Quote from ProfLogic:
I got in on a nice position short Gold early yesterday morning but will be traveling for the next couple days and unable to monitor it. I hold you responsible Surf . . . just kidding.
The Surf Report
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Think about the real implication a bit ...
Socialist banking system, where all banks over the world work like the US postal service. Lose money, expected. Make money, not to the best interest to the countries as the countrymen are the real shareholders.
In short, banks will be run like US postal service in very short period of time.
If that is true, the money pumped into the system will have a very slim chance of landing into the right place due to the way it is structured now.
A huge short squeeze, yes. A solution, not yet.
You "go" Lawrence. I'm right with you on this. Prosperity amongst all of this socialism ? Surf - did you attend Columbia University or someplace similar ?Quote from Lawrence Chan:
Think about the real implication a bit ...
Socialist banking system, where all banks over the world work like the US postal service. Lose money, expected. Make money, not to the best interest to the countries as the countrymen are the real shareholders.
In short, banks will be run like US postal service in very short period of time.
If that is true, the money pumped into the system will have a very slim chance of landing into the right place due to the way it is structured now.
A huge short squeeze, yes. A solution, not yet.
Capital will never be allocated optimally in a socialist environment.
My April 2009 call: 10% unemployment rate (Of course this would be understated by 50% as is the current rate)
I trust that you are joking?
New high for a bear market can happen as the US indices are no longer a true representation of the underlying US economy any more. e.g. many companies are global.
The transition from, on average, higher income with big spending to lower income with restricted spending on individual level can have profound impact on all walks of life.
Not sure I want to see that happening.
Quote from Lawrence Chan:
Think about the real implication a bit ...
Socialist banking system, where all banks over the world work like the US postal service. Lose money, expected. Make money, not to the best interest to the countries as the countrymen are the real shareholders.
In short, banks will be run like US postal service in very short period of time.
If that is true, the money pumped into the system will have a very slim chance of landing into the right place due to the way it is structured now.
A huge short squeeze, yes. A solution, not yet.
I concur with you regarding a true socialist banking system. however what is happening here is far from true socialism. our government is participating in the free market as a profit seeking partner. it is my understanding that the Fed is seeking to flip the debt for profit to other economies or back into our own system once apprieciation takes place. I really believe this could be a huge win win for everyone, including the free market. In addition, the funds will be managed by private entities not the government directly.
surf
No, I am dead serious.
Does it make a difference where the funds come from? The result will be the same regardless of source. Expecting all time highs by April 09. remember, the funds are being managed by private entities for profit.
surf
Black Swan Vindicated and some stocks we are watching.....
Stocks closed down across the board on profit taking after yesterdayâs historic rally. The DJIA still remains over 30% below its October 2007 highs. Popular author and money manager, Nasim Taleb, whose Black Swan theory and book promoted shooting for rare occurrences in the market is thriving in this volatile environment. His advisory clients have profited over 50% this year, vindicating his often unfairly maligned ideas, per Bloomberg. The DJIA closed down -76.62 to 9310.99, the Nasdaq fell -65.24 to 1779.01 and the S&P 500 gave back -5.34 to 998.01.
Citigroup (C | ) - Added 18.73% or $2.95 to $18.70/share after Henry Paulson advised that the government will buy stakes in individual banks. This statement resulted in the entire sector rallying.
Boeing (BA | fell 4.27% or $2.01 to $45.07/share on failing union negotiations that resulted in a 6th straight week of idle factories.
JB Hunt (JBHT | - The trucking company climbed 9.67% or $2.78 to $31.53/share on increasing quarterly profits due to hauling more freight.
NewStar Financial NEWS - The middle market lending company dropped hard 24.30% or $1.90 to $5.92/share after being downgraded by JP Morgan.
Oil dipped another $1.90 to $79.29, gold slipped $2.70 to $839.80 and the VIX index .36% to 55.19.
