is very little study for handling systemic risk, which is what is occurring at the moment.

Systemic risk occurs very seldom, and mostly after long periods of success and beyond generations, ie, once in a lifetime type events. Systemic risk situations are unique, but the lender of last resort handling of them determines the outcome, unlike portfolio theory. Systemic risk can't be modelled well because of the psychological reactions which may occur.

The most important point is that the future is very uncertain, and more uncertain in these times of systemic risk. So there are few historical comparisions to draw upon because the financial markets are so different between events. . . The deep psychological damage is done when the market is at recent relatively cheap valuations, and investors wade back in, and then the market falls significantly further. . . .

sportsguy

I might be looking too deep here and if all you are saying is that systematic risk hasn’t been explained (well) since investor incentives are difficult to model then I understand. However, to me your post sounds like you’re pointing to an intersection of portfolio and game theory. Therefore, I assume you’re getting at something other than I’ve indicated above. If so, please specify. Thanks guy.