Stocks closed down across the board on profit taking after yesterdayâs historic rally. The DJIA still remains over 30% below its October 2007 highs. Popular author and money manager, Nasim Taleb, whose Black Swan theory and book promoted shooting for rare occurrences in the market is thriving in this volatile environment. His advisory clients have profited over 50% this year, vindicating his often unfairly maligned ideas, per Bloomberg. The DJIA closed down -76.62 to 9310.99, the Nasdaq fell -65.24 to 1779.01 and the S&P 500 gave back -5.34 to 998.01.
Citigroup (C | ) - Added 18.73% or $2.95 to $18.70/share after Henry Paulson advised that the government will buy stakes in individual banks. This statement resulted in the entire sector rallying.
Boeing (BA | fell 4.27% or $2.01 to $45.07/share on failing union negotiations that resulted in a 6th straight week of idle factories.
JB Hunt (JBHT | - The trucking company climbed 9.67% or $2.78 to $31.53/share on increasing quarterly profits due to hauling more freight.
NewStar Financial NEWS - The middle market lending company dropped hard 24.30% or $1.90 to $5.92/share after being downgraded by JP Morgan.
Oil dipped another $1.90 to $79.29, gold slipped $2.70 to $839.80 and the VIX index .36% to 55.19.
Victor Niederhoffer Observations:
A Few Observations, from Victor Niederhoffer
October 12, 2008 |
1. Of the 100 biggest markets around the world, almost all are down 40- 60% in dollar terms with the exceptions' being Tunisia and Botswana. The impact of the decline this week, unless rapidly reversed, is going to be very severe on purchases. The previous 20% caused great angst; imagine what this decline will do to those who rely on retirements. The positive feedback of the decline in a negative direction also impacts the election results with every market decline making it more likely the Republicans will be blamed for the situation.
2. The worst aspect of the decline this week from a health point of view was that fixed income around the world cratered, thereby reducing world wealth by a good 15% as opposed to the normal situation where the equities go down 10% and the fixed incomes go up 8% leaving total wealth down only a little. And the people that talked about how bearish it was for stocks because commodities were up would never say that it's bullish now because commodities are down 40% over the past four months.
3. A new word should enter the market vocabulary, a waterboarding decline, being a decline that seems to have a breath of life at the open before going into a death spiral.
4. Because of the decline in all sectors, the wealth/price ratio has stayed relatively constant with corn, copper, soybeans, wheat and oil down 40- 50% since June 30, thereby keeping the number of bushels and barrels we can buy with one DJIA relatively constant, making the number of ounces of gold you can buy with the Dow less than 10 for the first time in a googol, and looking like a bargain for the Dow.
http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=3218
A Few Observations, from Victor Niederhoffer
October 12, 2008 |
1. Of the 100 biggest markets around the world, almost all are down 40- 60% in dollar terms with the exceptions' being Tunisia and Botswana. The impact of the decline this week, unless rapidly reversed, is going to be very severe on purchases. The previous 20% caused great angst; imagine what this decline will do to those who rely on retirements. The positive feedback of the decline in a negative direction also impacts the election results with every market decline making it more likely the Republicans will be blamed for the situation.
2. The worst aspect of the decline this week from a health point of view was that fixed income around the world cratered, thereby reducing world wealth by a good 15% as opposed to the normal situation where the equities go down 10% and the fixed incomes go up 8% leaving total wealth down only a little. And the people that talked about how bearish it was for stocks because commodities were up would never say that it's bullish now because commodities are down 40% over the past four months.
3. A new word should enter the market vocabulary, a waterboarding decline, being a decline that seems to have a breath of life at the open before going into a death spiral.
4. Because of the decline in all sectors, the wealth/price ratio has stayed relatively constant with corn, copper, soybeans, wheat and oil down 40- 50% since June 30, thereby keeping the number of bushels and barrels we can buy with one DJIA relatively constant, making the number of ounces of gold you can buy with the Dow less than 10 for the first time in a googol, and looking like a bargain for the Dow.
http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=3218
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